2021 Cost Cap Rumours and Speculation

[Mattchu]

People arguing over "investigation" or "analysis" They pretty much mean the same thing (synonym)!

https://www.thefreedictionary.com/synonym

https://www.thesaurus.com/browse/analysis

https://www.thesaurus.com/browse/investigation

The forum really is the pits nowadays!

My take is whoever has infringed (if anyone) will get off lightly, the FIA has less teeth than gurning Jim and most stuff is conveniently swept under their very large carpet...

[mendis]

My take is whoever has infringed (if anyone) will get off lightly, the FIA has less teeth than gurning Jim and most stuff is conveniently swept under their very large carpet...

Or it's all might be just a figment of imagination and people want FIA to dance to this imagination.

Steps to a successful propaganda.
1. Create rumours of misappropriation.
2. Fuel using social media.
3. Force the targeted party to act on pressure.
4. Cause damage if the propaganda reaps fruit, ELSE, demean the target if the outcome is inversed.

[GrizzleBoy]

My take is whoever has infringed (if anyone) will get off lightly, the FIA has less teeth than gurning Jim and most stuff is conveniently swept under their very large carpet...

Or it's all might be just a figment of imagination and people want FIA to dance to this imagination.

Steps to a successful propaganda.
1. Create rumours of misappropriation.
2. Fuel using social media.
3. Force the targeted party to act on pressure.
4. Cause damage if the propaganda reaps fruit, ELSE, demean the target if the outcome is inversed.

What is your reasoning for why the FIA did not issue the teams their comiance certificates today as they planned to since the start of the year and why do they need to delay till Monday?

Surely the easy way to kill the drama and end speculation is to just give everyone their certificates, since every did a good job and complied and the idea that anyone has not is just fiction.

[chrisc90]

My take is whoever has infringed (if anyone) will get off lightly, the FIA has less teeth than gurning Jim and most stuff is conveniently swept under their very large carpet...

Or it's all might be just a figment of imagination and people want FIA to dance to this imagination.

Steps to a successful propaganda.
1. Create rumours of misappropriation.
2. Fuel using social media.
3. Force the targeted party to act on pressure.
4. Cause damage if the propaganda reaps fruit, ELSE, demean the target if the outcome is inversed.

What is your reasoning for why the FIA did not issue the teams their comiance certificates today as they planned to since the start of the year and why do they need to delay till Monday?

Surely the easy way to kill the drama and end speculation is to just give everyone their certificates, since every did a good job and complied and the idea that anyone has not is just fiction.

I guess it depends on interpretation of the rules. Which bits are specifically included or excluded.

[djones]

This is odd because they said they'd announce this today, so it would have meant the analysis was supposed to be done.

The retraction and subsequent extension to Monday indicate that someone was unhappy with the result. So at best, a recheck is being made and at worst, a deal is being struck.

I'd guess a deal is being struck.

Redbull receiving a big punishment in public or the FIA saying their budget caps were a failure does not help F1 as a business.

[chrisc90]

This is odd because they said they'd announce this today, so it would have meant the analysis was supposed to be done.

The retraction and subsequent extension to Monday indicate that someone was unhappy with the result. So at best, a recheck is being made and at worst, a deal is being struck.

I'd guess a deal is being struck.

Redbull receiving a big punishment in public or the FIA saying their budget caps were a failure does not help F1 as a business.

Why is it still Red Bull? As far as we know officially, it could be any of the other 9 teams on the grid.

[Stu]

This is odd because they said they'd announce this today, so it would have meant the analysis was supposed to be done.

The retraction and subsequent extension to Monday indicate that someone was unhappy with the result. So at best, a recheck is being made and at worst, a deal is being struck.

I'd guess a deal is being struck.

Redbull receiving a big punishment in public or the FIA saying their budget caps were a failure does not help F1 as a business.

Why is it still Red Bull? As far as we know officially, it could be any of the other 9 teams on the grid.

Because, reasons…..


