donskar wrote:
WB, many thanks for that (MotorSport) link.
I find it a bit scary:But Whitmarsh said at Silverstone that late July is the key date, and that until then FOTA is "open to finding a solution if we can".
"The teams are ready to discuss with anybody how we go racing next year," he said.
"I think by the end of July, everybody is going be progressively on diverging paths, so whatever separates us today will be greater by then," Whitmarsh added.
If that is an accurate quote, then it is very clear that FOTA has
not decided that they will definitely go ahead on their own.
I will sometimes play devil's advocate to spur a bit of discussion, but
not this time. I am just not as confident as most of you that FOTA has definitely "won."
I see this as a horror movie with Max playing the bad guy from the "Halloween" series -- he is
not dead yet and he will be
very hard to kill.
I will be overjoyed to be proven wrong.
I thought for a long time that FOTA will not pull this off. The weak link obviously would have been Brawn and the two manufacturers Mercedes and BMW who would have difficulties to get investment from their boards to take it solo from FIA/FOM.
They must have been given sufficient guarantees and have found enough trust emong each other to fight this out. Lets not forget that Brawn has an long relationship with both Briatore and Montezemolo. It is basically a repeat of FOCA vs FIA and the leverage this time is killing FOM/CVC economically. I have no doubt that the teams can make Bernie go bust. It is the weak spot of any leveraged scheme.
Bernie knows that he cannot win and so he is stepping away from everything that does not cost him anything shot term. Three days ago he said the cap must come. Now he says the cap should be abolished. Silverstone was African incompetence a week ago. Now he says he will run a GP there next year. So Bernie will comply with requests of the new FOTA power base until they go for what he thinks is his money and his decision power. My guess is, they will be doing that with a gusto asap.
For a last ditch agreement I see two conditions:
1. They somehow agree to let FOM/CVC fail and shift a lot of the banks dough to FOTA.
2. Max Mosley and Bernie Ecclestone agree to water tight conditions that will give a team majority veto to any controversial technical, sporting, financial, commercial and governance issue.
Both conditions are hard to meet for Max and Bernie. Would they be able to do such a thing? Probably not. The law suits will be run for longer than the season I fear and the break away will be well on its way before anything is decided there. I see only one big risk for FOTA. If they get investigated and accused of setting up an illegal cartell by the European authorities they would be in deep ---. But that kind of scenario is out of my legal crystal ball capabilities.