A theoretical question, if anyone fancies a go at it.
What would happen if Merc said 'sod it, lets sort it' and ignored the cost cap?
Throw resources at it irrespective of limits, just get it sorted. It looks unlikely to be anywhere close to a title this year, so blow the budget and aim for the best car next year.
Huge fine? its just cash, they can absorb that no problem.
Exclusion from the season? I don't think anything other than winning means much to them, so no loss.
Next year they would then have a car not only competitive but probably in contention and have computers full of data that has been tested for following years.
Is it only this year they would be excluded form or could they face consecutive years exclusion? To me, anything else is not really a deterrent.
They may even be able to pass a lot of the cost off by spending what they saved on engineers on accountants
When arguing with a fool, be sure the other person is not doing the same thing.