I made a chart to compare 2022 season for Ferrari drivers, with outlook to Q, R good and bad luck, as well as race starts.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/y9hmkw3xu1k3m ... .xlsx?dl=0
I'm open to well argumented changes to certain races (especially regarding poor pit stops for Sainz that were mentioned a lot, but I only noticed 1 important mess in Netherlands), but it won't change some overall conclusions by much. Few comments:
- poor car setup for race was not considered bad luck, but was noted in Race comments
- team strategy faults, engine DNFs, VSC/SC influences as determining factors for the end result were noted as good or bad luck accordingly
- multiple bad or good luck or combined scenarios are all noted accordingly to keep accurate track
- events in 3 Sprint races omitted to not complicate things too much, as they had basically no influence on Race end results
- SAI late stop in FRA was not noted as strategy fault as he was on those mediums for 22 laps before stop - more than any other driver IIRC
- SAI bad luck with anti stall in AUS not counted as connected to later error and DNF as he obviously pushed too hard
- SAI bad start considered primary cause of DNF in Texas, as he wasn't paying attention to Russell in the rear since he was pushing to defend against Hamilton
- LEC not changing tyres in JPN was not noted as strategy fault since it wasn't so clearly a good decision at the time and LEC was defending P2
- LEC bad luck in Q in BRA was not counted in Race bad luck due to start position offset during Sprint race and overall chaotic Q session altogether (although arguably he was in a good position for a good Q lap and very often delivers under pressure)
- no comments on really good or really bad races, as this is too difficult to judge due to opposites in good and bad luck in races
Conclusions:
-
absolutely rotten luck for LEC in races, a total of 17 bad luck moments in 15 races (and was only lucky in Texas race with SC allowing him to close the gap to front), including strings of 4 and 6 and 3 bad races; it's a small miracle that he finished P2 in WDC
-
good luck for SAI in races, 11 beneficial and 6 bad luck race developments and also 2 good developments in Q due to LEC and others' engine penalties (USA omitted as LEC was pushing in Q as well)
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not too different luck in Q, but LEC had 5 bad situations vs 3 for SAI
-
really bad starts for SAI in exactly half of the races (2 are with *) and one single good start in SIN due to starting on drier part of track
-
only 4 races with no clear influence of luck on end results of either, LEC was better in all and SAI crashed out in 2 of them (AUS and JPN)
-
in 3 races where luck only slightly influenced end result
(good for SAI and or bad for LEC), LEC still finished ahead
OVERALL NUMBERS:
FINISHED AHEAD IN QAULY:
LEC 15 - 7 SAI
(15 - 3 on merit)
FINISHED AHEAD IN RACE:
LEC 12 - 9 SAI (
11 -1 on merit, only FRA finish ahead for SAI was on merit, since even with reverse LEC would have hard time being better)
As I said, I hope for good arguments for any changes in any comment or interpretation, though I don't think I will accept any arguments beneficial for LEC as I am likely slightly biased towards him as it is.