2023 pecking order predictions

[mendis]

While everyone is playing safe, let me go a little audacious here.

First 5 races (Race pace)
1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari +0.4
3. Mercedes +1.2 (What we have seen is 2023 contender, Phase 1 if that's what we can call)
4. Alpha Tauri + 1.5
4. Aston Martin/McLaren +1.6
5. Alfa Romeo/Alpine +1.8
6. Haas + 2.2
7. Williams + 2.5

Races after 5 (Race pace)
1. Red Bull
2. Ferrari +0.2
3. Mercedes +0.8 (Actual 2023 race car)
4. Aston Martin + 1.2
5. McLaren/Alpine + 1.4
6. Alfa Romeo/Alpha Tauri +1.6
7. Haas +1.8
8. Williams +2.2

[jumpingfish]

Bold prediction:

1. SF-23 0.0s
2. RB19 +0.2s
3. W14 + 0.5s
4. AMR23 +0.7s
5. A523 + 0.75s
6. MCL60 +0.8s
7. C43 +0.9s
8. VF-23 +1.1s
9. AT04 +1.15s
10. FW45 +1.2s

[SirBastianVettel]

My prediction, not sure if it's bold or not.

1. MB
2. FER (+0.1s)
3. RBR (+0.3s)
4. AMR (+0.6)
5. ALP (+0.61)
6. AR (+0.
7. MCL (+0.81)
8. AT (+0.9)
9. HAS (+0.91)
10. WLS (+1.3)

[McMika98]

Pretty sure there will be cars that will suit certain tracks, on average I think it will be

Less than 0.2s gap: Redbull, Ferrari, Merc

0.2 - 0.5s: Alpine, McLaren, Aston Martin

0.7 - 1.5s: Haas, Alfa Romeo, Alpha Tauri & Williams

[Chuckjr]

Ferrari
Red Bull
Aston
Merc
Alpine
Macca
Haas

I think the Ferrari engine boost will take them to the top. Yea, call me crazy, I don’t care. I think RB will out develop everybody tho, so it’s important for Ferrari to score early. I think RB will be better than Ferrari at some tracks and vice versa, but Ferrari will be faster more often till the end of the season because of Shaall — he’s a better driver than Max.

I’m most impressed with the AM offering. The ski jump ramps flanking the trunkline of the car are stellar. Well done AM. I think Aston with Fred at the helm will do well. Nobody can wring a car out like Fred. Nobody. He will put that car away wet every race weekend. It’s one of the joys of watching him. I think he fights with Merc all season and unless testing renders otherwise, will take some podiums. Stroll will still be wondering how to drive the car by years end. Lol. That guy is in F1 solely because of his dad. Smh.

The Merc looks aimless to me. I’m not convinced they understand their car yet. It looks as tho admission of fundamental design failure was worse than doing this, so they did this. I think they will struggle trying to make it work. Honestly, I hope I’m wrong because it’s a better sport the more teams that can win on merit. I think George will beat Lewis, yet again. If the car is still bad, I think Lewis might retire.

Looking forward to testing, big time.

[DChemTech]

Interesting to see some radical new concepts still rather than everyone just going for RB-style stuff. Will it really shake things up? Going by history, probably not, but I'll just go for a rather unlikely pecking order that, if it materializes, would make for a good season (although a different pecking order is of course no guarantee for good races). So here we go:

1) AM/Alonso
2) RB
3) Ferrari
4) AM/Stroll
5) Renault (even if they have something similar to AM and that concept turns out to be excellent, I expect them to ruin it, somehow)
6) Williams
7) MB (as said - I'll go for unlikely; this is probably one of those things that can turn 50 cents into 50 million cents at a bookmarker if it turns out true)
8 ) Haas
9) AR
10) McL
11) AT (it just looks so boring)

[organic]

Interesting to see some radical new concepts still rather than everyone just going for RB-style stuff. Will it really shake things up? Going by history, probably not, but I'll just go for a rather unlikely pecking order that, if it materializes, would make for a good season (although a different pecking order is of course no guarantee for good races). So here we go:

1) AM/Alonso
2) RB
3) Ferrari
4) AM/Stroll
5) Renault (even if they have something similar to AM and that concept turns out to be excellent, I expect them to ruin it, somehow)
6) Williams
7) MB (as said - I'll go for unlikely; this is probably one of those things that can turn 50 cents into 50 million cents at a bookmarker if it turns out true)
8 ) Haas
9) AR
10) McL
11) AT (it just looks so boring)

Bahahha

[DChemTech]

Interesting to see some radical new concepts still rather than everyone just going for RB-style stuff. Will it really shake things up? Going by history, probably not, but I'll just go for a rather unlikely pecking order that, if it materializes, would make for a good season (although a different pecking order is of course no guarantee for good races). So here we go:

1) AM/Alonso
2) RB
3) Ferrari
4) AM/Stroll
5) Renault (even if they have something similar to AM and that concept turns out to be excellent, I expect them to ruin it, somehow)
6) Williams
7) MB (as said - I'll go for unlikely; this is probably one of those things that can turn 50 cents into 50 million cents at a bookmarker if it turns out true)
8 ) Haas
9) AR
10) McL
11) AT (it just looks so boring)

Bahahha

Had to be done - I wanted to suggest something unlikely, not something impossible .
But of course, similar notes can be made for other teams, they'll all have performance differentials to some degree.
So let's put in some other unlikely predictions. Alonso for WDC, Ferrari, despite being 3th in my ranking, becoming WCC because of underperformance of Stroll and Perez, respectively (note: nothing against Perez there, just my hunch hat the car will be very Max-oriented, and hard to drive for others).

