2023 Mercedes-AMG | Petronas F1 Team

[zibby43]

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George and Toto both said something today that I agree with: When they understand the development direction that they need to go in, Mercedes may be the best team on the grid at developing over the course of a season.

This is incredibly loaded and subjective is it not? Mercedes don't have unlimited budget anymore, and they don't have unlimited windtunnel hours either. They will have whatever allocation P2/P3 affords.

I think what’s a bit loaded is your assumption that Merc’s development success in the past was fueled only by resources.

Hmm.. I don't think that was said. Strawman..?

Their reputation as the team with huge in-season development was cultivated when they were routinely spending the most $ per year on the grid, up there with Ferrari over $400m. We haven't really what they can do under the budget cap

It stands to reason that at least some part of their development advantage pre-2021 was due to their larger spend, otherwise they would not have spent as much.. no?

[AR3-GP]

George and Toto both said something today that I agree with: When they understand the development direction that they need to go in, Mercedes may be the best team on the grid at developing over the course of a season.

This is incredibly loaded and subjective is it not? Mercedes don't have unlimited budget anymore, and they don't have unlimited windtunnel hours either. They will have whatever allocation P2/P3 affords.

Not loaded in my mind. They know more than anyone what they’re capable of. And they have a track record of success. They developed last year’s dog into a race-winning car. What they accomplished last year in bringing relatively untested in simulation hardware to the car was amazing. What they did in 2021 to maximize their package against RB was special. They out-developed Ferrari in 2017 and 2018 in years where Ferrari held the championship leads around/after the summer break. And in those years, Ferrari spent more money.

I think what’s a bit loaded is your assumption that Merc’s development success in the past was fueled only by resources.

I just think it's dodgy to suddenly think everything is rosy given how much Mercedes have struggled and lacked understanding. They are making a better fight of it right now, but that doesn't mean they have suddently developed RB's level of competence with these regs. That's just hubris talking.

[mkay]

This is incredibly loaded and subjective is it not? Mercedes don't have unlimited budget anymore, and they don't have unlimited windtunnel hours either. They will have whatever allocation P2/P3 affords.

Not loaded in my mind. They know more than anyone what they’re capable of. And they have a track record of success. They developed last year’s dog into a race-winning car. What they accomplished last year in bringing relatively untested in simulation hardware to the car was amazing. What they did in 2021 to maximize their package against RB was special. They out-developed Ferrari in 2017 and 2018 in years where Ferrari held the championship leads around/after the summer break. And in those years, Ferrari spent more money.

I think what’s a bit loaded is your assumption that Merc’s development success in the past was fueled only by resources.

I just think it's dodgy to suddenly think everything is rosy given how much Mercedes have struggled and lacked understanding. They are making a better fight of it right now, but that doesn't mean they have suddently developed RB's level of competence with these regs. That's just hubris talking.

Did the poster say that Merc suddenly develop RB’s level of competence?

Also, I don’t understand the point, you’re making with Red Bull having used harder compounds. Ultimately, both teams were on different strategy. RB was obviously the quicker car. We don’t know how hard each driver pushed during the race. While it’s safe to say Max didn’t push too hard for most of it, you could make the same argument for Hamilton once he cleared Sainz at the beginning of the second stint.

Similarly, we know Max wanted to go for FL but it’s unclear whether Hamilton pushed as hard throughout his lap. I went back and looked at his FL and compared it to other fast laps of his in the 1:17s, and 90% of the time gained was in Sector 1 thanks to the tow and DRS. So I wouldn’t read too much into the FL attempts.

Ultimately, Lewis lost roughly ~15 seconds to Max over a 40-odd lap distance meaning that Merc was probably in 0.4-0.5s/lap slower.

We will know more about the true extent of the gap over the next few race weekends.

[AR3-GP]

Not loaded in my mind. They know more than anyone what they’re capable of. And they have a track record of success. They developed last year’s dog into a race-winning car. What they accomplished last year in bringing relatively untested in simulation hardware to the car was amazing. What they did in 2021 to maximize their package against RB was special. They out-developed Ferrari in 2017 and 2018 in years where Ferrari held the championship leads around/after the summer break. And in those years, Ferrari spent more money.

