Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
I'd hazard a guess there will be more than one team with no points this year. If it is to be believed that there are 4 teams ahead of the midfield, barring no reliability or racing incidents, there will only be 2 points scoring positions available.
RB are clearly more prepared than the majority of the field and go in as my favourites to retain the constructors.
I don’t think there is a right or wrong answer to your question, but for simplicity I think of it as the pecking order for the first few races. In my opinion, the initial pecking order will be less deterministic of the final result than 2022, which would improve the spectacle this year and hopefully continue to improve it even more in 2024 and 2025
This season should be very different to 2022 due to three factors:
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I agree with almost everything you wrote, except maybe only a littlebit for the early shift by almost everyone.
Especially for all the other points I would like to know if the predictions should generally be considered to be end-of-season predictions, if not stated otherwise?
I would say the best case scenario would be a 2021-type repeat with Ferrari and RB out front of a conglomerate, generally headed by Mercedes (who will be like Ferrari '21) and Aston (McLaren '21) a shade behind. If the stars align any of the top 4 could win, but it would have to take a lot for Merc or Aston to win, or be an outlier track like Monza or Monaco. Sticking to the 2021 theme, McLaren would take AlphaTauri's place as Alpine's competitor for 5th place, with Alfa in the Aston Martin-esque doldrums between sixth and eighth place, with Haas, AlphaTauri, and Williams at the back where the WCC order will be determined by shock races and good fortune.
In reality, I think we are looking at a 2022 repeat in terms of final standings (not necessarily race 1 order), except McLaren and AM switch. AM might even be faster than Alpine and have the driver that finishes P7 in the standings, but the second driver will be a weakness (missed testing and/or races will be mentioned endlessly if Stroll gets obliterated by Alonso, which is possible).
"You can't argue with stupid people, they will drag you down to their level and beat you with experience"
- Mark Twain
Does nobody find it odd that a few at RB come out and said that AM would be the ones to watch this season.
I guess most of the teams will have a bit batter between them, but that was a Ann good prediction from red bull/Marko if AM are actually up with the top 3 this season.
Have you seen their windtunnel allocation?i don’t know if the race ops are up to scratch, but their in-season development will be bigger than the top 3.
WEll, you are a smart cookie. They're are 3,628,800 different orders in which 10 teams can finish in the contructors. The first thing you did was to reduce it the teams to 7 (or classes if you will). By doing so you increased your odds to 1 in 5K.
You say you went out on limb but really, you trimmed it.
