Mercedes W14 Speculation Thread

[Henri]

Scrabs thinks the new sidepods look lile this

Realistically a mix of the two would just be the Williams sidepods from the start of the year

The Williams sidepods looked very elegant hope they copy them

[ScrewCaptain27]

I have a feeling it may be a joke like the Alpine with no sidepods last year, but it’s technically plausible, it would just be a big flap mounted over the W13 sidepods. Not sure if it would be legal or how well it would work though (and I have the feeling it wouldn’t).

[carisi2k]

As far as I've read reports (which are probably biassed if teams are against the reg change), the venom is in the higher venturi throat. This is right where all the gearbox and suspension bits are. Lower airspeed in the throat means they can have even more agressive diffuser expansion after it. Some floors / diffusers already had indentations to allow for whishbone travel or drive axles. Raising the throat seems to have some large implications for at least some teams. But maybe they just exaggerated.

Mercedes have so much to re do for the W14.

The rear suspension and probably the front suspension although they may leave that for 24. They have the new floor which won't be allowed to flex like there 22 floor did. They have to figure out how to get the small pod / mid wing or maybe a top fairing to flow the air in the right spots and reduce drag and aero seal the floor at the edges.

The rear wing might also need extra work for them as they used more overbody aero last year to offset the issue they were having with the underbody aero.

The new floor rules should not require huge re-workings for the teams that got it right in 22 but will require a lot of expenditure for teams who pushed the boundaries in the wrong direction.

[De Jokke]

Has merc shot themselves in the foot by not going the ferrari way with the engine?
Both teams knew pretty soon that it wasn't going to be their year. Ferrari pushed its engine but has now 30hp extra coming for 23, while merc had a solid engine in terms of reliability in 2022, but I'm afraid nothing big is coming for 23...
Your thoughts?

[saviour stivala]

''Those 30hp extra coming for 23''. Those 'extra' 30hp were there in 22, they just could not be released without the risk of the engine going bang. That was the situation max possible power output wise the engines started the 22 season with.

[SuperCNJ]

Has merc shot themselves in the foot by not going the ferrari way with the engine?
Both teams knew pretty soon that it wasn't going to be their year. Ferrari pushed its engine but has now 30hp extra coming for 23, while merc had a solid engine in terms of reliability in 2022, but I'm afraid nothing big is coming for 23...
Your thoughts?

I don't think anyone outside Brackley/Brixworth really knows that for sure. If we look at it objectively, now that we've been through a year of the new regs, Merc has had enough time to figure out where their deficit to the competition lies and what they need to get back to the front. Their performance target won't be to be to be on par with the 2022 RB and Ferrari, it would be 2022+X% as everyone will have improved by next year.

If they felt that the performance from their current concepts, be that the aero, suspension or PU is not capable of delivering the performance target they need, I'm sure they would have changed it by now.

I don't think Ferrari intended to blow up their engine by running it at max power in order to be able to develop the PU for 2023, there's too much reputational damage from having an engine blow up imo.

There was also talk about Merc not extracting as much power from their PU as RB and Ferrari in 2022 to establish a reliability baseline so there could be more to come even from the existing 2022 PU, let alone the improved one in 2023.

[Vaexa]

Has merc shot themselves in the foot by not going the ferrari way with the engine?
Both teams knew pretty soon that it wasn't going to be their year. Ferrari pushed its engine but has now 30hp extra coming for 23, while merc had a solid engine in terms of reliability in 2022, but I'm afraid nothing big is coming for 23...
Your thoughts?

...
If they felt that the performance from their current concepts, be that the aero, suspension or PU is not capable of delivering the performance target they need, I'm sure they would have changed it by now.
...

Mercedes have been outspoken about the time and labour that went into understanding their issues (and wind tunnel time, too), and how hard the budget cap makes it to fundamentally change their car during the season. Even once they purported to finally understand their issues, they were limited in their ability to tackle them in-season. They'd probably have brought a B-spec by the summer break if this was 2019, but it isn't.

That's not to mention PU updates are ostensibly allowed only for reliability and have to go through a lengthy process that includes, as I understand it, any proposed changes being disclosed to the other manufacturers. Ferrari have alluded to a limit on reliability updates as well, but nothing very concrete there.

Renault were very transparent about building a fast but fragile engine for 2022 and fixing the reliability issues later because they're allowed to do that. Doesn't matter if the Mercedes is reliable if the other manufacturers are allowed to make theirs reliable too.

Addendum: Mercedes did in fact submit reliability updates for their power unit, with (if memory serves) PU3 including a reinforced crank case.

[jordanb]

Has merc shot themselves in the foot by not going the ferrari way with the engine?
Both teams knew pretty soon that it wasn't going to be their year. Ferrari pushed its engine but has now 30hp extra coming for 23, while merc had a solid engine in terms of reliability in 2022, but I'm afraid nothing big is coming for 23...
Your thoughts?

...
If they felt that the performance from their current concepts, be that the aero, suspension or PU is not capable of delivering the performance target they need, I'm sure they would have changed it by now.
...

Mercedes have been outspoken about the time and labour that went into understanding their issues (and wind tunnel time, too), and how hard the budget cap makes it to fundamentally change their car during the season. Even once they purported to finally understand their issues, they were limited in their ability to tackle them in-season. They'd probably have brought a B-spec by the summer break if this was 2019, but it isn't.

That's not to mention PU updates are ostensibly allowed only for reliability and have to go through a lengthy process that includes, as I understand it, any proposed changes being disclosed to the other manufacturers. Ferrari have alluded to a limit on reliability updates as well, but nothing very concrete there.

