organic wrote: ↑16 Sep 2022, 18:47
Take Spa: if you look at stint 2 and ignore stint 1 & 3 as stint 2 is the one where Max was still pushing & on comparable strategy to Perez. Perez was 9 tenths slower throughout the stint. The margin was significantly favourable for Perez as fieldspread gave him about 20 seconds in the first stint and in the third stint Max drove to a delta that was essentially Perez's laptime. 9 tenths is exactly "far off". Throw in that Leclerc was not involved at the front at Spa, and maybe if he was maybe Perez doesn't even nick 2nd? Unless RB is ridiculously dominant at Mexico, I can't see the margin ever being comfortable enough that RB would consider inverting max/checo if they somehow ended up 1-2. Throw in a competitive Mercedes who Checo has been behind at recent races like France, Zandvoort and we can't hope for a lucky DNF that allows him to be 2nd easily since it'd require a miracle
Max had a brand new engine in Spa and presumably a faster car. But Spa is Spa, Mexico is Mexico.
If Max has sealed the WDC by then, then Red Bull may shift focus to
Marko's 2nd stated goal of the season which is to finish the season 1-2 in the WDC, which means they will put effort into ensuring CHECO gets as many points as possible to beat Leclerc. The margin for that would be to have Checo finish with as much gap to Leclerc, Sainz, and Russell in the remaining races after Max's WDC is sealed. So unless Max or Marko insist that 9-10 wins in a row is a goal that takes priority over Checo finishing 2nd in the WDC, I don't see it unreasonable to have Checo finish 1st in Mexico, in his home race, with Max finishing 2nd ahead of Leclerc to boost Checo's points difference.
It's nothing to get worked up about, really.