2022 pecking order speculation

[chrisc90]

1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari
3. Mercedes
4. Alpha Tauri
5. McLaren
6. Aston Martin
7. Haas
8. Alpine
9. Alfa Romeo
10. Williams

For some reason, I think Haas is going to be a half decent team this year. Definitely had a couple rough years so hopefully they get back on track, as they were capable in previous years.

Unless Merc sorts the porpoise issue out - I think they could be in trouble, so a generous 3rd spot for them. If they cant get the straight line speed then they will be a sitting duck on the straights.

Alpha Tauri - can see doing half decent since they are technically the RB sister team - not sure how much the are allowed to 'copy' but I imagine the designers share a LOT of ideas.

Mclaren seem to have serious braking issues which they dont seem confident about sorting from the interviews today with the tam manager.

[basti313]

Teams that appear to have used 2021 as a holding year with very few upgrades (Haas, Alfa, Williams, Aston, maybe Ferrari(??)), have obviously been concentrating on their 2022 cars. Also expect the two Ferrari customer teams to make a step when they get the latest power store. McLaren have been fully 2022 since the summer break as well.
Mercedes seem to be in a similar position. RedBull have appeared to have been developing the RB16B right to the end.

With how the aero regs are defined there is unlikely to be a magic bullet there, but potentially a lot of detail design and experiment could gain performance (unless they ‘get lucky’ this year’s front-runners) will need to careful as playing catch-up is very limited due to the tunnel/CFD runs that are allowed.

I’m hoping for a couple of surprises!

I wrote this quite some time ago, I think that it still stands up. I’m still hoping for a couple of surprises!!

Which do you see?

To me the Haas looks surprisingly strong. Maybe it really runs again in the midfield.

Besides this I can not see much change.

[codetower]

If we are talking constructors, my guess would be:

1- Ferrari
2-3 RBR/Merc
4-6 McLaren/Alpine/Alpha Tauri
7- Alfa Romeo
8- Aston Martin
9- Haas
10- Williams

I think Ferrari have a stronger driver duo than Red Bulls, and a well balanced car this year. As good as Verstappen is (He could win the WDC again), I think the combination of Leclerc and Saint will win out, and Hamilton and Russell will also score good points.

I think Alpine and Alfa Romeo will surprise a bit as well.

[JPower]

I'm not seeing much difference from last year either. In no order(just tiers) on pace I'll go:

Tier 1
Mercedes
Red Bull
Ferrari

Tier 2
McLaren
Alpine
Alpha Tauri

Tier 3
Aston
Williams
Haas
Alfa

However, I don't see gaps as large as last year's. I fully expect Tier 2 will be able to mix it up on some tracks with Tier 1 especially McLaren.

Post testing, I think Tier 3 is closer to Tier 2 than I expected. To the point where it might be free for all depending on the track. However, I don't think Tier 2 is as close to Tier 1 as I thought.

The top 3 are solid though. I think Mercedes/Ferrari/Red Bull just have too much of a head start this season. It might take Mercedes a couple of races to understand their concept but I think they'll be as fast as ever.

[Stu]

Teams that appear to have used 2021 as a holding year with very few upgrades (Haas, Alfa, Williams, Aston, maybe Ferrari(??)), have obviously been concentrating on their 2022 cars. Also expect the two Ferrari customer teams to make a step when they get the latest power store. McLaren have been fully 2022 since the summer break as well.
Mercedes seem to be in a similar position. RedBull have appeared to have been developing the RB16B right to the end.

With how the aero regs are defined there is unlikely to be a magic bullet there, but potentially a lot of detail design and experiment could gain performance (unless they ‘get lucky’ this year’s front-runners) will need to careful as playing catch-up is very limited due to the tunnel/CFD runs that are allowed.

I’m hoping for a couple of surprises!

I wrote this quite some time ago, I think that it still stands up. I’m still hoping for a couple of surprises!!

Which do you see?

