2023 car speculation

[Andi76]

Where do people see the car designs heading in the next 4 years? Is Ferrari just going to keep building their bath tub car? Will Mercedes keep building the no pod? Will RB keep doing their ramp?

Despite the variability of design we have seen thus far, I'm not sure I see where the scope is to reinvent? The areas to play with are still quite limited and seem to be dictated by choice of sidepod. I can't see why Ferrari, RB, and Merc don't continue for the next 4 years with the same sidepod shape that they currently have? Anyone agree or disagree?

I think even more teams will "fall" on the Red Bull side of philosophy with some rake and try to rely more on diffuser performance(we saw McLaren doing that just recently with their updates) I think this is the way to go next year. Ferrari also suggested that by developing a floor, more suitable "for some rake", even if i also think Ferrari will keep their bathtubes and small airbox to get the best out of both worlds.
I do not see Mercedes keeping their zeropod design design. Yes, they now have a fast car. But this does not mean that this concept suddenly is as competitive as Red Bulls or Ferraris, because neither Red Bull nor Ferrari really did any big developement for a few races. They are completely focused on their 2023 cars for almost 2 months. So i do not think the pecking order at the moment is representative in any way and we have to get used to that. The teams who have won the title or do not care if the will be P2 or 3 shift stop developement early, while the teams with problems keep developing to get sure they understand their problems and go in the right direction.

[F1Krof]

I'm pretty sure everyone will converge on RBR philosophy (as almost everybody already did).

[BlueCheetah66]

I feel like it is kinda a no brainer to go down that path. The efficiency benefit is the smart way to go given the lack of above body aero

[chrisc90]

Its whether everyone else can come up with the same floor as Red Bull. I think the sidepod concept will be wider done, and we will probably see bigger DRS flaps on the rear wings.

I think the 23 season will vastly depend if peoples floor principle designs will carry over with being slightly higher.

Suspension probably pays a huge part aswell - I imagine that will be a lot harder to try and copy

[FW17]

I think even more teams will "fall" on the Red Bull side of philosophy with some rake and try to rely more on diffuser performance(we saw McLaren doing that just recently with their updates) I think this is the way to go next year. Ferrari also suggested that by developing a floor, more suitable "for some rake", even if i also think Ferrari will keep their bathtubes and small airbox to get the best out of both worlds.
I do not see Mercedes keeping their zeropod design design. Yes, they now have a fast car. But this does not mean that this concept suddenly is as competitive as Red Bulls or Ferraris, because neither Red Bull nor Ferrari really did any big developement for a few races. They are completely focused on their 2023 cars for almost 2 months. So i do not think the pecking order at the moment is representative in any way and we have to get used to that. The teams who have won the title or do not care if the will be P2 or 3 shift stop developement early, while the teams with problems keep developing to get sure they understand their problems and go in the right direction.

hasn't that always been the goal for the last 45 years?

[chrisc90]

Nice little piece here from F1 about the changes (or some of them) to the 2023 cars.

[LM10]

I think even more teams will "fall" on the Red Bull side of philosophy with some rake and try to rely more on diffuser performance(we saw McLaren doing that just recently with their updates) I think this is the way to go next year. Ferrari also suggested that by developing a floor, more suitable "for some rake", even if i also think Ferrari will keep their bathtubes and small airbox to get the best out of both worlds.
I do not see Mercedes keeping their zeropod design design. Yes, they now have a fast car. But this does not mean that this concept suddenly is as competitive as Red Bulls or Ferraris, because neither Red Bull nor Ferrari really did any big developement for a few races. They are completely focused on their 2023 cars for almost 2 months. So i do not think the pecking order at the moment is representative in any way and we have to get used to that. The teams who have won the title or do not care if the will be P2 or 3 shift stop developement early, while the teams with problems keep developing to get sure they understand their problems and go in the right direction.

hasn't that always been the goal for the last 45 years?

It would have not been the goal now in a ground effect era, if the FIA had not brought the TD and next year’s rule changes which paradoxically will benefit diffuser performance oriented concepts like RB’s. But it was for “safety reasons”. As if teams would have not tried to reduce/eliminate porpoising anyway because it does not only put stress on the driver, but also on material.

[Henk_v]

I've not been too much into the technical side of F1 during former rule changes.

Is there any historical precedent as to what to expect?

I could imagine the first year is toe-dipping into the regs. Might we expect the more sneaky / disruptive innovations next year? Or are we historically in for a year of consolidation?

