2022 pecking order speculation

[Stu]

Teams that appear to have used 2021 as a holding year with very few upgrades (Haas, Alfa, Williams, Aston, maybe Ferrari(??)), have obviously been concentrating on their 2022 cars. Also expect the two Ferrari customer teams to make a step when they get the latest power store. McLaren have been fully 2022 since the summer break as well.
Mercedes seem to be in a similar position. RedBull have appeared to have been developing the RB16B right to the end.

With how the aero regs are defined there is unlikely to be a magic bullet there, but potentially a lot of detail design and experiment could gain performance (unless they ‘get lucky’ this year’s front-runners) will need to careful as playing catch-up is very limited due to the tunnel/CFD runs that are allowed.

I’m hoping for a couple of surprises!

I wrote this quite some time ago, I think that it still stands up. I’m still hoping for a couple of surprises!!

[silver]

Mercedes didn't get it absolutely right in 2017, but had enough engine grunt to overcome the deficit. Then they developed the concept well over the course of the year and the years that followed. They once again lost all their advantage from 2020 when regulations were tweaked for 2021. It appears for 2022, they have badly got it all wrong. Unlike in the 2017+ years, where they could throw abundant money to develop the car, the budget cap since last year has been and an ongoing massive challenge. To further the misery, the PU is now frozen at a point where they seem to have fallen behind! This is going to be the biggest challenge yet for Mercedes.

[Henri]

Mercedes didn't get it absolutely right in 2017, but had enough engine grunt to overcome the deficit. Then they developed the concept well over the course of the year and the years that followed. They once again lost all their advantage from 2020 when regulations were tweaked for 2021. It appears for 2022, they have badly got it all wrong. Unlike in the 2017+ years, where they could throw abundant money to develop the car, the budget cap since last year has been and an ongoing massive challenge. To further the misery, the PU is now frozen at a point where they seem to have fallen behind! This is going to be the biggest challenge yet for Mercedes.

Stop lying Mercedes didnt get it wrong in 2017 they won easily lol

[silver]

Mercedes didn't get it absolutely right in 2017, but had enough engine grunt to overcome the deficit. Then they developed the concept well over the course of the year and the years that followed. They once again lost all their advantage from 2020 when regulations were tweaked for 2021. It appears for 2022, they have badly got it all wrong. Unlike in the 2017+ years, where they could throw abundant money to develop the car, the budget cap since last year has been and an ongoing massive challenge. To further the misery, the PU is now frozen at a point where they seem to have fallen behind! This is going to be the biggest challenge yet for Mercedes.

Stop lying Mercedes didnt get it wrong in 2017 they won easily lol

Perks of being dedicated fan!

[f1316]

It is interesting that the Mercedes customer teams are all struggling and implies it’s not just a drag issue slowing down the top speed of the works car.

Toto still seems to be projecting that they’ll get the PU sorted so that implies to me that it’s a reliability concern that is preventing them from getting the most out of the engine. If not, it would be almost impossible (there are some things not frozen until the summer) to recover. It’s also somewhat logical that all manufacturers will likely have taken some risks with the new PUs, given the only changes that they’ll be allowed to make are for reliability. It’s kinda surprising in a way that we aren’t seeing more PU issues tbh!

I have a bit of caution around Ferrari’s pace (as a Ferrari fan) as I remember how dominant Charles was in the 2019 Bahrain race too. After that race, it seemed like Australia was just a blip and the car would be competitive everywhere but that turned out not to be the case and the car really suited certain (power hungry) circuits. It doesn’t appear to me that the car has the same issues this year as it’s not purely about power seemingly, but it’s potentially a cautionary tale, lest we get carried away.

[JPower]

It is interesting that the Mercedes customer teams are all struggling and implies it’s not just a drag issue slowing down the top speed of the works car.

Ehhhh, the customer cars are all very compromised in their own ways aerodynamically. Can't really judge the PU from their performance either.

Who knows if its a coincidence or not, but all of them have missed the mark to begin the season.

