2022 pecking order speculation

[Ryar]

Good & well reasoned, but Newey got the narrow cars right first time with McLaren in 1998, which lead to 2 years of domination and only Ferrari (Todt, Brawn, Schumacher) able to provide any challenge in 2000

Adrian Newey is one of the greatest race car designers of all time but, he has his weaknesses too. As seen trough history, more then once he just packed the car to tight or being to radical. His designs always had reliability problems with the early versions. Also, he is a master in evolving designs where with the new rules, it’s all new. For instance. If you look at the innovations he put into the Leyton House cars, he put them into the Williams straight after the same as his RedBulls had a lot of cues from the late McLarens (and all were fragile). Only in recent seasons the RB’s were reliable.

Don't you think the reliability is more mechnical side than his chassis design? With more tighter regulations and cost cap, teams are producing more reliable components. For example, everyone anticipated a gear box penalty for Max after Saudi quali, but there was no problem and Honda produced most reliable engine on the grid. He can be accused guilty of packaging the cars tight, leaving little room for the components to breath, but overheating was never a primary issue for the RB cars, but it was generally unreliable Renault components of the past (even the Mercedes components of 2002/03 in his McLaren days).

[Hoffman900]

While I think Adrian Newey is a car design genius, I think it’s disingenuous to credit his success to just himself and that they’re wholly his designs.

It’s a minor point in this discussion, but I can’t help but comment when I see people credit Adrian for something as if he did himself.

[cooken]

11: Vettel (this is a bit of a wildcard. depends on how the cars behave. Planted rear? move him up 5 places)

This is from Mario Isola.
"I can say that the general comment from all the drivers was about understeer, it seems that our rear tyre is much stronger, it's pushing a lot the front. And the general feedback was on an understeer balance."

If that remains the case (I would think unlikely) then the likes of Max and Lewis will have less room for differentiation against their teammates.

[Jolle]

Good & well reasoned, but Newey got the narrow cars right first time with McLaren in 1998, which lead to 2 years of domination and only Ferrari (Todt, Brawn, Schumacher) able to provide any challenge in 2000

Adrian Newey is one of the greatest race car designers of all time but, he has his weaknesses too. As seen trough history, more then once he just packed the car to tight or being to radical. His designs always had reliability problems with the early versions. Also, he is a master in evolving designs where with the new rules, it’s all new. For instance. If you look at the innovations he put into the Leyton House cars, he put them into the Williams straight after the same as his RedBulls had a lot of cues from the late McLarens (and all were fragile). Only in recent seasons the RB’s were reliable.

Don't you think the reliability is more mechnical side than his chassis design? With more tighter regulations and cost cap, teams are producing more reliable components. For example, everyone anticipated a gear box penalty for Max after Saudi quali, but there was no problem and Honda produced most reliable engine on the grid. He can be accused guilty of packaging the cars tight, leaving little room for the components to breath, but overheating was never a primary issue for the RB cars, but it was generally unreliable Renault components of the past (even the Mercedes components of 2002/03 in his McLaren days).

Yes and no. A bit chunk of his cars unreliability came from the engine manufacturers he worked with but next to that, Newey isn’t known for any conservatism in his designs. Most of the times it’s brilliant but occasionally it bites back. The famous McLaren that never raced is a prime example but also the two battery KERS design at RedBull was challenging. We don’t know what caused the overheating problems with the early hybrid RedBulls was, but my guess is that he designs to win, so small margins.

[Hoffman900]

Adrian Newey is one of the greatest race car designers of all time but, he has his weaknesses too. As seen trough history, more then once he just packed the car to tight or being to radical. His designs always had reliability problems with the early versions. Also, he is a master in evolving designs where with the new rules, it’s all new. For instance. If you look at the innovations he put into the Leyton House cars, he put them into the Williams straight after the same as his RedBulls had a lot of cues from the late McLarens (and all were fragile). Only in recent seasons the RB’s were reliable.

Don't you think the reliability is more mechnical side than his chassis design? With more tighter regulations and cost cap, teams are producing more reliable components. For example, everyone anticipated a gear box penalty for Max after Saudi quali, but there was no problem and Honda produced most reliable engine on the grid. He can be accused guilty of packaging the cars tight, leaving little room for the components to breath, but overheating was never a primary issue for the RB cars, but it was generally unreliable Renault components of the past (even the Mercedes components of 2002/03 in his McLaren days).

Yes and no. A bit chunk of his cars unreliability came from the engine manufacturers he worked with but next to that, Newey isn’t known for any conservatism in his designs. Most of the times it’s brilliant but occasionally it bites back. The famous McLaren that never raced is a prime example but also the two battery KERS design at RedBull was challenging. We don’t know what caused the overheating problems with the early hybrid RedBulls was, but my guess is that he designs to win, so small margins.

They all design to win, so there likely was a lack of understanding the problem fully on his / his team’s end.

[Stu]

Exactly, the more headroom that is built in the heavier and less efficient the whole car becomes. Look at Mercedes in the last 2-3 years; works brilliantly in clean air, but when they don’t hit the sweet spot with set-up and start down the order they struggle with temperature (tyre and car).

[Big Tea]

While I think Adrian Newey is a car design genius, I think it’s disingenuous to credit his success to just himself and that they’re wholly his designs.

It’s a minor point in this discussion, but I can’t help but comment when I see people credit Adrian for something as if he did himself.

Was he not off designing a boat when the current car was being developed?

[Sevach]

11: Vettel (this is a bit of a wildcard. depends on how the cars behave. Planted rear? move him up 5 places)

This is from Mario Isola.
"I can say that the general comment from all the drivers was about understeer, it seems that our rear tyre is much stronger, it's pushing a lot the front. And the general feedback was on an understeer balance."

If that remains the case (I would think unlikely) then the likes of Max and Lewis will have less room for differentiation against their teammates.

The new cars will try to address that anyway they can, with the current ones it might fall out of their setup windows...
But still the tires are what they are, lost in this discussion about "18 inch" is that the front got narrower.

[taperoo2k]

While I think Adrian Newey is a car design genius, I think it’s disingenuous to credit his success to just himself and that they’re wholly his designs.

It’s a minor point in this discussion, but I can’t help but comment when I see people credit Adrian for something as if he did himself.

He is a genius, but it takes a good team around him to translate his ideas into reality. The trouble with Newey is he either spots an advantage in new regulations and exploits it from the get go or he pushes a concept too far so that it doesn't work as intended.

My main hope is the new design concept makes it easier to overtake, I'm not that fussed over who has the best design. If they can't overtake then it'll be a bore fest. The other factor in the pecking order is how well the drivers adapt to the new cars. But that's probably a discussion for a separate thread.

[BlueCheetah66]

[stan_french]

on a similar note:

[Hoffman900]

I’d believe that (Marko).

I’m in the camp there is going to be a lot of bluster, and until Q3 and Rd1, it’s just that.

I do not think the racing is going to be closer. Rules help, but the most important thing is a stable rule set.

[PlatinumZealot]

The cars will be pigs according to comments from drivers running them in the simulator.

Even if they are easier to follow, the passes won't look spactacular at all.

The sport will die if we have a runaway car and no action at all in the mid-field.

[Dee]

No 1 factor is the engine imo as the aero is so tightly regulated

[BlueCheetah66]

Scarborough seems to think there will actually be more variation than currently. Probably knows something that we don't