2023 car speculation

[chrisc90]

so every car is converging in a Ferrari/Redbull hybrid

how can mercedes stay different? there has to be something

If the Mercedes design is the 'elephant in the room' for the 2023 season then I can see there being a lot of unhappy people/fans around. If every other team is doing the tweaked/hybrid design of Ferrari/RB then there must be a lot of credibility in their designs.

[bosyber]

so every car is converging in a Ferrari/Redbull hybrid

how can mercedes stay different? there has to be something

If the Mercedes design is the 'elephant in the room' for the 2023 season then I can see there being a lot of unhappy people/fans around. If every other team is doing the tweaked/hybrid design of Ferrari/RB then there must be a lot of credibility in their designs.

Well, they were the fastest and 2nd fastest (bar engine reliablility even!) cars, so that's a clear reason, w/o any other needed. Still, Mercedes insisted that their weakness wasn't due to the sidepods, so I don't really see them switch to another concept in which they will have to start over and know they lag behind the others.

[chrisc90]

so every car is converging in a Ferrari/Redbull hybrid

how can mercedes stay different? there has to be something

If the Mercedes design is the 'elephant in the room' for the 2023 season then I can see there being a lot of unhappy people/fans around. If every other team is doing the tweaked/hybrid design of Ferrari/RB then there must be a lot of credibility in their designs.

Well, they were the fastest and 2nd fastest (bar engine reliablility even!) cars, so that's a clear reason, w/o any other needed. Still, Mercedes insisted that their weakness wasn't due to the sidepods, so I don't really see them switch to another concept in which they will have to start over and know they lag behind the others.

True. But as we seen in the early stages of last year....the bigger threat might be from behind. Basically what I'm saying is if the lower down teams can get a few tenths a lap with a design that's already been proven to have the fastest lap times, then unless Mercedes can make gains relative to that on their zero pod concept, IF they continue with it, then they could well be getting caught up from behind.

It all depends how much these Ferrari/RB hybrid designs will give teams lap time wise

[Peter1919]

Pretty much every year in this sport, we see distinct separation of teams based not on outwardly observable aspects, but by such details.

Two of the most influential things on current F1 cars' aero performance are their diffusers and venturi tunnels neither of which we have seen any details of for any of the cars so its impossible to see which teams have mode progress in these areas.

[henry]

Last year I did some analysis of the qualifying performance gap at each circuit between 2022 with the new cars and the last time they ran under the previous regulations.

The general trend was that the front end cars increased their gap to the midfield and the tail end reduced the gap. (I processed them in groups of 4 rather than specific teams). Midfield gaps were much the same across the reg change. But the results were not very consistent track to track since not all races were represented by 2021 results and, personal opinion, teams were feeling their way into the new regs.

Since I’ve got the spreadsheets ready I’ll repeat the process this year with hopefully more consistent results.

[Seanspeed]

Two of the most influential things on current F1 cars' aero performance are their diffusers and venturi tunnels neither of which we have seen any details of for any of the cars so its impossible to see which teams have mode progress in these areas.

Well my point is that 'seeing' them isn't gonna tell us much in the first place in terms of how the teams will shape up competitively.

[javalinex]

[bonjon1979]

The weight distribution is somewhat irrelevant with respect to the tire because the cars are generating more than their weight in downforce. The distribution of that downforce is defined by the aero balance. Since aero balance is not mandated by the regulations, there is no actual spec weight distribution w.r.t the tire when the cars are at speed.

Not so according to Ross brawn. And with all respect I reckon I’ll take his word for it!


"If the weight distribution remained free, then some would get it right by accident while others get it totally wrong. That's what we want to avoid," said FOTA's technical boss Ross Brawn.

I don't really get your point. Aero loads equal the car's weight and more. When the car is at speed, the weight distribution is changed by the aero balance which is not regulated. So the static weight distribution mandated by the regulation is defeated to an extent as it's weighting can be 50% or less when the aero load exceeds the car's weight.

Even when not at speed, the car must have an engine and gearbox in the rear, and a crash structure in the front, wheels at the 4 corners. The variance of the static weight distribution if it was free wouldn't vary all that much between the cars and is certainly not going to be a case of "some got it right" and others "totally wrong". I am happy to go against what Ross said because I think you are reading it out of context. Right and "totally wrong" is being taken completely out of context. It's an exaggeration.

Wasn't aware that I was talking in absolute terms of Right and totally wrong. Just giving you the reasons why the weight distribution rules were brought in as explained by the person who helped formulate the rules.

[organic]

https://i.imgur.com/oo1s06b.png

You can add Williams to this. They have the same feature

[vorticism]

RB penalty period is going to be over by October and they go back to full steam development. RB19 is mostly a refined RB18 and as Marko quoted somewhere, they couldn't work on some big ideas due to penalty, which they would implement once they get over the penalty.

Speculation time. Mid-wing, waterslides, S-duct, something new, etc.

[AR3-GP]

RB penalty period is going to be over by October and they go back to full steam development. RB19 is mostly a refined RB18 and as Marko quoted somewhere, they couldn't work on some big ideas due to penalty, which they would implement once they get over the penalty.

Speculation time. Mid-wing, waterslides, S-duct, something new, etc.

I'll be stunned if this supposed 2.5 tenths upgrade in Baku, doesn't result in an obvious visual change to upper surfaces of the car.

[organic]

RB penalty period is going to be over by October and they go back to full steam development. RB19 is mostly a refined RB18 and as Marko quoted somewhere, they couldn't work on some big ideas due to penalty, which they would implement once they get over the penalty.

Speculation time. Mid-wing, waterslides, S-duct, something new, etc.

I'll be stunned if this supposed 2.5 tenths upgrade in Baku, doesn't result in an obvious visual change to upper surfaces of the car.

Last year they just brought a new floor at Baku which seems about right for 2-3 tenths - I would guess it's going to be the same again. Then a final upgrade at silverstone/spa of floor/small bodywork changes worth another 2-3 tenths. And I'd guess that'll be it for the rb19..

They don't need to waste money on trying to extract big steps in performance out of the rb19. If the car isn't dominant by the end of the season that doesn't matter if Max is driving well and there is a decent points buffer by the summer break.

[Vanja #66]

I'll be stunned if this supposed 2.5 tenths upgrade in Baku, doesn't result in an obvious visual change to upper surfaces of the car.

From what I heard, it's floor edges and some other details. Mind you, these things could have a positive influence further down, so probably improve diffuser performance as well...

[vorticism]

Re: rumored Ferrari updates for Imola. If they were to f.e. move their lower side CS this would likely necessitate a new monocoque and crash tests, unless they designed their monocoque for multiple CS locations. Would new monocoque or crash tests be feasible in-season with cost caps?

As for AMR, since they have RB type sidepods, we might see them widen and shorten the intakes like RB has done. Can they buy a RBT rear suspension/gearbox?

[organic]

Re: rumored Ferrari updates for Imola. If they were to f.e. move their lower side CS this would likely necessitate a new monocoque and crash tests, unless they designed their monocoque for multiple CS locations. Would new monocoque or crash tests be feasible in-season with cost caps?

As for AMR, since they have RB type sidepods, we might see them widen and shorten the intakes like RB has done. Can they buy a RBT rear suspension/gearbox?

I think amr already had wider and narrower intakes than the early rb19. RB's inlet change brought them more in line with what amr have really