I think what’s a bit loaded is your assumption that Merc’s development success in the past was fueled only by resources.

I just think it's dodgy to suddenly think everything is rosy given how much Mercedes have struggled and lacked understanding. They are making a better fight of it right now, but that doesn't mean they have suddently developed RB's level of competence with these regs. That's just hubris talking.

Ultimately, Lewis lost roughly ~15 seconds to Max over a 40-odd lap distance meaning that Merc was probably in 0.4-0.6s/lap slower.

We will know more about the true extent of the gap over the next few race weekends.

and for those 40 laps, RB was on a 1 step slower tire compound. Why is this not deemed important context?

As for your final point, I agree. Give it time. The backdrop is some who are potentially misinterpreting 1 event. It will take time to prove anything.

[AR3-GP]

Did the poster say that Merc suddenly develop RB’s level of competence?

It's implied when you say that now that Merc know what they are doing, they are going to outdevelop all other teams. That is what was said/implied by Zibby.

It would be more reasonable to argue that it would be because RB have less windtunnel hours, not just because "Mercedes is Mercedes" . Zibby and I have had a longstanding squabble over this

[mkay]

I just think it's dodgy to suddenly think everything is rosy given how much Mercedes have struggled and lacked understanding. They are making a better fight of it right now, but that doesn't mean they have suddently developed RB's level of competence with these regs. That's just hubris talking.

Ultimately, Lewis lost roughly ~15 seconds to Max over a 40-odd lap distance meaning that Merc was probably in 0.4-0.6s/lap slower.

and for those 40 laps, RB was on a 1 step slower tire compound. Why is this not deemed important context?

Read the rest of my post.

Besides, that is incorrect. They both pitted within 15 laps of the end to put softs on. Also, they overlapped on mediums for a few laps as well.

[AR3-GP]

Ultimately, Lewis lost roughly ~15 seconds to Max over a 40-odd lap distance meaning that Merc was probably in 0.4-0.6s/lap slower.

and for those 40 laps, RB was on a 1 step slower tire compound. Why is this not deemed important context?

Read the rest of my post.

Besides, that is incorrect. They both pitted within 15 laps of the end to put softs on. Also, they overlapped on mediums for a few laps as well.

The race was 66 laps long. I said 40 laps. There couldn't have been more than 5 laps total of overlap, it doesn't change the gist of my argument which was that RB was lapping on a fundamentally slower tire for majority of those first 40 laps because they went conservative with the tire choice while Merc went aggressive.

[AR3-GP]

Seem more intent on using anything you can to say, it is a second behind and has being no improvent and it is slow. .

Actually I think the gap in Spain was something like 7-8 tenths in race pace, and that the upgrade package brought a fundamental handling improvement. This is consistent with the projected qualifying gaps, and the DRS corrected fastest lap.

[zibby43]

This is incredibly loaded and subjective is it not? Mercedes don't have unlimited budget anymore, and they don't have unlimited windtunnel hours either. They will have whatever allocation P2/P3 affords.

I think what’s a bit loaded is your assumption that Merc’s development success in the past was fueled only by resources.

Hmm.. I don't think that was said. Strawman..?

Their reputation as the team with huge in-season development was cultivated when they were routinely spending the most $ per year on the grid, up there with Ferrari over $400m. We haven't really what they can do under the budget cap

It stands to reason that at least some part of their development advantage pre-2021 was due to their larger spend, otherwise they would not have spent as much.. no?

I don’t think it’s a question that is what was implied. Why else frame it that way? It’s discounting their talent and efficiency.

Ferrari was spending the same if not more.

Do you think Merc’s current struggles are due to spending restrictions?

The only impact the restrictions have now are how fast you can recover. Not on competence. Sure, there is less redundancy in talent, but teams can “accountant” that problem away.

[mendis]

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Mercedes won last year in Brazil, not only because RB had stopped development, but also because RB got the setup wrong and chewed the tyres like in Austria. Nevertheless it was strong showing by George to win both Sprint and Race! RB then bounced back in Abu Dhabi to prove that point.

