2023 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Baku, April 28 - 30

[Juzh]

Leclerc is in a good position for sunday. I don't think RB have enough to overtake him on track, they couldn't last year and this year ferrari is almost a match on top end. RB is only faster by around 1-2 kmh before DRS and ~5 kmh with DRS.

It's 10km/h advantage with DRS on the final Q3 runs and that doesn't account for slipstreaming or the leading car depleting their ERS after several laps of defending.

Yes, yes I checked. When both cars are deploying it's 5 kmh and 1-2 kmh before drs. When ferrari is saving for later its 10 kmh.

[dialtone]

Sharing some telemetry without much commentary (gotta take my kid to school):

LEC v VER 2023:


LEC v VER 2022:


LEC v LEC 2022/23 (green 2023):


VER v VER 2022/23 (green 2023):

[AR3-GP]

Leclerc is in a good position for sunday. I don't think RB have enough to overtake him on track, they couldn't last year and this year ferrari is almost a match on top end. RB is only faster by around 1-2 kmh before DRS and ~5 kmh with DRS.

It's 10km/h advantage with DRS on the final Q3 runs and that doesn't account for slipstreaming or the leading car depleting their ERS after several laps of defending.

Yes, yes I checked. When both cars are deploying it's 5 kmh and 1-2 kmh before drs. When ferrari is saving for later its 10 kmh.

What purpose does "saving for later" have? Do RB "save for later"?

[Juzh]

It's 10km/h advantage with DRS on the final Q3 runs and that doesn't account for slipstreaming or the leading car depleting their ERS after several laps of defending.

Yes, yes I checked. When both cars are deploying it's 5 kmh and 1-2 kmh before drs. When ferrari is saving for later its 10 kmh.

What purpose does "saving for later" have? Do RB "save for later"?

When you're marginal with energy you save some in places where it's less of a hit on laptime to use up in places where it benefits laptime. Simple eh?
RB very obviously (and acknowledged by honda) have more energy to deploy around the lap, that's why they don't suffer from those dips at some parts of the track. If RB had genuine 10 kmh advantage in drag they'd be half a second clear just on the main straight.

[AR3-GP]

Yes, yes I checked. When both cars are deploying it's 5 kmh and 1-2 kmh before drs. When ferrari is saving for later its 10 kmh.

What purpose does "saving for later" have? Do RB "save for later"?

When you're marginal with energy you save some in places where it's less of a hit on laptime to use up in places where it benefits laptime. Simple eh?
RB very obviously (and acknowledged by honda) have more energy to deploy around the lap, that's why they don't suffer from those dips at some parts of the track. If RB had genuine 10 kmh advantage in drag they'd be half a second clear just on the main straight.

You were thinking that RB might have a difficult time passing because of last year (even though we never saw the conclusion because of a retirement).

So what reason does Ferrari have to "Save for later". In their pole lap, it was 10 km/h. If they are diverting energy to another part of the lap, then when they use it on the straight, they are losing laptime in another, more important part of the lap. This would just mean it allows RB to get even closer through S2/S3 if Ferrari are diverting energy to use on the main straight.

[Juzh]

What purpose does "saving for later" have? Do RB "save for later"?

When you're marginal with energy you save some in places where it's less of a hit on laptime to use up in places where it benefits laptime. Simple eh?
RB very obviously (and acknowledged by honda) have more energy to deploy around the lap, that's why they don't suffer from those dips at some parts of the track. If RB had genuine 10 kmh advantage in drag they'd be half a second clear just on the main straight.

You were thinking that RB might have a difficult time passing because of last year (even though we never saw the conclusion because of a retirement).

So what reason does Ferrari have to "Save for later". In their pole lap, it was 10 km/h. If they are diverting energy to another part of the lap, then when they use it on the straight, they are losing laptime in another, more important part of the lap. This would just mean it allows RB to get even closer through S2/S3 if Ferrari are diverting energy to use on the main straight.