I follow some other high tech sports and there it is customary that whenever a team has a substantial lead by deviating from the beaten path, they will opt to consolidate their lead by returning closer to the competition, accepting large reductions of their absolute lead for fearing that the pack will find gains they are unable to follow from their exposed position. They'll often prefer a smaller lead, confident hey can perpetuate it by finding gains in the same pace as the pack over a large lead with the risk of having to do all the innovation themselves while the pack will have something to copy.

Might we see this effect too in '23?

[skoop]

I've not meen too much into the technical side of F1 during former rule changes.

Is there any historical precedent as to what to expect?

I could imagine the first year is toe-dipping into the regs. Might we expect the more sneaky / disruptive innovations next year? Or are we historically in for a year of consolidation?

I follow some other high rech sports and there it is customary that whenever a team has a substantial lead by deviating from the beaten path, they will opt to consolidate their lead by returning closer to the competition, accepting large reductions of their absolute lead for fearing that the pack will find gains they are unable to follow from their exposed position. They'll often prefer a smaller lead, confident hey can perpetuate it by finding gains in the same pace as the pack over a large lead with the risk of having to do all the innovation themselves while the pack will have something to copy.

Might we see this effect too in '23?

This is pure speculation from my side, but I can imagine that some of the midfield teams will adopt their philosophy according to Red Bull and Ferrari. In this interview [https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... 3-konzept/] Adrian Newey talks a bit about that topic.

[marcel171281]

I've not meen too much into the technical side of F1 during former rule changes.

Is there any historical precedent as to what to expect?

I could imagine the first year is toe-dipping into the regs. Might we expect the more sneaky / disruptive innovations next year? Or are we historically in for a year of consolidation?

I follow some other high rech sports and there it is customary that whenever a team has a substantial lead by deviating from the beaten path, they will opt to consolidate their lead by returning closer to the competition, accepting large reductions of their absolute lead for fearing that the pack will find gains they are unable to follow from their exposed position. They'll often prefer a smaller lead, confident hey can perpetuate it by finding gains in the same pace as the pack over a large lead with the risk of having to do all the innovation themselves while the pack will have something to copy.

Might we see this effect too in '23?

What I do expect in F1 for next year is a lot of teams carrying over their 2022 chassis (designs) for cost reduction. Some teams will no doubt have postponed updates for those chassis' towards the end of 2022, to keep them secret for 2023. Especially RB, who only did circuit specific updates after the summer break, will have deemed the lead big enough to postpone as much to 2023 a possible, not to give the opposition a glance at what is coming. Same for Ferrari, they knew after the summer they would and up 2nd anyway, so why make the opposition any wiser without championship gains for themselfs.

So the answer is yes, but it has already started with some teams last year. With stable rules and costcaps, I very much think the car designs will gradually evolve in time, without the big steps in between the seasons as we were used to. No complete new cars at every new season, but many, many carry overs.

[FDD]

Some info/prediction/speculation on FERRARI 675

https://www.formu1a.uno/ferrari-675-sig ... odynamics/

[ing.]

Some info/prediction/speculation on FERRARI 675

https://www.formu1a.uno/ferrari-675-sig ... odynamics/

I would expect Ferrari to maybe keep the high sides of their bathtub but remove the kick-up at the rear of the side pods (ahead of the rear upper wishbone) and bring the upper surface of the side pods down close to the floor, similar to what Alpine have.

The kick-up was likely used to reduce lift on the upper surface of the side pods, but probably this reduced overall efficiency compared to RB’s concept of energizing the flow above the diffuser.

[FW17]

Some info/prediction/speculation on FERRARI 675

https://www.formu1a.uno/ferrari-675-sig ... odynamics/

I would expect Ferrari to maybe keep the high sides of their bathtub but remove the kick-up at the rear of the side pods (ahead of the rear upper wishbone) and bring the upper surface of the side pods down close to the floor, similar to what Alpine have.

The kick-up was likely used to reduce lift on the upper surface of the side pods, but probably this reduced overall efficiency compared to RB’s concept of energizing the flow above the diffuser.

So a bit like the Alpine

[chrisc90]

https://racingnews365.com/mercedes-coul ... -f1-driver

interesting article with the floor flexibility.

Looks like they will be looking to stop teams from flexing the floors down at the rear to get a better seal against the track.

[Vanja #66]

This change was well known since July I think. Teams most in trouble are RB and Ferrari as they exttacted the most from their floors this season. Mercedes can only benefit from this change, as they complained all year on bouncing and flexing floors... When something you struggled to master is restricted, you can only benefit, not get hurt