djos wrote:WhiteBlue wrote:It sounds like Max Mosley is surrendering. There isn't an awefull lot of alternatives for him with the FOTA getting serious about the break away. I wonder how FOTA will get on with Bernie. If Bernie gives them the kind of money they want and grant them a veto on deciding GPs they will probably be happy. I just don't see how FOM can avoid going bust over this.
Yeah, he now realises that FOTA is not messing about!
FIA drops legal actions against FOTA, Mosley ready to talk
I guess this is the final installment in a very sad and at times bewildering tussle. As they say "don't make threats you aren't prepared to carry out as one day someone will call your bluff". I think Max has painted himself into such a corner, insisting what everyone knows is garbage. F1 is more than Ferrari and F1 would survive if Ferrari leave etc,etc. Bernie knows that is crap and that is why the special monies and veto were given in the first place. The 2005/2006 split was only averted because Ferrari jumped and now we all know why.
It's clear that this issue has been primarily driven by Ferrari's this time round as they were incensed that their special power was not defferd to by Max. Now that Ferrari are the driving force it is much simpler for the others to fall in line behind. I guess they all know which way things will go even if a split happens so we can presume that there is a much tighter sense of solidarity (William and Force India aside.)
So I am saying it is the final installment for Max as I cannot see any possible future that leaves the 3 protagnists in the ring together. There are really only 2 possible outcombes;
FOTA split proceeds and there are 2 championships
or
FOTA agree to race in FIA WC
Now in either scenario I do not see that Max could survice. If there were a split, I think that there would be such a backlash against the current administration that an alternate president would be brave enough to stand and would therefore garner enough support to depose Max. After all I think the situation has been that Max has kept power by scaring everyone away from opposing him, rather than a real reflection of internal support. I think many member associations are just waiting for an opponent they think can win before crossing the floor as it were.
Personally I think FOTA continuing within F1, is the most probable outcome. This of course will be orchestrated in a deal to see Max out. After all if Ron can be shoved out of his own team by Max, then I am sure FOTA can make Max go if they are all determited too. That aside FOTA teams do need the FOM revenues to race and their sandwich is long way from making a picnic (meaning there is no gauranteed income stream from FOTA yet). I think is more likely that;
Max will go
FOTA sign up to 2012 on current income but with a set technical regs or at least an agreement on how they can be modified (i.e. not on FIA's whim)
In 2011 FOTA will tell Bernie increase our share of Revenue or we walk again. So the long game is to get controll of the governance and stop changes being made every 5 mins and once that is settle negotiate a better income share. I think Bernie knows a thing or too about negotiating and that is drive it a hard as you know it will take before breaking, but what every you do, don't break the golden goose.
So Max willl be gone, Bernie will still have fistfulls and I might be singing Ding dong the witch is dead (at least about old spanky!)