There is always a reference to where a team stood 12 months back to gauge the progress. W13 also did well in Spain last year like W14. George finished on podium last year too. Although the performance gap is bigger, currently, the result is similar. So nothing wrong in using last year's yardstick to measure current progress.

With Ferrari deep in trouble this year, there is every chance that both or one of the Mercedes can be on podium depending on how Perez and Alonso's AM performs.

[JordanMugen]

Do you think Merc’s current struggles are due to spending restrictions?

There was no cap on engine personnel costs at the time so losing engine staff to Red Bull Powertrains was probably not due to the cap. (These loss of experienced personnel likely partly responsible for the 2022 power unit's relatively lower advantage or slight deficit than previously. Of course, that is partly on Petronas for doing a poor job compared to ExxonMobil, BP or Shell on E10 fuel too which is nothing directly to do with those two operations - Mercedes HPP or Ford RBPT.)

However both Mercedes and Red Bull losing staff to other Silverstone-area teams is certainly an issue created by the budget cap.

More than Merc they are terrified of Hamilton smacking their golden boy if and when it happens. Deep down they know once Merc is sorted and on par with RB what is going to happen.

Reasonable Formula 1 fans are more than aware that Verstappen, Russell, Hamilton, Leclerc (and maybe still Alonso and Norris) are all at a similar level. The championship outcome(s) were these Tier 1 drivers to be paired in the same car is likely to be decided by luck and circumstance (e.g., Prost and Senna with one WDC each, Hamilton and Alonso tied on points).

Formula 1 is an engineering competition. The team's chosen drivers are just the final component to get the job done. Mercedes are certainly at an advantage as the only team with two tier 1 drivers, their current driver lineup is excellent.

[DGP123]

Tier 1 is Max & Lewis. That’s it. Throwing £40m at Lewis is evidence of that. Can already see that given a better car, Lewis looks rejuvenated, and motivated again. Russell is good, and it’s the best driver pairing out there, but he doesn’t have the race pace/management of Lewis, and the team know it.

[Big Tea]

Tier 1 is Max & Lewis. That’s it. Throwing £40m at Lewis is evidence of that. Can already see that given a better car, Lewis looks rejuvenated, and motivated again. Russell is good, and it’s the best driver pairing out there, but he doesn’t have the race pace/management of Lewis, and the team know it.

How do you chose between Lewis and Newey? I know some are excluded from the cap, but it is still cost to the team.
It is not all in one area such as one driver or one designer, if bits fall of the car it is not going to win much, bur we di not often here of other engineers who do the donkey work.
It needs a full and complementary team (except at Ferrari apparently lol)

[ValeVida46]

As for the performance. I expect ebbs and flows. Anyone thinking that Merc are going to bury Aston to the tune of 35 seconds every weekend from here on out is getting way ahead of themselves. AMR clearly underperformed at the same time that Merc had one of it's strongest outings on a track that suits them, and not Aston.

The track is a mix of corners and demands that reflect well at most the other tracks on the calendar(non street tracks).
Said before and I'll say it again, there's a reason it's a traditional test track.
What is clear is that the upgrade worked and gave Mercedes a clear step ahead of both Aston and Ferrari who both came with upgrades themselves.

Also, there is a preconceived bias that you assume the AMR23 isn't suited to the Catalunya track whereas the W14 is.
Given the demands on the car will be reflected at other race tracks this year, does this mean the AMR wont be suited to other forthcoming race tracks when it comes to gauging the effectiveness of Mercedes upgrade?
The reason I say this is because certain judgments were made in Monaco, a track that does not give constructive upgrade feedback(citations from Newey, Costa, Steiner, Vassuer, Ham, etc if required), but the moment it works for Mercedes it's because AMR "clearly underperformed"

Also, I don't believe anyone expects Mercedes to be beating Aston to the tune of 35 seconds every weekend.
The framing of that statement is a goalpost moving exercise, especially in view of the comments made about the upgrades in Monaco.