Obvious internet/social media logic…

[djones]

Becasue the boss of Mercedes and Ferari said its Redbull is not a good enough reason to suspect the same?

These two ultimately have their own things to gain, but equally, they have nothing to gain mouthing off as they have without some good evidence in the background.

I'd take what they say as more realistic than every poster on every F1 forum combined in this particular case.

[Stu]

Equally the split plank/plank deformation rule clarification/measurement change was supposed to really hit two teams, however the reality is slightly different. The rumour mill grinds on endlessly…

[djones]

Equally the split plank/plank deformation rule clarification/measurement change was supposed to really hit two teams, however the reality is slightly different. The rumour mill grinds on endlessly…

True.

It likely did hit two teams, but they were so far ahead (one in particular) it might have not been demonstrated the same as if things were closer. Wild guess here, but remember the days when Mercedes were so dominant they basically drove around at 90%? I think Redbull in particular probably has a similar situation now. You could pull all sorts off their car and it would still be a beast.

[carisi2k]

My suspicion is that the FIA look bad because somehow Toto and Ferrari seem to know a lot of info about Red Bull and now they have to figure out how this info is getting to Toto early and it isn't just about this cost cap but also things like the extra stay that Mercedes brought to Canada, TD039 and this supposed new lightweight chassis of Red Bull's. Either the FIA or Red Bull have a mole and I suspect it is the FIA because if Red Bull had found a mole then there would be sackings.

[PlatinumZealot]

If that’s what brawn’s says will happen then why are there multiple different penalties for a minor and major breach?

In F1 there is no minor breach. 0.5mm on a rear DRS flap cost a disqualification for two teams recently.

Why should a deliberate decision on luxury spending be gently punished?

[Big Tea]

There must be some allowance on this though. They cannot draw a line on the day and the penny as things take time to clear or for a bill to be cleared. If it is a million surely that is trivial.
OK, its past the trigger point, so impose a punishment, but not something that is going to change much.
As someone here said, say 2.5 mill off for the next 2 years or something.

[Just_a_fan]

My suspicion is that the FIA look bad because somehow Toto and Ferrari seem to know a lot of info about Red Bull and now they have to figure out how this info is getting to Toto early and it isn't just about this cost cap but also things like the extra stay that Mercedes brought to Canada, TD039 and this supposed new lightweight chassis of Red Bull's. Either the FIA or Red Bull have a mole and I suspect it is the FIA because if Red Bull had found a mole then there would be sackings.

Possible collusion between the FIA and a team is a different issue to the budget cap. To try to conflate them is to attempt deflection from something that is, if done deliberately, cheating is just that - deflection.

As to how Toto might or might not know what is happening at Red Bull, how many people did Red Bull attract across from Mercedes? Are they all instantly loyal to Red Bull? Are they all happy having moved? Do they still have friendships with people in Mercedes? Lots of ways that information, even just vague hearsay, can get out of an organisation. It happens all the time across industry, government and the military in most/all countries. F1 isn't special.

[chrisc90]

If that’s what brawn’s says will happen then why are there multiple different penalties for a minor and major breach?

In F1 there is no minor breach. 0.5mm on a rear DRS flap cost a disqualification for two teams recently.

Why should a deliberate decision on luxury spending be gently punished?

There is a no minor breach though. Its written in the rule book. Minor and major rule breach with a list of the possible penalties for each.

Which basically turns it into a risk vs reward situation.

Is it worth having a 5% over spend, and facing a deduction in WCC points, is it worth a public reprimand?, Is it worth a reduced wind tunnel time?

I mean if you know for a fact that a spend of 7million over your budget, is going to help develop a car for the next 4-5years, then it makes very good sense to do it.

If it was similar to the DRS rule, then the rules would say the penalty is always harsher than the gain.

If you had a business that could spend a extra 7million, knowing that that spend in that season is going to give you a huge advantage for the next 4-5 years to come, in being much more competitive than your competition AND knowing that your only likely to get a slap on the wrist publicly, or you lose a handful of points for the season IN THE PAST, what would you do?