mwillems wrote: ↑30 Apr 2023, 18:46
But on a track where a Safety Car can change everything and has a very high likelihood of happening I don't think it is the right choice, but that is my opinion.
The graphs posted on Friday showing us ahead of Hamilton and Alonso by over three tenths at various points of the Q3 lap, losing a little on the first two straights before going back to 3 tenths up, before losing the lot and being 1 tenth back after the straight (Albeit we had no tow), demonstrate that we had pace but bet heavily on the twisty section and on more Downforce.
I don't think we could have had P4 like Lando suggested on Friday, maybe P5, but it is frustrating because the team messed this up a little weekend.
Sending the two out without a tow on Friday, into clean air, was silly, as was wasting tyres but that's just the sprint race. Putting on the downforce they did gave us the "logically" fastest setup that was always going to too easy come undone in the race. We can't overtake in the corners here, what is the point of that downforce other than for Qualy and for tyres which I think was less important than making headway on the straights. Even then we changed before many others anyway, so there was no need to protect the tyres. I don't even think having more DF made us much faster, I think we could have been just as fast by scrubbing some wing and had more pace to overtake on the straights.
I feel like we could have done much better there and the team didn't have their best day at the strategy office.
Grrrr
Your logic is sound, but we may not know all the variables… Not disagreeing with your assessment of qualifying and sending them out without a potential tow, you are spot on and that was a mistake by Team.
Regarding the race, the team did pit early in the stint to get out of the Mediums, was it because wear/degradation? If that was the case (which I presume was), imagine how the deg would have been without the additional DF, maybe virtually impossible to do a one-stop race (or drop like a bomb at the end of the race)… I would argue that the team expected to be racing in no-mans land, effectively behind the “top 4” and with clean air, if that’s the case the lower DF config is the fastest way to finish the race, since with more DF you are effectively carrying more speed in every corner (when not under acceleration), this is what creates “race pace” and the biggest difference between the top teams and the rest, beyond protecting the tires.
In addition, a lower DF configuration isn’t a guarantee of an overtake, since the problem resides somewhere else… With less DF, not only do you wear your tires faster, the “dirty air” behind another increases it and is harder to stay close to the car in front of you, therefore by the time you finished S2 you may actually be out of DRS range and it doesn’t matter how low your DF config is, you are not overtaking.
The Red Bull actually had more DF than the Ferrari’s for this race, that’s why while Perez / Verstappen were able to close in on Leclerc in S2 (and therefore make the overtake in the main straight), for Leclerc it was the opposite, it was in S2 were he lost most of the lap time to the other two and simply couldn’t stay in within DRS range… Why was the Ferrari faster in Qualy? Because with sticky soft tires and low fuel, lack of DF can be masked… During the race and having to protect the tires, that goes away.
I would argue that as frustrating as it was to watch Norris behind Hulkenberg all race long (or 80% of it at least), it wasn’t due to a bad strategy call from the Team, simply a reflection of a car that isn’t the fastest or slipperiest on the track in a race where overtaking was almost impossible unless you had a huge pace delta to the car in front (and that car didn’t had DRS or a tow).