2023 pecking order predictions

[AR3-GP]

Maybe someone here can help me understand why since the new regs require a rear lift the Merc supposedly is advantaged when Merc have said repeatedly they need their car planted on the ground to get the most out of their concept. Why is Merc the most advantaged when RB in fact runs a high static height already? All cars are basically on the ground in the corners.

Honest question.

To avoid porpoising, Mercedes has to run higher. While the best performance of their car is running lower, but then it starts it's disco at that state. So by having forced these regulations, other teams also now have raised floor edges and diffuser opening now, by which they lose downforce and potentially go on par with Mercedes, who anyway have to raise to keep sanity of the car and drivers.

But Spa.

[AR3-GP]

Maybe someone here can help me understand why since the new regs require a rear lift the Merc supposedly is advantaged when Merc have said repeatedly they need their car planted on the ground to get the most out of their concept. Why is Merc the most advantaged when RB in fact runs a high static height already? All cars are basically on the ground in the corners.

Honest question.

During the season this a bigger issue to overcome but they seemed to have gotten car under control by the end of the year. So those learnings were fed into the new car design. It all comes down to what the find in the wind tunnel.

I think a bit deceptive.

They were nowhere in Japan. Brail and Mexico outliers. Slow and bouncing in Abu Dhabi according to Lewis. Abu Dhabi is smooth as butter. Merc was flattered by the selection of tracks towards the end of the season.

[Airshifter]

Maybe someone here can help me understand why since the new regs require a rear lift the Merc supposedly is advantaged when Merc have said repeatedly they need their car planted on the ground to get the most out of their concept. Why is Merc the most advantaged when RB in fact runs a high static height already? All cars are basically on the ground in the corners.

Honest question.

TBH, I think anyone stating it will help Merc the most is at best guessing. Unless we assume Merc knows full well what their problems were and how to fix it, we can't know that the car will come alive with the new reg. Since they got it wrong from the start, for all we know teams such as RB and Ferrari who had it closer to right from the start might adapt better and gain even more advantage with the car raised up.

It's the Merc hopeful pinning a thought on Merc getting an advantage through the regs. It was probably pushed (and well acted at times!) by Merc in hopes of changing things during the season under the guise of driver safety, but in the end all it will probably do is create more work for everyone and most likely slow the cars a little bit.

[AR3-GP]

Maybe someone here can help me understand why since the new regs require a rear lift the Merc supposedly is advantaged when Merc have said repeatedly they need their car planted on the ground to get the most out of their concept. Why is Merc the most advantaged when RB in fact runs a high static height already? All cars are basically on the ground in the corners.

Honest question.

TBH, I think anyone stating it will help Merc the most is at best guessing.

I'm not too sure. When Mercedes pushes for a regulation change, it's because they believe it will benefit them.

Currently, I can't actually see how, but the cynic reminds me that if they wanted it, then they knew it would help them.

[mendis]

Maybe someone here can help me understand why since the new regs require a rear lift the Merc supposedly is advantaged when Merc have said repeatedly they need their car planted on the ground to get the most out of their concept. Why is Merc the most advantaged when RB in fact runs a high static height already? All cars are basically on the ground in the corners.

Honest question.

TBH, I think anyone stating it will help Merc the most is at best guessing.

I'm not too sure. When Mercedes pushes for a regulation change, it's because they believe it will benefit them.

Currently, I can't actually see how, but the cynic reminds me that if they wanted it, then they knew it would help them.

At the time when they were pushing for the regulation change, they were throwing every possible fancy word out of the aerodynamic book as a solution to stop porpoising, including great deal of acting from their drivers, I doubt if they knew what their problem was and how to fix it. They pushed for a change where the competitors lose ground, which would bring them closer to Mercedes. I am not sure if they pushed a change that would benefit them per se as I doubt at that stage they themselves knew where the problem was. They just wanted to slow down RB and Ferrari. So RB and Ferrari losing performance would help Mercedes! The other thing is, we don't know to what extent the 2023 changes would have hurt Mercedes, which is another thing to see in Bahrain.

[diffuser]

Maybe someone here can help me understand why since the new regs require a rear lift the Merc supposedly is advantaged when Merc have said repeatedly they need their car planted on the ground to get the most out of their concept. Why is Merc the most advantaged when RB in fact runs a high static height already? All cars are basically on the ground in the corners.