If I remember correctly we had similar situation last year and Ver wasn't able to close up a lot. Anyway we'll find out in few days time.

[dialtone]

What purpose does "saving for later" have? Do RB "save for later"?

When you're marginal with energy you save some in places where it's less of a hit on laptime to use up in places where it benefits laptime. Simple eh?
RB very obviously (and acknowledged by honda) have more energy to deploy around the lap, that's why they don't suffer from those dips at some parts of the track. If RB had genuine 10 kmh advantage in drag they'd be half a second clear just on the main straight.

You were thinking that RB might have a difficult time passing because of last year (even though we never saw the conclusion because of a retirement).

So what reason does Ferrari have to "Save for later". In their pole lap, it was 10 km/h. If they are diverting energy to another part of the lap, then when they use it on the straight, they are losing laptime in another, more important part of the lap. This would just mean it allows RB to get even closer through S2/S3 if Ferrari are diverting energy to use on the main straight.

They had 10+ laps last year to pass LEC, almost all of those with DRS, similar thing in Miami where they had 8 laps to pass and yet Max was able only to pass into T1 after LEC botched T17 allowed Max to beat him in acceleration.

Top speed differences between these 2 cars are too small to be enough to pass easily when both are setup for low drag, you need to set it up over a few laps. For other cars it's a different deal though.

[AR3-GP]

When you're marginal with energy you save some in places where it's less of a hit on laptime to use up in places where it benefits laptime. Simple eh?
RB very obviously (and acknowledged by honda) have more energy to deploy around the lap, that's why they don't suffer from those dips at some parts of the track. If RB had genuine 10 kmh advantage in drag they'd be half a second clear just on the main straight.

You were thinking that RB might have a difficult time passing because of last year (even though we never saw the conclusion because of a retirement).

So what reason does Ferrari have to "Save for later". In their pole lap, it was 10 km/h. If they are diverting energy to another part of the lap, then when they use it on the straight, they are losing laptime in another, more important part of the lap. This would just mean it allows RB to get even closer through S2/S3 if Ferrari are diverting energy to use on the main straight.

If I remember correctly we had similar situation last year and Ver wasn't able to close up a lot. Anyway we'll find out in few days time.

We will, but again I can't stress enough how much the first stint on high fuel with soft tires is about management, not all out concern for overtaking. If it would come easy, he would have went for it but the first stint isn't really the time to attack so we'll never know.

[AR3-GP]

When you're marginal with energy you save some in places where it's less of a hit on laptime to use up in places where it benefits laptime. Simple eh?
RB very obviously (and acknowledged by honda) have more energy to deploy around the lap, that's why they don't suffer from those dips at some parts of the track. If RB had genuine 10 kmh advantage in drag they'd be half a second clear just on the main straight.

You were thinking that RB might have a difficult time passing because of last year (even though we never saw the conclusion because of a retirement).

So what reason does Ferrari have to "Save for later". In their pole lap, it was 10 km/h. If they are diverting energy to another part of the lap, then when they use it on the straight, they are losing laptime in another, more important part of the lap. This would just mean it allows RB to get even closer through S2/S3 if Ferrari are diverting energy to use on the main straight.

They had 10+ laps last year to pass LEC, almost all of those with DRS, similar thing in Miami where they had 8 laps to pass and yet Max was able only to pass into T1 after LEC botched T17 allowed Max to beat him in acceleration.

Top speed differences between these 2 cars are too small to be enough to pass easily when both are setup for low drag, you need to set it up over a few laps. For other cars it's a different deal though.

It's different when cars are on high fuel. They have to look after the tires first and fore most. It's early in the championship. The driving is different.

We don't know how it would look in the final laps with a win on the line because it didn't happen. Leclerc retired in Baku very early. Overtaking is not "easy" but people saying it could never happen are getting ahead of themselves.

[dialtone]

It's different when cars are on high fuel. They have to look after the tires first and fore most. It's early in the championship. The driving is different.