[chrisc90]

It is interesting that the Mercedes customer teams are all struggling and implies it’s not just a drag issue slowing down the top speed of the works car.

Ehhhh, the customer cars are all very compromised in their own ways aerodynamically. Can't really judge the PU from their performance either.

Who knows if its a coincidence or not, but all of them have missed the mark to begin the season.

Chances of them all getting it wrong are slim I reckon. Look at Haas, not a single point last season and doing well now.

[JPower]

It is interesting that the Mercedes customer teams are all struggling and implies it’s not just a drag issue slowing down the top speed of the works car.

Ehhhh, the customer cars are all very compromised in their own ways aerodynamically. Can't really judge the PU from their performance either.

Who knows if its a coincidence or not, but all of them have missed the mark to begin the season.

Chances of them all getting it wrong are slim I reckon. Look at Haas, not a single point last season and doing well now.

There's nothing about Haas's performance over the last 2 years that would've transferred over to this year given their complete lack of investment into the 2020 and 2021 cars. They've been competitive in the past when Ferrari has a good PU because they are essentially the Ferrari B-Team.

The chances of them all getting it wrong aren't slim because we saw what the cars did yesterday. Aston was compromised due to its high ride height, Williams clearly is lacking downforce, and the McLaren has both brake and aero issues that it doesn't know how to solve yet.

[chrisc90]

Ehhhh, the customer cars are all very compromised in their own ways aerodynamically. Can't really judge the PU from their performance either.

Who knows if its a coincidence or not, but all of them have missed the mark to begin the season.

Chances of them all getting it wrong are slim I reckon. Look at Haas, not a single point last season and doing well now.

There's nothing about Haas's performance over the last 2 years that would've transferred over to this year given their complete lack of investment into the 2020 and 2021 cars. They've been competitive in the past when Ferrari has a good PU because they are essentially the Ferrari B-Team.

The chances of them all getting it wrong aren't slim because we saw what the cars did yesterday. Aston was compromised due to its high ride height, Williams clearly is lacking downforce, and the McLaren has both brake and aero issues that it doesn't know how to solve yet.

Just a coincidence they are all merc customer teams then? Even the commentators on Sky picked it up. 5 of the bottom 6 were merc PU customers

[JPower]

Chances of them all getting it wrong are slim I reckon. Look at Haas, not a single point last season and doing well now.

There's nothing about Haas's performance over the last 2 years that would've transferred over to this year given their complete lack of investment into the 2020 and 2021 cars. They've been competitive in the past when Ferrari has a good PU because they are essentially the Ferrari B-Team.

The chances of them all getting it wrong aren't slim because we saw what the cars did yesterday. Aston was compromised due to its high ride height, Williams clearly is lacking downforce, and the McLaren has both brake and aero issues that it doesn't know how to solve yet.

Just a coincidence they are all merc customer teams then?

Yes. They've all moved further away from Mercedes in performance from 2021.

Lando finished the race at Bahrain 47 seconds back of Lewis and 11 back of Bottas last year. Before the safety car this year, he was 80+ seconds back of Russell. Had the race gone normally, good chance he would've been lapped.

[holeindalip]

Williams is using the merc rear end, Aston Martin is using the merc wind tunnel until theirs is done, mclaren is a weird one though……

[dans79]

Williams is using the merc rear end, Aston Martin is using the merc wind tunnel until theirs is done, mclaren is a weird one though……

I don't think it's that's weird, McLaren hasn't finished higher than 3rd in the last decade. The last time the finished second was 2011.

[holeindalip]

Williams is using the merc rear end, Aston Martin is using the merc wind tunnel until theirs is done, mclaren is a weird one though……

I don't think it's that's weird, McLaren hasn't finished higher than 3rd in the last decade. The last time the finished second was 2011.

I was just trying to narrow down the common denominator besides the power unit, merc said they were carrying more drag than anyone else. Maybe the power units are just turned down until they get more data collection, or just waiting for the hybrid component upgrade.

Mclaren we’re on a upward trend though with a pretty good technical department