Honest question.

During the season this a bigger issue to overcome but they seemed to have gotten car under control by the end of the year. So those learnings were fed into the new car design. It all comes down to what the find in the wind tunnel.

I think a bit deceptive.

They were nowhere in Japan. Brail and Mexico outliers. Slow and bouncing in Abu Dhabi according to Lewis. Abu Dhabi is smooth as butter. Merc was flattered by the selection of tracks towards the end of the season.

My point was that they seemed to have figured out their problem. They corrected as much as they could within the constraints of the 2022 car design and cost limitations. You take that car, completely redesign it with new regs in mind, add 3 - 5 months of wind tunnel time and who knows where they'll be? Obviously RBR have an odds edge but Merc have it in them to win in 2023.

That all I am saying.

[Venturiation]

I don’t see Mercedes getting out of 3rd place if they don’t get even beaten by aston martin or alpine

Redbull will dominate and Ferrari may catch up in the 2nd half of the season

[diffuser]

I don’t see Mercedes getting out of 3rd place if they don’t get even beaten by aston martin or alpine

Redbull will dominate and Ferrari may catch up in the 2nd half of the season

Everyone's entitled to their opinion and it's in the relm of possibilities but I don't think Likely. The gap between Ferrari and Merc, points wise, was paper thin for 2nd and 3ird. Merc had tripple the Alpine's points, that's a long way down. On the timing sheet and in Quali it was only about 3 tenth on average from the best of the reset to Merc. In race trim, the merc was alot kinder to it tires and absolutley smoked the best of the rest. At the right tracks, it was able to over take Ferrari and every so often RBR. That ability to stay on the faster tire for several laps longer will be hard to over come for the Best of the rest teams.

[Venturiation]

I don’t see Mercedes getting out of 3rd place if they don’t get even beaten by aston martin or alpine

Redbull will dominate and Ferrari may catch up in the 2nd half of the season

Everyone's entitled to their opinion and it's in the relm of possibilities but I don't think Likely. The gap between Ferrari and Merc, points wise, was paper thin for 2nd and 3ird. Merc had tripple the Alpine's points, that's a long way down. On the timing sheet and in Quali it was only about 3 tenth on average from the best of the reset to Merc. In race trim, the merc was alot kinder to it tires and absolutley smoked the best of the rest. At the right tracks, it was able to over take Ferrari and every so often RBR. That ability to stay on the faster tire for several laps longer will be hard to over come for the Best of the rest teams.

Ferrari had alot of DNF while Mercedes almost none
And the gap was still big while Ferrari and Redbull stopped developing at the half of the season and RB using old heavier parts
Ferrari also tuned down the engine alot

[diffuser]

I don’t see Mercedes getting out of 3rd place if they don’t get even beaten by aston martin or alpine

Redbull will dominate and Ferrari may catch up in the 2nd half of the season

Everyone's entitled to their opinion and it's in the relm of possibilities but I don't think Likely. The gap between Ferrari and Merc, points wise, was paper thin for 2nd and 3ird. Merc had tripple the Alpine's points, that's a long way down. On the timing sheet and in Quali it was only about 3 tenth on average from the best of the reset to Merc. In race trim, the merc was alot kinder to it tires and absolutely smoked the best of the rest. At the right tracks, it was able to over take Ferrari and every so often RBR. That ability to stay on the faster tire for several laps longer will be hard to over come for the Best of the rest teams.

Ferrari had alot of DNF while Mercedes almost none
And the gap was still big while Ferrari and Redbull stopped developing at the half of the season and RB using old heavier parts
Ferrari also tuned down the engine alot

Those are all reasons why Ferrari should be faster than RBR. Ferrari stopped producing new parts really early, I'm sure they started work on the 2023 car early. Ferrari must have found that they didn't have the budget to make the changes they needed to get faster. Whether they spent the money earlier and was wasted or discovered that the changes they had to make were too expensive for the remaining budget they had, I don't know. RBR on the other hand went average late, not late late, on ending 2022 development. Finishing first gives them the least amount of wind tunnel time plus they have the penalty to boot.


There is still another month before the first race comes around (March 5th). Added that to the already 5 month since the summer break, for most teams the parts that get produced after the summer break came out of development prior to the break.