To me the Haas looks surprisingly strong. Maybe it really runs again in the midfield.

Besides this I can not see much change.

I’m seeing Haas & Alpine pulling a few surprises. Ferrari are also going to be up there. Most open season in years.

[AeroDynamic]

Current Season prediction:

Ferrari and Red Bull are going to fight for the title lead in the first 6 - 7 races. It will get intense, Leclerc, Sainz, Verstappen will have clashes that involve DNF's.
Mercedes are going to trundle around behind them trying to understand their package and make it work. Due to clashes at the top, it will bring the title contenders in their clutches. McLaren will be annoying with occasional weekends of outperforming the top 3.
The season will begin to converge in points in the final phase leaving the three teams in a credible title fight with Mercedes and Red Bull being faster than Ferrari by the end phase of the season.

Mercedes will have the edge on PU. When they figure out their car it will be very difficult to keep Hamilton and Russell down.

Who wins the title? who ever is fortunate enough reliability wise, and avoiding DNFs

[codetower]

I wrote this quite some time ago, I think that it still stands up. I’m still hoping for a couple of surprises!!

Which do you see?

To me the Haas looks surprisingly strong. Maybe it really runs again in the midfield.

Besides this I can not see much change.

I’m seeing Haas & Alpine pulling a few surprises. Ferrari are also going to be up there. Most open season in years.

I too see Alpine surprising a bit… as far as Haas, I’m not totally convinced. I could see the running full out today to try and lure some needed sponsorship. They might have been hiding the least of all teams.

[continuum16]

https://the-race.com/formula-1/mark-hu ... es-trails/

From Mark Hughes, approximately:

1-RB
2-Ferrari
{small gap}
3-Mercedes
{small gap}
4-McLaren (bit unknown with no long runs)
{small gap}
5-Haas
6-Alpine
7-Aston
8-AlphaTauri
9-Alfa
10-Williams

I’d expect Merc to join the top two and then leave Mclaren in no man’s land between the top 3 and the rest. Alpine/Aston especially hard to read, but I would expect both to develop more than the teams around them.

[GoranF1]

After reading Mark Hughes article about long runs here is my preddiction for early pecking order.

1.Redbull
2.Ferarri
3 Mclaren
4Mercedes
5 Alpine
6 AT
7 AM
8 Haas
9 AR
10 Williams

But, its going to be chaos os somekind and Alonso will win next week

[Mansell89]

I think RBR might have a couple of tenths cushion on Ferrari and then I actually think the field will be relatively tight front to back.

More restrictive rules and convergence in PU performance should make it closer.

Also think we might see some teams qualify well but struggle on a long distance with the porpoising etc.

[haza]

Call me bold but I still feel this will be the pecking order

Tier1
Ferrari

Redbull/McLaren ( still think macs going to be competitive despite the brake issues)

Mercedes

Tier2
Haas

Aston

Alfa

Alpha Tauri


Tier3
Alpine

Williams

[McL-H]

Tier 1
Red Bull
Ferrari
McLaren
Mercedes

Red Bull and Ferrari roughly equal in performance with McLaren en Mercedes competitive directly behind them (0.5 seconds tops)

Tier 2:
AlphaTauri
Haas
Aston Martin
Williams
Alpine
Sauber

Other teams 0.5-1.5 seconds behind the leaders. Very close. No backmarkers this year.

[JPBD1990]

Click the link to read the full thread. Much interesting stuff.

[silver]

Click the link to read the full thread. Much interesting stuff.

The rumors at the beginning of testing had Red Bull at over 15kg heavier. The article doesn't mention if they have reduced any of it as part of this upgrade. But it says it would be reduced by next week. If they are ahead as everyone suggests even with being overweight, they have done a good job as they have an easier way of gaining performance by losing some flab.

[Bill]

i doubt ferrari and Renault has closed the pu gap to merc and Honda.with Merc slightly strugling Rbr in the hand of Max will have it easy.