2023 pecking order predictions

[FW17]

Mercedes doing 4 days of tyre testing of the 2023 tyres in February seems a bit unfair to the competition.

[chrisc90]

Mercedes doing 4 days of tyre testing of the 2023 tyres in February seems a bit unfair to the competition.

They won’t be able to test any new.

But does seem unfair - unless merc haven’t tested tyres when others did earlier on

[CMSMJ1]

As this is not solely about RB and Merc - I'll ask one of you passionate bunch!

Do you see any "great leap" from any of the midfield - or do we have a feeling that there is just not enough scope in the regs to allow for such a leap?

Is there a .5s gain hiding in plan sight? Is the aim of this game only to be corralling your .05s gains and making sure they can all be harnessed at the same time on most tracks?

Do these regs allow even a scintilla of hope for a midfield team to get anywhere close to the sharp end under "normal conditions?"

If there was a team to find and make that leap - which one?

For me - I can't see it as the opportunity to make laptime in different ways seems to be stymied here. It is aero efficiency (as it was for a long time) only - and so you make the numbers and build the car that can hit them.
If there was a team that can find anything other than the usual - I would want to say Alpine as they have form for doing it differently and sometimes well.

[Mr5in1]

As this is not solely about RB and Merc - I'll ask one of you passionate bunch!

Do you see any "great leap" from any of the midfield - or do we have a feeling that there is just not enough scope in the regs to allow for such a leap?

Is there a .5s gain hiding in plan sight? Is the aim of this game only to be corralling your .05s gains and making sure they can all be harnessed at the same time on most tracks?

Do these regs allow even a scintilla of hope for a midfield team to get anywhere close to the sharp end under "normal conditions?"

If there was a team to find and make that leap - which one?

For me - I can't see it as the opportunity to make laptime in different ways seems to be stymied here. It is aero efficiency (as it was for a long time) only - and so you make the numbers and build the car that can hit them.
If there was a team that can find anything other than the usual - I would want to say Alpine as they have form for doing it differently and sometimes well.

I'd like to hope large leaps can be made as it the start of a new reg set, also are the rules not tweaked to allow teams behind more CFD and tunnel time. I'd like and hope McLaren could make a big leap and mix it at the front, they certainly have the capabilities to do that, I'm no expert but hope the floor rule tweaks might open a gap for someone like McLaren but I doubt much change to the order from last year.

[FW17]

As this is not solely about RB and Merc - I'll ask one of you passionate bunch!

Do you see any "great leap" from any of the midfield - or do we have a feeling that there is just not enough scope in the regs to allow for such a leap?

Is there a .5s gain hiding in plan sight? Is the aim of this game only to be corralling your .05s gains and making sure they can all be harnessed at the same time on most tracks?

Do these regs allow even a scintilla of hope for a midfield team to get anywhere close to the sharp end under "normal conditions?"

If there was a team to find and make that leap - which one?

For me - I can't see it as the opportunity to make laptime in different ways seems to be stymied here. It is aero efficiency (as it was for a long time) only - and so you make the numbers and build the car that can hit them.
If there was a team that can find anything other than the usual - I would want to say Alpine as they have form for doing it differently and sometimes well.

I dont think it is possible for the top 3 to change. They are separated within 0.3% which you can reasonably expect to be overturned.

The midfield Alpine to Aston are again within 0.3% of each other, so one can expect them to be competing with each other.

But the gap between the top and midfield is at least 0.8%. When was this deficit been overcome in f1? Unless Mclaren, Alpine or Aston has a Mike Coughlan in their team, I don't see it happening.

[chrisc90]

Does anyone have the gaps between the teams for first half snd 2nd half of the season?

[FW17]

Does anyone have the gaps between the teams for first half snd 2nd half of the season?

% race time difference
First 5 races
Ferrari 0
Red Bull 0.1
Merc 0.9
Alfa Romeo1.4
Haas 1.6
Alpine 1.7
Alfatauri 1.8
Mclaren 1.8
Aston 3.1
Williams 3.2

last race
Red Bull 0
Ferrari 0.3
Merc 0.3
Alpine 0.8
Mclaren 0.8
Aston 1.1
Alfatauri 1.3
Alfa Romeo 1.6
Williams 1.7
Haas 2.0

[CMSMJ1]

Does anyone have the gaps between the teams for first half snd 2nd half of the season?

% race time difference
First 5 races
Ferrari 0
Red Bull 0.1
Merc 0.9
Alfa Romeo1.4
Haas 1.6
Alpine 1.7
Alfatauri 1.8
Mclaren 1.8
Aston 3.1
Williams 3.2

last race
Red Bull 0
Ferrari 0.3
Merc 0.3
Alpine 0.8
Mclaren 0.8
Aston 1.1
Alfatauri 1.3
Alfa Romeo 1.6
Williams 1.7
Haas 2.0

That's an interesting pile of stats.

