2022 pecking order speculation

[Scorpaguy]

Merc will be slow in testing and complain the new rule package has them struggling. Come race #1, they will have the fastest package.

RB will put up a worthy chase thru the season, but will be less effective due to Merc having 2 drivers.

Big Red will be satisfied besting the rest of the field as Bino has not the goods to fight with the big boys.

[Jambier]

The worst scenario would be Mercedes winning again.

Formula 1 need change, it always have change the rule to end some domination.

So Mercedes is « supposed » to lose. If not this is formula 1 losing.

Let’s see what the third top team can do: Ferrari. There is no reason for them to be behind the two other top team, so they have no choice but to win 2022

[El Scorchio]

Yea, because in the last 12 years we had two phases dominated by each of those teams one after another, not in a mixed fashion. With the totally new rules we will have a new phase again.

And in that new phase, I’d logically back the two teams with by far the best recent track record to be right at the sharp end again sooner or later. They’ve been shown to be the class of the field at innovating, adapting and developing.

A magic bullet found by another team a la Brawn 2009 will undoubtedly give a head start, but they WILL be chased down by RBR and MB. I’m not really sure why anyone would think otherwise.

The biggest factor which has made Mercedes and RedBull as competitive as they’ve been, is gone: unlimited amount of money.

The question is, if any of the big teams have found a way to kind of circumvent the budget cap to a certain extent. Of course, even if not, they’ll still have the advantage of better tools overall.

I’m excited!

That’s a valid point, although for me those two teams do have the superior staff and facilities which helps a lot, and TBH I can’t see either having gone down a wrong route initially and being miles off the pace anyway. Unless the ‘best’ initial design is miles away from theirs then there shouldn’t be drastic changes necessary. And let us not forget they still will have some very tidy engines in their chassis.

But I do agree it’s pretty exciting to see where everyone lands initially at pre season testing and the first race weekend. Biggest potential shake up by far since 2014

[mclaren113]

The worst scenario would be Mercedes winning again.

Formula 1 need change, it always have change the rule to end some domination.

So Mercedes is « supposed » to lose. If not this is formula 1 losing.

Let’s see what the third top team can do: Ferrari. There is no reason for them to be behind the two other top team, so they have no choice but to win 2022

F1 has always been about the best team with the best package, whether it's Mercedes or any other team!! stop hating!! Mercedes just outdone the rest of the field the last 8 years!!

[mclaren111]

The worst scenario would be Mercedes winning again.

Formula 1 need change, it always have change the rule to end some domination.

So Mercedes is « supposed » to lose. If not this is formula 1 losing.

Let’s see what the third top team can do: Ferrari. There is no reason for them to be behind the two other top team, so they have no choice but to win 2022

F1 has always been about the best team with the best package, whether it's Mercedes or any other team!! stop hating!! Mercedes just outdone the rest of the field the last 8 years!!

Fraudulently... They started 2 years before everyone (2010) on this PU & the FIA was just too desperate to get another Automaker into F1 to realize they were being manipulated...

[TNTHead]

I bet on McLaren as the dark horse... although hampered by engine/chassis integration not being a works team, they have put together excellent staff with for instance Seidl and Key.

[mclaren111]

I bet on McLaren as the dark horse... although hampered by engine/chassis integration not being a works team, they have put together excellent staff with for instance Seidl and Key.

Me too...

[mclaren113]

The worst scenario would be Mercedes winning again.

Formula 1 need change, it always have change the rule to end some domination.

So Mercedes is « supposed » to lose. If not this is formula 1 losing.

Let’s see what the third top team can do: Ferrari. There is no reason for them to be behind the two other top team, so they have no choice but to win 2022

F1 has always been about the best team with the best package, whether it's Mercedes or any other team!! stop hating!! Mercedes just outdone the rest of the field the last 8 years!!

Fraudulently... They started 2 years before everyone (2010) on this PU & the FIA was just too desperate to get another Automaker into F1 to realize they were being manipulated...

"Mercedes is « supposed » to lose" "Fraudulently" .. that's some serious statement and allegations woow

[AeroDynamic]

At the moment, the teams with the most pieces in place are:

Ferrari - new simulator tools, and they have shown this season they can go forwards instead of losing their way like they did in ‘18. They also have potentially been developing their new car with a more sustained and substantial effort going back more than one or two seasons.
Mercedes - they’ve been the benchmark in terms of pace of car R&D and engineering. They always go forwards and quicker than any other team can keep up.
McLaren - they’ve been going forward, and given James Key has come up with something outside of the box this past year, they have an outside chance of thinking up something no one else does, like Brawn.
Red Bull - have the best aerodynamicist in the sports history, they should still be top 4 easily but if they come out the box fastest they definitely got away with how much focus they put on the ‘21 season.

