European Union bans sale of petrol and diesel cars from 2035

[hollus]

Is that graph a lazy linear extrapolation of a lazy linear fit???!!!

Ok, now that I have said the words “linear” and “extrapolation” in the same sentence, excuse me as I go to wash my mouth with soap or something stronger.


hmmm… “the EIA projects that, absent significant changes in policy or technology…”

I thought so. Sure.

[gruntguru]

Yet someone is closing down coal-fired power stations at a greater rate than China is building them. Coal is clearly at a tipping point.

[johnny comelately]

Yet someone is closing down coal-fired power stations at a greater rate than China is building them. Coal is clearly at a tipping point.

https://i.imgur.com/N7WQx08.png

I agree but the downturn also reflects consumption from the Covid effect.

[Andres125sx]

I priced out Chris Bowen's 'plan'


"For example, to achieve Australia’s emissions reduction target of 43% by 2030, it’s estimated that we will need to install about forty 7-megawatt wind turbines every month until 2030.

For solar, while Australia is a global leader in deployment, we still need to install more than 22,000 five hundred-watt panels every day – and 60 million by 2030."

https://minister.dcceew.gov.au/bowen/sp ... do-pacific

So let's do the dismal task of putting some $ on this pie in the sky nonsense.

Wind turbines cost about $1.3million US ($2M AUD) per MW. Solar costs about $1/W.

So our eminent politician says that we need to spend 280*12*1.3 +11*200 million a year, about $6.6 billion (US) a year. but, we'll also be phasing out baseline powerstations, so we'll need storage as well. We also need power lines, lots of them. Generously assuming that'll only double the cost, $13B a year, about 1% of GDP. Every year. To make 0.0% difference in global CO2 emissions.
I give it until 2027.

Omitted from your analysis:
1. What is the cost of business as usual? (Meet expanding demand, replace aging power stations, ongoing higher electricity cost of fossil fueled plants.)
2. Will PV and Wind turbine prices stop falling?

https://i.imgur.com/1udzw9q.png

Also omitted from that analysis:

- They´re assuming the whole reduction in emissions must come from energy generation, ignoring other sectors
- Home heating will have a drastic emissions reduction in next years, with much more strict isolation requirement wich are reducing energy demand. When comparing a building from 20 year ago to a new one, energy demand can be reduced a 90%, so year by year home heating will drastically reduce energy demands
- Transportation, Euro 6 is so much more strict emissions from vehicles are being cut also drastically, even if we do not take into account EVs rise

[Tommy Cookers]

well ....
for 10 years on this site I have been saying that .....
the decarbonisation of heating is far bigger and so more important than the decarbonisation of our cars
(yes I have noticed that ...after 10 years of disagreeing with the above point Andres now agrees it)

for 5 years I have said therefore ....the car and the home are competing for the same decarbonised electricity

I have complained for 20 years eg to our broadcasters that the UK (las per the EU) presents the lie that .....
% decarbonisation of electricity (because presented as % decarbonisation of energy) is the % decarbonisation of all energy

eg recently in formal reply to a House of Lords question the UK government spokesperson falsely stated that ......
43 % is the present UK ('decarbonised') energy percentage
correctly it is 43 % of only the present UK (decarbonised aka renewable) electrical energy

43% (of electrical energy) was the actual value in 2021
importantly this is less than the 2020 actual value - because 2020 was unusually windy

when Joe Public goes to the EV car he is robbing Joe Public's home heat pump

[MadMax]

And now the UK might stop the development of a new nuclear power station that could supply 7% of the UK's electricity requirements. That isn't going to help their move to a carbon-neutral future, is it?

[Honda Porsche fan]

Fusion Power for the future?