We don't know how it would look in the final laps with a win on the line because it didn't happen. Leclerc retired in Baku very early. Overtaking is not "easy" but people saying it could never happen are getting ahead of themselves.

I agree with you that there's obvious chances that it could happen, in practice IMHO it will happen because RBR has shown much better race pace so they will come out of T15-16 much better in the race once tires start to degrade, but the 100m shorter DRS part makes it quite tough actually, they have DRS for a little more than 4 seconds at 330kph (91m/s and ~400m of DRS), they need to be very very near before the DRS zone to pass.

[Sieper]

Wind direction is also a big factor here. And yes, we have less DRS, but as a consequence also more slipstreaming before it.

[AR3-GP]

It's different when cars are on high fuel. They have to look after the tires first and fore most. It's early in the championship. The driving is different.

We don't know how it would look in the final laps with a win on the line because it didn't happen. Leclerc retired in Baku very early. Overtaking is not "easy" but people saying it could never happen are getting ahead of themselves.

I agree with you that there's obvious chances that it could happen, in practice IMHO it will happen because RBR has shown much better race pace so they will come out of T15-16 much better in the race once tires start to degrade, but the 100m shorter DRS part makes it quite tough actually, they have DRS for a little more than 4 seconds at 330kph (91m/s and ~400m of DRS), they need to be very very near before the DRS zone to pass.

Well I’ll just say this. If the quickest straight line car (RB) can’t overtake anymore, then no one else has any hope of overtaking here and we will have a major snooze fest.

[Zynerji]

It's different when cars are on high fuel. They have to look after the tires first and fore most. It's early in the championship. The driving is different.

We don't know how it would look in the final laps with a win on the line because it didn't happen. Leclerc retired in Baku very early. Overtaking is not "easy" but people saying it could never happen are getting ahead of themselves.

I agree with you that there's obvious chances that it could happen, in practice IMHO it will happen because RBR has shown much better race pace so they will come out of T15-16 much better in the race once tires start to degrade, but the 100m shorter DRS part makes it quite tough actually, they have DRS for a little more than 4 seconds at 330kph (91m/s and ~400m of DRS), they need to be very very near before the DRS zone to pass.

Well I’ll just say this. If the quickest straight line car (RB) can’t overtake anymore, then no one else has any hope of overtaking here and we will have a major snooze fest.

We could have another Singapore2010 situation with Ferrari and RBR where the only thing better than Alonso's master class at the front was Vettel's drive in Fernando's dirty air. That might be fantastic actually...

[AR3-GP]

I agree with you that there's obvious chances that it could happen, in practice IMHO it will happen because RBR has shown much better race pace so they will come out of T15-16 much better in the race once tires start to degrade, but the 100m shorter DRS part makes it quite tough actually, they have DRS for a little more than 4 seconds at 330kph (91m/s and ~400m of DRS), they need to be very very near before the DRS zone to pass.

Well I’ll just say this. If the quickest straight line car (RB) can’t overtake anymore, then no one else has any hope of overtaking here and we will have a major snooze fest.

We could have another Singapore2010 situation with Ferrari and RBR where the only thing better than Alonso's master class at the front was Vettel's drive in Fernando's dirty air. That might be fantastic actually...

I don't mind races like this. I was trying to use the "popular opinion" for this kind of race

[Xyz22]

Leclerc is in a good position for sunday. I don't think RB have enough to overtake him on track, they couldn't last year and this year ferrari is almost a match on top end. RB is only faster by around 1-2 kmh before DRS and ~5 kmh with DRS.

DRS zone shorter by 100m will further make Leclerc's life easier.

Anyway, good performance by Lec, Verstappen matching his own PB in S2 from first q3 lap would still not be enough for pole (few hundredths off).

Leclerc could resist if delta between the two cars in race trim will be under 0.4 / 0.3s. If it's bigger, than he won't have any chance to keep P1 on track, let alone with undercut / overcut strategies.