Can’t see anyone else. Alpine have sucked for years in aero and no new people are there to surprise us. Aston a Martin has big momentum in building up its personnel but nobody big and new has actually moved over there to work, it takes years. Recent history shows they’re good on a budget but making a fast car was only successful when they copied Mercedes closely in 2020, they don’t have anything to copy right now.


If Mercedes isn’t fastest, I’m going to guess Ferrari or McLaren start fastest early season with Mercedes’ fastest by the end. Red Bull maybe start 3rd or 4th but catch up to p2/p3 by the end.

If I had to bet on Ferrari or McLaren being back to the front, I’d bet on Ferrari. They’re the dark horses. But Mercedes’ seems a safe bet.

[Csmith1980]

The worst scenario would be Mercedes winning again.

Formula 1 need change, it always have change the rule to end some domination.

So Mercedes is « supposed » to lose. If not this is formula 1 losing.

Let’s see what the third top team can do: Ferrari. There is no reason for them to be behind the two other top team, so they have no choice but to win 2022

F1 has always been about the best team with the best package, whether it's Mercedes or any other team!! stop hating!! Mercedes just outdone the rest of the field the last 8 years!!

Fraudulently... They started 2 years before everyone (2010) on this PU & the FIA was just too desperate to get another Automaker into F1 to realize they were being manipulated...

Do you have a source for that claim?

[Tizz]

And in that new phase, I’d logically back the two teams with by far the best recent track record to be right at the sharp end again sooner or later. They’ve been shown to be the class of the field at innovating, adapting and developing.

A magic bullet found by another team a la Brawn 2009 will undoubtedly give a head start, but they WILL be chased down by RBR and MB. I’m not really sure why anyone would think otherwise.

The biggest factor which has made Mercedes and RedBull as competitive as they’ve been, is gone: unlimited amount of money.

The question is, if any of the big teams have found a way to kind of circumvent the budget cap to a certain extent. Of course, even if not, they’ll still have the advantage of better tools overall.

I’m excited!

That’s a valid point, although for me those two teams do have the superior staff and facilities which helps a lot, and TBH I can’t see either having gone down a wrong route initially and being miles off the pace anyway. Unless the ‘best’ initial design is miles away from theirs then there shouldn’t be drastic changes necessary. And let us not forget they still will have some very tidy engines in their chassis.

But I do agree it’s pretty exciting to see where everyone lands initially at pre season testing and the first race weekend. Biggest potential shake up by far since 2014

I think you made the point earlier that Merc has had the opportunity to explore the low rake aero concept exhaustingly as a consequence of their design decisions. I think that might be a key advantage as both Merc and RB will have comparable resources for the development of the new car.

[Neno]

Low rake aero concept from 2014-21 has nothing to do with possible 2022 low aero concept. Floor, venturi tunnels, no bargeboards, completely different front and rear wing design. Basically everything what makes car produce downforce is being created completely different way.

[henry]

Low rake aero concept from 2014-21 has nothing to do with possible 2022 low aero concept. Floor, venturi tunnels, no bargeboards, completely different front and rear wing design. Basically everything what makes car produce downforce is being created completely different way.

However the understanding of the suspension used to keep the low rake platform at a consistent orientation has not changed. Although some of the components used to do it are now no longer legal.

[Stu]

*maybe*….
Williams will produce a stonking car and platform and the much-maligned Alex Albon will become WDC.
I don’t really think that he did any worse against Verstappen in 2020 than Sergio Perez did in 2021.

[basti313]

F1 has always been about the best team with the best package, whether it's Mercedes or any other team!! stop hating!! Mercedes just outdone the rest of the field the last 8 years!!

Fraudulently... They started 2 years before everyone (2010) on this PU & the FIA was just too desperate to get another Automaker into F1 to realize they were being manipulated...

Do you have a source for that claim?

No, he can not have one because it is wrong.
It was Ferrari who lobbied for this super complicated engine that is not possible to integrate well if you are not a works team in blind anger against McLaren and RedBull.

The fraud came later by the FIA that did no find a balance between split turbo and normal turbo although it was forbidden by the rules (tokens not enough) to change from the bad concept to the better one.