[F1NAC]

1.RB
2.Fer
3.Mer
4.AM
5.McL (close to Alp but better drivers)
6.Alp
7.AR
8.Haas
9.AT
10.Williams

Regarding front runners. I expect 2011ish level of preformance sadly for me. RB in front, boring races etc. I'm preparing myself for the worst.

[LM10]

1.RB
2.Fer
3.Mer
4.AM
5.McL (close to Alp but better drivers)
6.Alp
7.AR
8.Haas
9.AT
10.Williams

Regarding front runners. I expect 2011ish level of preformance sadly for me. RB in front, boring races etc. I'm preparing myself for the worst.

So you assume Ferrari have done zero progress on race pace?

[F1NAC]

1.RB
2.Fer
3.Mer
4.AM
5.McL (close to Alp but better drivers)
6.Alp
7.AR
8.Haas
9.AT
10.Williams

Regarding front runners. I expect 2011ish level of preformance sadly for me. RB in front, boring races etc. I'm preparing myself for the worst.

So you assume Ferrari have done zero progress on race pace?

Not really. I’m overly optimistic regarding Ferrari, but based on past experiences I think that RB19 will be too strong.

I hope I’m wrong

I mean, Seb didn’t had that much of a pace advantage, but it would be always(annoyingly) enough to no one bothers him.

[ali623]

Most interesting in my opinion are Mercedes and the theoretical front-running midfielders (Alpine, McLaren and possible AM).

I expect Red Bull and Ferrari to be similarly paced at the front again, at least during the start of the season, as long as Ferrari have indeed recouped their engine performance. My best guess is Mercedes will start slightly behind but closer than last season (maybe similar relative performance to the back-end of last season).

McLaren, despite a rather negative sounding launch, will be fine, but probably not much closer to the front, so expecting a similar season to last year minus the terrible start. Aston to be in the mix with McLaren but I think Alpine will have taken a step ahead and crucially fixed their reliability.

Haas will start very well again but fall off as the season progresses, Alfa Romeo will be there in the middle of the midfield. AT and Williams hanging off the back again.

Generally though, the whole grid will be slightly tighter than last year, something like this

Red Bull/Ferrari
Mercedes (+0.2/3s)
Alpine (+0.6/7s)
McLaren/AM (+0.8/9s)
Haas/AR (+1-1.2s)
AT/Williams (1.2-1.5s)

[AR3-GP]

I'm having trouble placing Ferrari and Red Bull. They will be at the top but I can't predict the order.

If Ferrari restore their PU effectiveness, while Red Bull cure their low speed understeer and weight issues, they should be right on target. Hammer and tong through the first couple GP weekends.

[JPower]

I'll just give my predictions for the first quarter of races. Anything after Race 5-6 will depend on development.

T1. Ferrari
T1. Red Bull
3. Mercedes
4. Alpine
5. Aston
6. Haas
7. Alfa
8. McLaren
9. AlphaTauri
10. Williams

To me, there wasn't enough difference in outright speed between RB and Ferrari for there to be any significant distance between them this year, especially given that a compromised/undeveloped F1-75 was still quick enough to grab pole(or near pole) in the second half of the season. That might change during the race but I expect a similar story to the first few races of 2022, except that Sainz should be more competitive.

Mercedes will develop their way into the race. It might take them a few races to get their feet under them but won't be far off. Alpine and Aston might end up being a dogfight. I'm looking forward to that one. Alfa and Haas might be there at the start too, if the Ferrari PU is as good as expected. McLaren sounds like they won't be truly ready until the first upgrade in Baku. AT and Williams will be near the back.

[Apexseal157]

1/2 Red Bull and Ferrari
3 Mercedes

4/5Alpine and McLaren
6/7 Aston and Alfa
8 Alpha Tauri
9/10 Haas and Williams

I think the grid will tighten up, there will still be a top 3 but I think the midfield will be very close from 4th to 10th, would expect teams like Merc, Mclaren and AT to develop quickly (the AT is so bland that i dont belive it'll stay that way for long. I think the Alfa is also being underestimated a bit, although I can see it falling off compared to the AM, McL and Alpine trio but it'll probably be track specific, with Haas and Williams being in the mix as well. I do think the Merc will be fast come mid season with upgrades, maybe it'll get wins at some tracks that suit it but I dont think it'll be able to beat ferrari and red bull over the whole season, as far as the top two I'm not sure at all, if the Ferrari doesn't explode I'm sure it'll be a close battle with RB