Here's some data:
gap graph
I don't see the case for Verstappen not pushing, he was gapping his team mate in Baku, no chance he's ok with a 4s gap to Sainz 2nd.
Sainz is clearly faster any time they are on the same tyre.
here's a cleaner look on it with lap times:
In this graph you can see Sainz had even better tyre deg in his stints as the gap in lap time is smaller at start than at the end.
Last 10+ laps of the race for the top 3:
Sainz is on average 15kph faster than Verstappen on main straight, 20kph+ in at least 2 laps.
Ham lifting and coasting at the hairpin, 0.1s cost
Sainz had to brake earlier in each corners due to being so close to Max and losing stopping power, except in the hairpin where Sainz tries to take a different line and not lose braking power, however it compromises his minimum speed even further.
This was last lap ALO v BOT. Alonso braking super late in each corner to prevent lounges, but he compromises the hairpin and his changes of direction in the straight force Bottas to brake. Clear as day penalty.