Lockheed Martin Compact Fusion Reactor...
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Lockheed_ ... on_Reactor

Fusion Power is Coming...
https://quillette.com/2022/02/21/fusion ... is-coming/

[henry]

well ....
for 10 years on this site I have been saying that .....
the decarbonisation of heating is far bigger and so more important than the decarbonisation of our cars
(yes I have noticed that ...after 10 years of disagreeing with the above point Andres now agrees it)

for 5 years I have said therefore ....the car and the home are competing for the same decarbonised electricity

I have complained for 20 years eg to our broadcasters that the UK (las per the EU) presents the lie that .....
% decarbonisation of electricity (because presented as % decarbonisation of energy) is the % decarbonisation of all energy

eg recently in formal reply to a House of Lords question the UK government spokesperson falsely stated that ......
43 % is the present UK ('decarbonised') energy percentage
correctly it is 43 % of only the present UK (decarbonised aka renewable) electrical energy

43% (of electrical energy) was the actual value in 2021
importantly this is less than the 2020 actual value - because 2020 was unusually windy

when Joe Public goes to the EV car he is robbing Joe Public's home heat pump

Heat pumps and EVs need not be in major conflict. It is perfectly possible to reduce the size of heat pumps and feed them from the roof most of the year. But we need the will and a plan for society to tackle energy efficiency in houses. It needs government action, but here in the U.K. government finds it easiest to subsidise EVs through the tax system, pretty easy to organise and administer. This won’t work for home insulation etc. where the most important demand lies with people who pay little or no tax.

Not using energy has to be the way to go.

[Big Tea]

Little notice is taken of this (thanks to a poster -JS Squidley on Quora)

https://qr.ae/pv6azf


How many are running world wide? Looks like more product than cars to me

[Andres125sx]

well ....
for 10 years on this site I have been saying that .....
the decarbonisation of heating is far bigger and so more important than the decarbonisation of our cars
(yes I have noticed that ...after 10 years of disagreeing with the above point Andres now agrees it)

for 5 years I have said therefore ....the car and the home are competing for the same decarbonised electricity

I do not now agree with anything Tommy, and don´t get why you´re trying to confront home heating and cars

I only said that home heating demand is being reduced drastically with house isolation subsidizes and more strict laws for new buildings, wich is even better than decarbonizing as lowers energy demands. The cleanest energy is the energy you don´t use. At the same time EVs are increasing electricity demand, so while one sector is increasing electricity demands, the other is decreasing. That´s the reason I don´t understand the reason you´re constantly confronting both as if there was any relationship between them

Maybe you don´t know how efficient is the reduction in energy demands on new buildings so you think that´s not comparable to the increase from EVs, but depending on both rates it might be enough

I can give you some numbers as I´m construction engineer and this is my daily job so I´ll try, hopefully I can explain it well enough in english . Numbers are from memory so excuse me if some is not perfectly accurate, but I can assure the global numbers are this

In Spain (I guess it will be similar anywhere) since 2006-09 (first strict new norm about energy demands and current one, tightened even further) any new house maximum demand of energy is 45kWh/square meter and year. OTOH most houses built before 2000 have an energy demand of around 350 kWh/sqmy, I´ve seen several in excess of 400 (from th 70´s).

In other words, new buildings have reduced energy demands more than 85%, and that´s for standard buildings. PassiveHouse standard (not mandatory, but it´s becoming very popular nowadays) requires a max of 15kWh/sqmy, a third of current standard buildings, so in that case energy demand compared to old buildings is reduced a 95%. Not sure how many years we´ll have to wait until 95% or even 85% of electricity used to feed EVs comes from renewable sources, but I guess most of us will never see it

In other words, the solution adopted 13 years ago to reduce house heating emissions, is much more effective than the solution to reduce emissions from cars (ie EVs). And it will be like that for decades.

That´s for new buildings, with old buildings they´re providing funds to improve the insulation. As a reference, 15-40 years old buildings use 2-3cm of insulation, and older than that used no insulation at all. To reduce energy demands those works improving significantly energy demands are subsidized up to 60-80% of the total cost (80% if including european funds). This means adding 8,10 or even 12cm of extra isolation (current standard) and much better windows, reducing energy demands around a 60%.

