2023 pecking order predictions

[haza]

Bit soon but hey ho ….

First half of the season

1:Redbull
2:Mercedes
3:Ferrari
4:McLaren
5:Aston Martin
6:Alpine
7:Sauber
8:Haas
9:Williams
10:Alpha Tauri

Second half

1:Mercedes
2:Redbull
3:Ferrari
4:McLaren
5:Alpine
6:Aston Martin
7:Haas
8:Williams
9:Sauber
10:Alpha tauri

[NAPI10]

My prediction is -
1:Mercedes
2:Redbull
3:Ferrari
4:Aston Martin
5:Alpine
6:McLaren
7:Sauber
8:Haas
9:Williams
10:Alpha Tauri

[chrisc90]

1:Redbull
2:Ferrari
3:Mercedes
4:McLaren
5:Alpine
6:Aston Martin
7:Sauber
8:Alpha Tauri
9:Haas
10:Williams


I think it will be close between Merc and Ferrari though. I think Red Bull will still have a good amount of pace in the car come race day. 3-4tenths up.

[haza]

I think redbull will have the edge in the first half of the season but I expect Mercedes to surpass them in the latter races i don’t think red bulls wind tunnel penalty will affect them too much if at all. Ferrari is a big question mark they will most likely bring a contending car like this year but they need consistent performances that’s why I have them 3rd.

[chrisc90]

I think redbull will have the edge in the first half of the season but I expect Mercedes to surpass them in the latter races i don’t think red bulls wind tunnel penalty will affect them too much if at all. Ferrari is a big question mark they will most likely bring a contending car like this year but they need consistent performances that’s why I have them 3rd.

Its Mercedes season to bring the development through the season.

They have a big gap to close at present.

[haza]

I think redbull will have the edge in the first half of the season but I expect Mercedes to surpass them in the latter races i don’t think red bulls wind tunnel penalty will affect them too much if at all. Ferrari is a big question mark they will most likely bring a contending car like this year but they need consistent performances that’s why I have them 3rd.

Its Mercedes season to bring the development through the season.

They have a big gap to close at present.

They do yes but they will benefit from additional wind tunnel time the merc will probably be the most visually different car i don’t see the no side pod concept staying

[AR3-GP]

I think redbull will have the edge in the first half of the season but I expect Mercedes to surpass them in the latter races i don’t think red bulls wind tunnel penalty will affect them too much if at all. Ferrari is a big question mark they will most likely bring a contending car like this year but they need consistent performances that’s why I have them 3rd.

I can understand the worry with Ferrari. I feel the Ferrari will be very fast again but the problem is the pitwall. The second that Mercedes is anywhere near Ferrari, Ferrari's pitwall will hand everything to Mercedes.

[caddy]

I think redbull will have the edge in the first half of the season but I expect Mercedes to surpass them in the latter races i don’t think red bulls wind tunnel penalty will affect them too much if at all. Ferrari is a big question mark they will most likely bring a contending car like this year but they need consistent performances that’s why I have them 3rd.

Its Mercedes season to bring the development through the season.

They have a big gap to close at present.

They do yes but they will benefit from additional wind tunnel time the merc will probably be the most visually different car i don’t see the no side pod concept staying

Compared to redbull, Mercedes has a few extra hours of actual wind tunnel time, which isn't very significant. I posted some details in Mercedes team thread.

It's not the wind tunnel time that would count, but the ideas they have that can help bridge the gap. Mercedes started and ended the year with same performance deficit to Redbull (quali and race) despite all the upgrades through the year and specifically late season that they claim to have transformed the car while Redbull didn't bring any upgrades in the last few months. Redbull are also masters of in season development. So overhauling them next season would be a monumental ask. More so with Mercedes trying to change their fundamentals of car that gave so much of headache, while Redbull would be evolving a proven winner in the first year of a brand new set of regulations.

Ferrari stopped development of the current car after Summer break and the rumour suggest the new car, code named 675, is far better than F1-75. It's not unusual for Ferrari to come out with a leading car after winter break. I wouldn't be surprised to see them being ahead of the pack once again, but with the usual question mark over in season development.

Aston Martin made the biggest progress through the year. Starting with 2.2 second deficit and ending with 1.1 second deficit over one lap. With Dan Fallows leading the new car development and with Alonso factor, they might be the ones that would lead the midfield.

[Spoutnik]

Unroll

[haza]

I’m hopeful McLaren can make a step forward next year but realistically I don’t see them being competitive of any sort till 2024 at least, on a separate note we get the sauber name back next year

[McL-H]

1. Red Bull
2. Mercedes
3. Ferrari
4. Aston Martin
5. Alpine
6. McLaren
7. Williams
8. AlphaTauri
9. Williams
10. Sauber

[selvam_e2002]

Redbull till 2026 will win the WCC and WDC.

[the EDGE]

Red bull
Mercedes
Ferrari
McLaren
Aston Martin
Alpine
Haas
Alfa Romeo
Alpha Tauri
Williams

[Big Tea]

Until Merc show us what they have we cannot even make a good guess.
Being sensible, it is very likely to be RBR Merc Ferrari on some order then the choice of usual suspects.

RBR have had the outstanding car for the last while, so it will either be more of the same, or they will have hit the development limit and are just making small steps, or starting with a new concept again, which could be better or worse. We will find out.

Same with Merc, they may scrap the idea and come with a clone, which will probably be a good starter, but take more to develop or decide they have found the missing second and bring the car that should have started this year.

Ferrari are Ferrari. They will be there, but then what happens?

To me the interest will be between Mclaren Alpine and AM, with a possible outsider such as AT, Alfa, Haas or even Williams getting in amongst them.

[Stu]

Until Merc show us what they have we cannot even make a good guess.
Being sensible, it is very likely to be RBR Merc Ferrari on some order then the choice of usual suspects.

RBR have had the outstanding car for the last while, so it will either be more of the same, or they will have hit the development limit and are just making small steps, or starting with a new concept again, which could be better or worse. We will find out.

Same with Merc, they may scrap the idea and come with a clone, which will probably be a good starter, but take more to develop or decide they have found the missing second and bring the car that should have started this year.

Ferrari are Ferrari. They will be there, but then what happens?

To me the interest will be between Mclaren Alpine and AM, with a possible outsider such as AT, Alfa, Haas or even Williams getting in amongst them.

Totally agree with you, with tyres now staying the same for next year we will finally get to know how deeply AMG understand the shortcomings of the W13.
RedBull have been very subtle with upgrades, but really seem to understand the regs (and what is required to make them work cohesively across a wide range of tracks).
Ferrari need to get to grips with tyre management & race strategy as there seems to little wrong fundamentally with the car!

I’d be really surprised if any other team gets into the top three (and these three really could finish in any order).

The remaining teams? As you say, it will be really interesting to see how they all shake out over a season, there will likely be be very little between hero and zero, particularly so as the weakest drivers have now gone.