Mercedes W14 Speculation Thread

[chrisc90]

Are you guys thinking Mercedes can catch up this year ? I don’t see them getting out of 3rd place with 1 year late on development, they could even endup 4th place

If the car is right in the first 3 races, yes I see them in the mix. If they are still not where they thought, they are not going to catch up this year either.

It will be mega interesting to compare quali and race pace times with that of last year too. Should give us a indication as the the dent, if any, in performance the changes have brought and who is going to struggle.

We will soon see within 2-3 races who is on top of it, granted there has been a full season of development, it will show who made strong updates over 2022

[ringo]

I dont think they will be behind. There were times when the w13 did look very competitive on race pace. This shows that the team still has quality. I believe if the kinks are ironed out they can challenge redbull.
They can win a constructors with Lewis and George with the 2nd fastest just by virtue of Perez falling behind and not being as consistent.
The redbull may be dominant i am afraid, but mercedes may be close enough to apply pressure and force reliability issues on the redbulls.
I just don't see Newey and his team falling behind on this formula.

[Venturiation]

I dont think they will be behind. There were times when the w13 did look very competitive on race pace. This shows that the team still has quality. I believe if the kinks are ironed out they can challenge redbull.
They can win a constructors with Lewis and George with the 2nd fastest just by virtue of Perez falling behind and not being as consistent.
The redbull may be dominant i am afraid, but mercedes may be close enough to apply pressure and force reliability issues on the redbulls.
I just don't see Newey and his team falling behind on this formula.

Every time the car looked competitive it was because the other teams had something bad happen to them
In abu dhabi they were still too far behind

[Airshifter]

I think they will make up some ground, and might pull up some on Ferrari and RB. But I don't think that entire gap can be made up that quick. They seemed to be getting a better grip on the car and moving forward, but even the off season changes would have to be positive to bring them up to the other two teams if the other two didn't make any positive changes.

[Venturiation]

One thing that intrigues me is how the car can reach the 2 competitors when we know that it was heavily downgraded to stop the porpoising and bouncing

The engine was tuned down
The floor downforce had to be reduced
They had to use Bigger rear wing so more drag
The higher ride height adds even more drag
The suspension was awful
And the setup window was the smallest

How did this car compete with top teams in some races ? There has to be an explanation
And why the midfield didn’t beat them when they had so many problems?

[Chuckjr]

I dont think they will be behind. There were times when the w13 did look very competitive on race pace. This shows that the team still has quality. I believe if the kinks are ironed out they can challenge redbull.
They can win a constructors with Lewis and George with the 2nd fastest just by virtue of Perez falling behind and not being as consistent.
The redbull may be dominant i am afraid, but mercedes may be close enough to apply pressure and force reliability issues on the redbulls.
I just don't see Newey and his team falling behind on this formula.

You wrote this kinda thing all year last year from the moment Merc came out in preseason, and we all saw how it worked out. Why should anyone believe you now?

[Blackout]

One thing that intrigues me is how the car can reach the 2 competitors when we know that it was heavily downgraded to stop the porpoising and bouncing

The engine was tuned down
The floor downforce had to be reduced
They had to use Bigger rear wing so more drag
The higher ride height adds even more drag
The suspension was awful
And the setup window was the smallest

How did this car compete with top teams in some races ? There has to be an explanation
And why the midfield didn’t beat them when they had so many problems?

Because you're over exagerating Mercedes problems. The W13 definitely wasnt as bad as you're saying and repeating.
+ the problems you are talking about are related and compound. So some of them have the same cause, so if Mercedes adresses that cause, they will automatiqually solve the other problems.
+ I dont think the engine was tuned down. And all 4 PUs are very close.
+ no midfield team had half of Mercedes budget until 2021 (and these 2022 cars were born in 2019-2020). And no midfielder had/has as many employees / the same tools / the same knowhow as Mercedes etc

[KimiRai]

+ I dont think the engine was tuned down. And all 4 PUs are very close.

If you look at the alleged raw hp numbers then yes, they look to be very close on paper. But in reality I doubt they are "very" close. There's more to it than just that: the delivery, reliability, packaging and center of gravity, battery capacity, fuel efficiency... and many more.
Without disrespecting the work done at Viry, the hp difference between the renault PU and mercedes PU is likely very low, but on every other aspect the mercedes PU is likely superior. If not, then we wouldn't have seen Alonso with such an ear-to-ear smile after having tested the merc PU.
Close, sure. But not very close imo.

[zeroday]

+ I dont think the engine was tuned down. And all 4 PUs are very close.

One of the yt Merc vidz race debrief or the season recap or was it one of the news sites mentioned they had to turn it down. I believe that is why many outlets report this. Also mentioned the engine was taking serious damage physically due to porposing -- parts falling off. With Merc so focused on band-aiding their W13 all season it makes sense they were not focused on performance and would want to tune down to better understand their problem(s) rather than exacerbate it.

[Blackout]

Okay. Thanks
.

+ I dont think the engine was tuned down. And all 4 PUs are very close.

If you look at the alleged raw hp numbers then yes, they look to be very close on paper. But in reality I doubt they are "very" close. There's more to it than just that: the delivery, reliability, packaging and center of gravity, battery capacity, fuel efficiency... and many more.
Without disrespecting the work done at Viry, the hp difference between the renault PU and mercedes PU is likely very low, but on every other aspect the mercedes PU is likely superior. If not, then we wouldn't have seen Alonso with such an ear-to-ear smile after having tested the merc PU.
Close, sure. But not very close imo.