Would be great for the show if the contraction between fastest and slowest continues.

I am obviously old skool - but I tell you what - a tyre war would give this series a shaking up and allow occasional days for the minnows on the right tyres to take it to the grandee teams on the wrong ones.

[Vanja #66]

Sure they can "run the car lower" because it's not generating as much downforce as before but this benefits no one and I don't quite understand yet why it would be exactly what Mercedes needed (even though I get that they wouldn't have fought for the changes unless it was what they needed).

So I'm very confused

As I said, Mercedes Barca floor was underperforming (necessary evil in 2022) and this will get them a chance to even the playing field with RB and Ferrari - and also give them a chance to run the car lower mechanically which is what they prefer.

Mercedes was competitive when the floor edges were dragging on the tarmac. Red Bull edges did not look anywhere near the tarmac as the Mercedes. So this year with the edges having forced to be higher, it would be a loss of performance for Mercedes, Red Bull not so much as they were already higher.

Edges can and did bend a lot, especially Merc with massive overhang, so they are no reference. Only RB plank was constantly dragging (with excellent wear management, kudos to them) in high speed corners and straights, neither Ferrari (slight bouncing, possibly also by design) nor Merc (bouncing at all times, even with Barca floor) could run the car that low constantly.

RB will lose performance due to edge raising (worse vortex and mechanical sealing, more dirty air in diffuser - same for all teams) and throat raising. Their tunnel/diffuser throat was especially low at one single point (well, line) and this created massive downforce over small surface. This downforce was created in such a way that the tunnels couldn't choke and there was no mechanical induced bouncing, diffuser didn't stall and performance was kept with little bouncing at the lowest ride height. I gave my idea what's going on here

viewtopic.php?f=12&p=1089281#p1089281

As this is not solely about RB and Merc - I'll ask one of you passionate bunch!

Do you see any "great leap" from any of the midfield - or do we have a feeling that there is just not enough scope in the regs to allow for such a leap?

Is there a .5s gain hiding in plan sight? Is the aim of this game only to be corralling your .05s gains and making sure they can all be harnessed at the same time on most tracks?

***

I believe midfield can also gain with these changes vs RB and Ferrari. Floor's peak theoretical downforce is much lower with new rules and it will be much easier for midfield to make-up the performance gap now that rules help with bouncing by design. If you don't need to worry much, you can take risks.

Top 3 will keep being Top 3 due to better integration. However I expect AM, Alpine and McLaren (maybe even Alfa Sauber) will reduce the gap quite a bit. Maybe not 0.5s but 0.35-0.4s honestly look possible.

[godlameroso]

In Bahrain, the best race pace on high fuel was averaging low 1:38's, by season's end that number was probably 1:37's, for 2023 if you see any car doing high fuel runs and in the 36's watch out.

[Spoutnik]

My feelings are :
Red Bull
Ferrari +0.1
Mercedes +0.2
Alpine +0.6/7
Aston Martin +0.6/7
McLaren +0.8
For the rest I dont have any prediction but I think Haas will have a very strong start like last season and Williams wil be much closer to top 10

[organic]

My guess is at the start of the season

1. Ferrari
2. RB/Merc about equal
3. -
4. Aston martin
5. Alpine
6. Haas
7. McLaren
8. Alfa romeo
9. Williams
10. Alpha tauri

But the midfield / backmarkers will be closer in laptime to the frontrunners this year.

[kediown]

1. Redbull
2. Ferrari
3. Mercedes
4. Aston Martin
5. Alpine
6. McLaren
7. Alfa Romeo
8. Haas
9. Williams
10. Alpha Tauri

-I think Redbull and Ferrari relationship will be like Verstappen winning and Ferrari boys being in the podium while Perez is 4th
-Mercedes doesn't give me confidence, I expect Aston Martin to catch them throughout the season
-Expecting grid to be closer, might see surprise podiums
-Expecting Ferrari focus on this season's developments to force Redbull use their Wind Tunnel Time on the second half to disadvantage them in 2024, we might see a good battle depending how close they are in the beginning of the season.

[continuum16]

Having seen every car to some degree and with literally nothing but guesswork, I’d say:

Start of the year:
Frontrunners
Ferrari/Red Bull close like 2022 start
Mercedes (+0.3s)

Midfield
(0.5-0.7s off the frontrunners; leader may vary by track, ranked by most consistent)
Aston Martin
Alpine
Haas
Alfa Romeo
McLaren

Tailenders
1.2-1.7s off the top pace, can occasionally score points in non-crazy races
AlphaTauri
Williams

[AR3-GP]

I think one midfield team will finally break away into no-mans land.