Renault were very transparent about building a fast but fragile engine for 2022 and fixing the reliability issues later because they're allowed to do that. Doesn't matter if the Mercedes is reliable if the other manufacturers are allowed to make theirs reliable too.

Addendum: Mercedes did in fact submit reliability updates for their power unit, with (if memory serves) PU3 including a reinforced crank case.

The reliability updates can unlock power that's inherently there in the PU which is being held back due to unreliability, like in case of Ferrari. I don't recall Mercedes stating anything similar this year. They even brought updates to PU with revised software maps to run the PU a little harder in US as part of the overall car upgrade as their reliability was good to do so. In some races they have run a little lower on fuel and had to back off at the end of races. I wonder if there is more left in that PU to extract via reliability upgrades without hurting fuel economy and fuel consumption is something a manufacturer cannot solve without combustion redesign, which doesn't qualify as reliability upgrade.

[Cs98]

Has merc shot themselves in the foot by not going the ferrari way with the engine?
Both teams knew pretty soon that it wasn't going to be their year. Ferrari pushed its engine but has now 30hp extra coming for 23, while merc had a solid engine in terms of reliability in 2022, but I'm afraid nothing big is coming for 23...
Your thoughts?

I don't see that happening. Ferrari might return to their "peak power" in 2022 (sort of like Spain, Miami, Baku time), which was more than what they were running at the end, but not 30HP more. 30HP is several years of real engine development. Next year is supposed to be a reliability fix, not a performance upgrade. If their engine becomes more powerful than it ever was in 2022 it's obviously a performance upgrade.

Merc should only be at a slight disadvantage in terms of engine power. Which is still significant because they've obviously enjoyed the most or joint most powerful engine for 7 out of their 8 championships.

[Cs98]

Renault were very transparent about building a fast but fragile engine for 2022 and fixing the reliability issues later because they're allowed to do that. Doesn't matter if the Mercedes is reliable if the other manufacturers are allowed to make theirs reliable too.

Addendum: Mercedes did in fact submit reliability updates for their power unit, with (if memory serves) PU3 including a reinforced crank case.

Of course it matters. This period from 2022-2025 is only 4 years. If your engine is bad for the first year that's 1 in 4 gone (unfortunately Merc screwed up the car so they couldn't take advantage of their reliability). And I think it's underestimating the challenge to suggest an engine manufacturer can solve all their reliability issues in one season and then unleash the full potential of the engine for the remaining 3 years. I expect Renault and Ferrari to still have the worst reliability next season.

[jordanb]

And I think it's underestimating the challenge to suggest an engine manufacturer can solve all their reliability issues in one season and then unleash the full potential of the engine for the remaining 3 years. I expect Renault and Ferrari to still have the worst reliability next season.

It is infact easier to fix all the reliability issues in a year, provided a manufacturer understands all the issues that are bogging the engine down. Unlike in the past years, the manufacturer need not have to focus on finding performance while working on reliability fixes and the overall design remains constant. There is very little chance of inducing new problem with reliability fixes when the focus is just solving the existing problem.

[AR3-GP]

And I think it's underestimating the challenge to suggest an engine manufacturer can solve all their reliability issues in one season and then unleash the full potential of the engine for the remaining 3 years. I expect Renault and Ferrari to still have the worst reliability next season.

It is infact easier to fix all the reliability issues in a year, provided a manufacturer understands all the issues that are bogging the engine down. Unlike in the past years, the manufacturer need not have to focus on finding performance while working on reliability fixes and the overall design remains constant. There is very little chance of inducing new problem with reliability fixes when the focus is just solving the existing problem.

Who says they aren't trying to find performance?

this is F1 we are talking about.

[jordanb]

And I think it's underestimating the challenge to suggest an engine manufacturer can solve all their reliability issues in one season and then unleash the full potential of the engine for the remaining 3 years. I expect Renault and Ferrari to still have the worst reliability next season.

It is infact easier to fix all the reliability issues in a year, provided a manufacturer understands all the issues that are bogging the engine down. Unlike in the past years, the manufacturer need not have to focus on finding performance while working on reliability fixes and the overall design remains constant. There is very little chance of inducing new problem with reliability fixes when the focus is just solving the existing problem.

Who says they aren't trying to find performance?

this is F1 we are talking about.

It's the same F1 where competitors are trying to hold back others from finding gains. These reliability upgrades go through validation process with competitors before getting approved. If a reliability upgrade helps unlock performance, that's the whole purpose of enhancing reliability. So fair enough. But if someone tries to push a performance upgrade under the guise of reliability, that's a deviation from their frozen design, do you think competitors let that happen?

[saviour stivala]

If no performance potential over and above what the engine as validated at start of 22 season was there, no amount of reliability fixings will add any additional performance because there will be nothing to unlock except that of finishing races.

[georgekyr]

There was lots of talk last year that the combination of Petronas fuel technology and Merc engine was not optimal in the switch to E10 fuel. Also there was lots of speculation for example that Shell got it right with their fuel flowing into the Ferrari engine.
Article 16 and in detail 16.3 (fuel properties) gives a degree of freedom on the type of fuel to be used. Maybe some more performance can be extracted from that path as well. Mercedes also has the benefit of data from all the teams that used their engines using different fuel suppliers and consequently fuels as at a degree.
Also, it was the first year with the new engines. Aston Martin, Williams and Ricciardo were the only ones not getting a penalty for using more power unit components than allowed. Of course there can be benefits in getting penalties and changing components, Merc did it in 2021, we all remember the Brazil engine. It's all in the game.
If I am not mistaken the engine cost cap is again annual and Merc getting the reliability upgrade just in time last year means that the cost for that was budgeted in last season's budget. Maybe they will have some more headroom for reliability upgrades this year leading to performance gains.