Obviously this is only for new buildings and old ones doing the work, so the vast mayority are still demanding huge amounts of energy, and polluting like mad, and will be like that for many more years, but the work was started more than a decade ago and is aiming the correct target, reducing energy demand, even if you constantly point heating as a huge and ignored factor. No, it´s not ignored, far from that

Actually 85-95% reduction on new buildings and 60% reduction on old ones are some big numbers, I´d be surprised if any other sector can get close to this, so you´re probably complaining about the leading sector Tommy

Note that I didn´t mention any energy source, I don´t mind if the remaining demand is covered with electricity, pellets, gas, oil... the source will have some effect reducing emissions, but that´s peanuts compared to reducing energy demands (and emissions) a 60-95%.

If all sectors could get close to this reduction in emissions...

[Edax]

well ....
for 10 years on this site I have been saying that .....
the decarbonisation of heating is far bigger and so more important than the decarbonisation of our cars
(yes I have noticed that ...after 10 years of disagreeing with the above point Andres now agrees it)

for 5 years I have said therefore ....the car and the home are competing for the same decarbonised electricity

<snip>

Note that I didn´t mention any energy source, I don´t mind if the remaining demand is covered with electricity, pellets, gas, oil... the source will have some effect reducing emissions, but that´s peanuts compared to reducing energy demands (and emissions) a 60-95%.

If all sectors could get close to this reduction in emissions...

Interesting numbers. I am not at the 90% yet, but I can attest that the effect is huge.

The thing I don’t understand. Why do the governments have to put up so much effort to promote energy conservation, and meet so much resistance.

For EV’s it it is clear. They are so much more efficient than a petrol car, but technology is new and not yet fully proven and the prices are high. So I understand the hesitation.

But insulating your house is a such no brainer. You have to be a super investor to beat the returns on insulation. Yet I know plenty of people who sink their savings in bitcoins rather than improving their home. And mandatory insulation standards are met with great resistance.

I am pretty much convinced that I cannot stop climate change, but at least I can look after my own wallet.

[Ferry]

Never been there, but assume it is much easier to arrange charging? My 'gut instinct' is most cars would be garaged overnight anyway (Or not?)

I'm from Norway. Been driving BEV for 8 years now. Buying and driving cars has always been expensive here. High taxes on new cars, high taxes on fuel, toll roads, 25% VAT etc. Nearly twice as expensive as in our neighboring country Sweden. That's why it was easy to sell BEVs "cheap" here, by removing tax, vat, toll, free parking and so on.
The ambition is to sell only zero emission vehicles here by 2025. And it's getting close already.
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-market/

You have to be kind of mad or a little bit stubborn to buy anything else than a BEV as a new car here now. Even hybrids are considered aging tech. 1 litre of diesel cost approx. 2,5 Euro now. Gasoline a little bit less. 1 kWh electricity cost about 10 cent. Driving my BEV 10 km cost 0.20 Euro. A diesel would cost 1.25 Euro. 5 times as expensive! And those are conservative numbers. I'm close to 200.000 km electric now. Say 20.000 Euro saved on fuel.

Electricity is everywhere, and the infrastructure is pretty strong. We use electrical heating here, no gas. So the addition of electric cars is only about 5-7% in total. About 80% can charge at home. Apartments with street parking is the most difficult case, but there are more public "slow" chargers coming.

Fuel sales are falling. You see a lot of gas stations installing rapid chargers now. It's a do or die situation. I charge mostly at home. Or I can charge at work, for free even. Rapid charging only for long trips. Maybe twice/month or so.

[Big Tea]

Never been there, but assume it is much easier to arrange charging? My 'gut instinct' is most cars would be garaged overnight anyway (Or not?)

I'm from Norway. Been driving BEV for 8 years now. Buying and driving cars has always been expensive here. High taxes on new cars, high taxes on fuel, toll roads, 25% VAT etc. Nearly twice as expensive as in our neighboring country Sweden. That's why it was easy to sell BEVs "cheap" here, by removing tax, vat, toll, free parking and so on.
The ambition is to sell only zero emission vehicles here by 2025. And it's getting close already.
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-market/

You have to be kind of mad or a little bit stubborn to buy anything else than a BEV as a new car here now. Even hybrids are considered aging tech. 1 litre of diesel cost approx. 2,5 Euro now. Gasoline a little bit less. 1 kWh electricity cost about 10 cent. Driving my BEV 10 km cost 0.20 Euro. A diesel would cost 1.25 Euro. 5 times as expensive! And those are conservative numbers. I'm close to 200.000 km electric now. Say 20.000 Euro saved on fuel.