Ferrari

[Venturiation]

It can be Ferrari very close to Redbull, but the wind tunnel times won’t affect Redbull at all I guarantee you that
And the Redbull concept can be developed more unlike Ferrari that is at the limit

For Mercedes they are too far behind, they need to throw 2023 and concentrate on 2024 to comeback
They already lost 1 year of development with the W13

[f1jcw]

sorry, I take anything you say about Mercedes and wind tunnel usage hard to take when you come out with gems like the following

And the Redbull concept can be developed more unlike Ferrari that is at the limit

What even gives you this type of thought?

[Venturiation]

I see all teams converging into Redbull concept
And in history the team that that wins the 1 year of new regulations will dominate that era

Ferrari was copied only by haas because they work in the same building so it’s cheaper and haas only thinks about cost saving

Mercedes is stuck with their concept because they built it with an engine shape that is now frozen

Even Williams and Mclaren all abandoned the slim sidepods design and switched to Redbull concept and they are doing much better
Mercedes engine is now the weakest and the fuel is messed up I don’t see what they can do to fix that until 2026
But they have the best drivers

[Big Tea]

Merc made a real Horlix of last years car, so if they believed it was not the best option surely they would have cut their losses and dumped it in favour of a new start.
Does the fact that they say they are not doing this not indicate they believe they are on the right track? ( they may well be wrong though )
They knew that there was no point developing some areas of the car while the bouncing problem limited then, so I believe they did much to improve the design but din not think it worth spending (from the limit) to actually implement these improvements, but I expect them to be incorporated in the 'new' car.

Just a guess of course, we will not know until race one, but they have won almost 50% of the years they have (re) entered, so they would seem likely to know what they are doing.

From a development point of view, it would probably be better for them if they did not win the title again in 23, because they seem to have become 'fat and lazy' in their position and taking the easy route and bland strategy. Another year of toe to toe fighting may shake them up a little and would defiantly benefit Russell and keep him out of the rut of thinking he can show up and win. Hamilton may need a reminder that it is not on a plate for him too

[Vanja #66]

TBH, I think anyone stating it will help Merc the most is at best guessing. Unless we assume Merc knows full well what their problems were and how to fix it, we can't know that the car will come alive with the new reg. Since they got it wrong from the start, for all we know teams such as RB and Ferrari who had it closer to right from the start might adapt better and gain even more advantage with the car raised up.

It's the Merc hopeful pinning a thought on Merc getting an advantage through the regs. It was probably pushed (and well acted at times!) by Merc in hopes of changing things during the season under the guise of driver safety, but in the end all it will probably do is create more work for everyone and most likely slow the cars a little bit.

Merc benefiting from floor and bouncing rule changes is all based on facts. Timeline of their problems was:

1) cars was designed for aero and suspension to run as low as possible at all times to extract maximum downforce possible (importance of suspension design is often since it can't improve performance much, but slightly wrong design can wreck the car)

2) bouncing wasnt expected and to reduce it quickly the car was raised - compromising suspension movement, dynamics, tyre management, etc

3) barca floor upgrade significantly reduced floor downforce to reduce bouncing sensitivity and this hurt Merc performance through most of the season

4) zeropods left a lot of floor exposed and uncontrolable floor movement still affected performance and generated bouncing, so the car was mostly running outside of optimal ride height

5) due to lower air density in Mexico and slighlty lower in Brazil, car was able to run lower and this brought it back to life mechanically - but was brought back to reality in AD

2023 floor changes reduce maximum theoretical floor downforce and also leave less theoretical potential for bouncing - ar the cost of floor performance. Since RB and Ferrari mastered floor design, its clear they will lose the most. Contrary, Merc had to sacrifice floor downforce even with Barca floor, so they will likely not lose floor performance at all, and - bouncing on its own is less likely to happen and/or cause major problems. In fact, their zeropod concept will also benefit since reduced floor performance also means less load on overexposed floor surface, making it less prone to uncontrollable movement - along with overall stiffer floor requirements.

Having potential to extract floor downforce without bouncing, Ferrari and RB were able to exploit flexible floor edges for mechanical sealing and extra floor performance. This was actually a problem for Merc, so stiffer floor is also working in their favour twofold.

Literally every change is working in their favour and hurts RB and Ferrari, so its absolutely no surprise both drivers and Toto were campainging for "safety" changes from Bahrain Q...