I was thinking a lot about this post and the latest information i got about Ferraris sudden performance loss. Should i share it or better do not say anything at all, as its a very delicate piece of information but also one that lacks deeper technical details. But as i really think it is very important and comes from reliable sources, i decided to share it.
If this information is true, what i honestly believe because of its origin, Ferraris 2022 season is literally lost as is its 2023 campaign, because Red Bull will have a massive developement advantage whereas Ferrari has literally to start from scratch.
I was told that TD39 did not only hurt Ferrari, but completely destroyed its aero-philosopy. I was told that the technical change has turned Ferraris brilliant sidepod design into a completely obsolete one. Unfortunately, as often in F1, it was not possible to get more detailed information. I want to underline again- this is no information thats "confirmed", but its from reliable sources. And it sounds very reasonable, especially after taking a closer look at Ferraris performances, car behaviour etc. and also the design of the F1-75.
I think its obvious since Zandvort that Ferrari got hurt massively by TD39. After analysing the laptimes of the last two races, i noticed that it does not matter which tyre Ferrari is using- after 10 or 11 there is a massive loss of performance. I assume contact frequencies are a problem in that regard, hardening and stiffening the compound. I also watched many many laps of onboard footage of Red Bull, Mercedes and Ferrari and i noticed that Ferrari is suddenly porpoising a lot. At Zandvort it was at three areas of the track, while the RB still has no or only a very gentle form of porpoising. The Mercedes has some porpoising, but very minior compared to the Ferrari. Also the Ferrari suddenly is sliding more and lost its traction advantage in slow corners. This could be down to a loss of downforce and aerodynamic load. The drivers are also complaining about the balance, something that used to be one of the strongpoints of the F1-75. The reason could also be a change/loss of aerodynamic load with its root in TD39.
The Venturi Tunnel-"Philosophy" of Ferrari probably is one of reasons. The Ferrari tunnels are very low, making maximum use of ground effect, but probably more dependant on low ride heights. Red Bulls tunnel roofs are higher and because of that probably designed to work with more ground clearance. I noticed that Red Bull uses a lot of vortices(new strakes create even more vortices now). So essentially Ferraris floor is totally dependant on the ground effect, while Red Bull relies more on vortices to improve the tunnels performance. Mercedes basically copied Red Bull "high-tunnel-roofs", what probably made them also less dependant on low ride heights and they can now can follow the same philosophy. Because of that, TD39 did not reall hurt Mercedes and Red Bull is not hurt at all because they are ahead of Mercedes in terms of their venturi-tunnel developement.
Ferraris aero-philosophy, basically is a "low-floor", designed to make maximum use of the ground effect additionaly driven in a way by the rear-beamwing assembly to produce superior downforce. To do this and maximise the downforce, Ferraris sidepod and engine cover was designed in a way to make the rear and beamwing work much better than the ones on other cars. The rear/beamwing assembly is the device with the strongest upwash, this "drives" the floor much better than leading air over the top of the diffuser. The bathtub sidepods equalled the additional drag that this philosophy probably induced. A brilliant and probably superior concept because the floor produced more downforce than other concepts without any drag penalty because of the sidepod design. But highly dependant on low ride heights because of the low tunnel roof that only works in close proximaty to the ground. With TD39 now in place Ferrari cannot use low ride heights and the drag-ratio of the rear/beamwing assembly probably has changed, too, with the "bathtub-effect" not giving an advantage anymore. So Ferraris aero-philosophy and sidepod design is completely corrupted.
I may be wrong, but thats how i think TD39 has "made a brilliant design obsolete"(thats exactly what i was told). To make things even worse, the disadvantages from being on the backfoot now in terms of tunnel-design and developement, will make a successfull 2023 highly unlikely. And, if this is information is true, it will diminish Red Bulls performance and everything they achieve, as it was down to an unecessary rule change, initiated by another team to do exactly that - weaken the opposition. Only that Red Bull had the luck to have chosen an aero-philosophy that did not get hurt. What makes the 2022(and probably even the 2023 WCC)WCC a championship decided by random and luck, not by technical abilities, knowledge, driver-talent and developement. What would really be a shame.
Finally i want to say again that my theory about how the Aero-Philosophy/Concept of the F1-75 was corrupted my be wrong completely or wrong partwise. So please correct me if i am wrong and maybe there is someone with more knowledge about Venturi-Tunnels who has a better explaination.