Yes makes sense; Alonso's smile is more telling than the analysis that the engineers made on the performance of each engine in every mesurable aspect on the track, not only peak power......
The analysis AMuS and others reported are not only about top speed and peak power but also on delivery in corners + every portion of the straight lines.
And the results are that the differences are the smallest ever which makes it difficult to pinpoint a clear nr1 and a clear nr4 and that the pecking order changes from circuit to circuit.
And since the Renault joined the size-zero group, and opted for the split turbo + an air-water intercooler, its probably one of the smallest PUs.
Regarding weight, it's probably very light too, since Alpine adds ballast to it (which also means its center of gravity is exactly where it needs to be) + the fact the A522 was one of the lightest cars.
.

but on every other aspect the mercedes PU is likely superior.

Based on what? other than Alonso's fake smile after he drove the draggy, heavy and slow Aston, which definitely makes it very hard for a driver to notice the small differences between engines
Yes Mercedes si probably still the reference in many areas. But the gaps are probably extremely small today.

[Venturiation]

Okay. Thanks
.

+ I dont think the engine was tuned down. And all 4 PUs are very close.

If you look at the alleged raw hp numbers then yes, they look to be very close on paper. But in reality I doubt they are "very" close. There's more to it than just that: the delivery, reliability, packaging and center of gravity, battery capacity, fuel efficiency... and many more.
Without disrespecting the work done at Viry, the hp difference between the renault PU and mercedes PU is likely very low, but on every other aspect the mercedes PU is likely superior. If not, then we wouldn't have seen Alonso with such an ear-to-ear smile after having tested the merc PU.
Close, sure. But not very close imo.

Yes makes sense; Alonso's smile is more telling than the analysis that the engineers made on the performance of each engine in every mesurable aspect on the track, not only peak power......
The analysis AMuS and others reported are not only about top speed and peak power but also on delivery in corners + every portion of the straight lines.
And the results are that the differences are the smallest ever which makes it difficult to pinpoint a clear nr1 and a clear nr4 and that the pecking order changes from circuit to circuit.
And since the Renault joined the size-zero group, and opted for the split turbo + an air-water intercooler, its probably one of the smallest PUs.
Regarding weight, it's probably very light too, since Alpine adds ballast to it (which also means its center of gravity is exactly where it needs to be) + the fact the A522 was one of the lightest cars.
.

but on every other aspect the mercedes PU is likely superior.

Based on what? other than Alonso's fake smile after he drove the draggy, heavy and slow Aston, which definitely makes it very hard for a driver to notice the small differences between engines
Yes Mercedes si probably still the reference in many areas. But the gaps are probably extremely small today.

Mercedes themselves said they had to tune down the pu and remove floor downforce because the engine was getting destroyed by porpoising and to limit porpoising they had to be slower

[Venturiation]

At the start of the season all the merc PU cars where the slowest in straight line speed and everything engine related

But was that because of PU or a coincidence that all merc pu customers failed their aero design

Or is that because of the rear suspension being caught out by porpoising

[napoleon1981]

At the start of the season all the merc PU cars where the slowest in straight line speed and everything engine related

But was that because of PU or a coincidence that all merc pu customers failed their aero design

Or is that because of the rear suspension being caught out by porpoising

Speed on the straight is determined by drag.

And yes, I think from the drastic changes on the aero package of Williams and AM, we can conclude they admitted to their failed aero design.

btw look at the topspeed chart from Monza last year... Williams with the Merc engine.

[Big Tea]

At the start of the season all the merc PU cars where the slowest in straight line speed and everything engine related

But was that because of PU or a coincidence that all merc pu customers failed their aero design

Or is that because of the rear suspension being caught out by porpoising

Speed on the straight is determined by drag.

And yes, I think from the drastic changes on the aero package of Williams and AM, we can conclude they admitted to their failed aero design.

btw look at the topspeed chart from Monza last year... Williams with the Merc engine.

We should also account for the past workbook.
Merc, and Merc powered teams have for the last few years at least, always had the last ditch defence of turning the engine up if there was a shortfall in track performance due to unclean aero, this year they did not. Where as the non Merc teams took this into consideration from early design stage, it is a new parameter for the Merc engine teams and they may not have known exactly hoe much weight to give to it and underestimated how much a small difference on drag would stick onto a lap time.

If they were looking at equations of HP v time, they would be all wrong once HP is a constant and lower than traditionally used. I suspect we will see slippery cars from these teams now that they have been stung by it.
( know they have the actual numbers, but experience does not always let you see what is there.)

[KimiRai]

Based on what? other than Alonso's fake smile after he drove the draggy, heavy and slow Aston, which definitely makes it very hard for a driver to notice the small differences between engines

I believe people for who racing is basically their entire life would be able to feel differences in engines even if they were small margins. Especially Fernando, the most experienced driver of all time who is known for having a think at everything and using every detail in his favour... I'm fairly confident that after a long run they are able to notice differences.
Second the smile was not fake, this was confirmed by his inner circle. After having Honda engines (when they were terrible) and Renault engines for the last 7 years he was positively surprised.

Yes Mercedes si probably still the reference in many areas. But the gaps are probably extremely small today.

So after that whole explanation you agreed with me anyways. I'm just saying that there is more than hp.