Electricity is everywhere, and the infrastructure is pretty strong. We use electrical heating here, no gas. So the addition of electric cars is only about 5-7% in total. About 80% can charge at home. Apartments with street parking is the most difficult case, but there are more public "slow" chargers coming.

Fuel sales are falling. You see a lot of gas stations installing rapid chargers now. It's a do or die situation. I charge mostly at home. Or I can charge at work, for free even. Rapid charging only for long trips. Maybe twice/month or so.

Thank you, thats interesting to know. I understand why such a high % now

[gruntguru]

I'm from Norway. Been driving BEV for 8 years now. Buying and driving cars has always been expensive here. High taxes on new cars, high taxes on fuel, toll roads, 25% VAT etc. Nearly twice as expensive as in our neighboring country Sweden. That's why it was easy to sell BEVs "cheap" here, by removing tax, vat, toll, free parking and so on.
The ambition is to sell only zero emission vehicles here by 2025. And it's getting close already.
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-market/

You have to be kind of mad or a little bit stubborn to buy anything else than a BEV as a new car here now. Even hybrids are considered aging tech. 1 litre of diesel cost approx. 2,5 Euro now. Gasoline a little bit less. 1 kWh electricity cost about 10 cent. Driving my BEV 10 km cost 0.20 Euro. A diesel would cost 1.25 Euro. 5 times as expensive! And those are conservative numbers. I'm close to 200.000 km electric now. Say 20.000 Euro saved on fuel.

Electricity is everywhere, and the infrastructure is pretty strong. We use electrical heating here, no gas. So the addition of electric cars is only about 5-7% in total. About 80% can charge at home. Apartments with street parking is the most difficult case, but there are more public "slow" chargers coming.

Fuel sales are falling. You see a lot of gas stations installing rapid chargers now. It's a do or die situation. I charge mostly at home. Or I can charge at work, for free even. Rapid charging only for long trips. Maybe twice/month or so.

This makes sense to me. The cost of car ownership and operation should reflect the real cost to the community and environment. The tricky bit is ensuring the revenue collected is directed appropriately i.e. towards prevention, rectification and compensation.

[MadMax]

I'm from Norway. Been driving BEV for 8 years now. Buying and driving cars has always been expensive here. High taxes on new cars, high taxes on fuel, toll roads, 25% VAT etc. Nearly twice as expensive as in our neighboring country Sweden. That's why it was easy to sell BEVs "cheap" here, by removing tax, vat, toll, free parking and so on.
The ambition is to sell only zero emission vehicles here by 2025. And it's getting close already.
https://elbil.no/english/norwegian-ev-market/

You have to be kind of mad or a little bit stubborn to buy anything else than a BEV as a new car here now. Even hybrids are considered aging tech. 1 litre of diesel cost approx. 2,5 Euro now. Gasoline a little bit less. 1 kWh electricity cost about 10 cent. Driving my BEV 10 km cost 0.20 Euro. A diesel would cost 1.25 Euro. 5 times as expensive! And those are conservative numbers. I'm close to 200.000 km electric now. Say 20.000 Euro saved on fuel.

Electricity is everywhere, and the infrastructure is pretty strong. We use electrical heating here, no gas. So the addition of electric cars is only about 5-7% in total. About 80% can charge at home. Apartments with street parking is the most difficult case, but there are more public "slow" chargers coming.

Fuel sales are falling. You see a lot of gas stations installing rapid chargers now. It's a do or die situation. I charge mostly at home. Or I can charge at work, for free even. Rapid charging only for long trips. Maybe twice/month or so.

This makes sense to me. The cost of car ownership and operation should reflect the real cost to the community and environment. The tricky bit is ensuring the revenue collected is directed appropriately i.e. towards prevention, rectification and compensation.

It's a great example of using directed taxation to change population habits, rather than the usual method of using slightly higher taxes to generate Government revenue behind the disguise of "doing something".