2023 Mercedes-AMG | Petronas F1 Team

[ringo]

And don't pin your hopes on 2026, that's going to be ground effect too.

That’s it, then. Think the plan is:

WDC in 23’,24’,25’,26’,27’ & 28’. Max’ contract expires at the end of that year, with him as 8 time WDC. Retire.

Yes for some reason the FIA were not comfortable with LH being the GOAT. So they kind of overdid it with ensuring redbull and max stop that from happening. 2021 was obviously where the disruption started with the new floor rules to stop mercedes. We all know ther other stuff that happened. Then the tech regulations that we have now and the increase in races per season. The cost cap then protects the advantage. It almost guarantees Max has 8 championships and 100 wins unchallenged.
The sport will be damaged but i think mission accomplished. No Hamilton as the face of Formula 1.

If by some magic Mercedes or even Ferrari can overturn these events, it would be really something special but i dont see it happening.

Newey and his team are in an unassailable lead.

[214270]

I didn’t read much about it on hear but Wolff told a junior presenter on Sky Germany that HAMs extension was for 2yrs.

I think HAM was gunning for something more, no? There isn’t a Merc prospect in the junior ranks that could possibly slot in so maybe the plan is RUS at the helm and he finds someone from the current crop to slot in to partner? Or is another contract on the cards after the extension? It kinda seems like this is the final one.

[ringo]

Lewis may continue. I think this year is a big boost for him despite not winning so far.
He is still quick enough to be beating a prodigy like Russel. So rather than say losing to russel 2 years in a row and clearly being outclassed and subsequently considering to leave to prevent reputational damage, Lewis may just continue racing one year at a time like Kimi and stop when he sees the decline.
I don't see him becoming champion again however. As much as I am a fan. And it's not because of abity or skills waning. It's because of these current regs and the cars he will have to drive from mercedes.
He only gets another championship by going to redbull and beating Max in his own team and Horner and Marko wont allow that.

[Farnborough]

And don't pin your hopes on 2026, that's going to be ground effect too.

That’s it, then. Think the plan is:

WDC in 23’,24’,25’,26’,27’ & 28’. Max’ contract expires at the end of that year, with him as 8 time WDC. Retire.

Yes for some reason the FIA were not comfortable with LH being the GOAT. So they kind of overdid it with ensuring redbull and max stop that from happening. 2021 was obviously where the disruption started with the new floor rules to stop mercedes. We all know ther other stuff that happened. Then the tech regulations that we have now and the increase in races per season. The cost cap then protects the advantage. It almost guarantees Max has 8 championships and 100 wins unchallenged.
The sport will be damaged but i think mission accomplished. No Hamilton as the face of Formula 1.

If by some magic Mercedes or even Ferrari can overturn these events, it would be really something special but i dont see it happening.

Newey and his team are in an unassailable lead.

The regs were changed to prevent chassis and load development outstripping tyre specification of the last 13 Inch iteration. They were not planned to be used that year (swap to 18 was supposed to happen) with no real option or time by Pirelli re engineer them. Containing load peak was the only sensible option available, and the same for all competitors to work with.

There is no conspiracy in this decision. Also nobody in a tyre company with good grasp of reality would accept liability in the face of potential failure, that's to competitors or their own company reputation.

[ValeVida46]

2014-2016 was easily as dominant. Hell, they would've won every race in 2016 by a mile if not for first lap tangles.

And don't pin your hopes on 2026, that's going to be ground effect too.

But then Rosberg and Hamilton were at least providing a show for that dominance, which is clearly not the case for the processions we are seeing today.

Not just that. Those mercedes cars had glaring weakenesses. Any given day they could have reliability issues or chronic tyre deg and tyre temp issues sometimes fric suspension tuning issues with some tracks. Those monstrous cars had achilles heels. The rb19 does not. It's perfect and will not break down.

Absolutely. Can't deny there was domination of those days, but we had a show of 2 parties racing for wins.
2016 being cited as a boring season is a subconscious show of bias.
At the very least we had 2 top driver's at each others throats for a large part of that season.
Reliability also played a key role in that season too, as you say.
I can't help feel that if Mercedes were up there in the mix for race wins we'd see the same again with Russell and Hamilton. That simply is not happening now, and it's a shame(for me at least).

[AR3-GP]

He only gets another championship by going to redbull and beating Max in his own team and Horner and Marko wont allow that.

Hamilton says he will not leave Mercedes:

“I love that we have the long partnership we have. I feel like we are embarking on a lot of really positive things, not only in the sport but outside,” Hamilton continued.

“And I think there’s a lot of work to accomplish together. So I want to be a part of that, I think I’ll always be with Mercedes, until the day I die. And I feel like I can race for quite a bit longer so I’ll be potentially steering towards that.”

https://www.autoblog.com/2022/09/09/lew ... day-i-die/

This is the first barrier, before we worry about whether another team will take him.

Instead of denying rumors and calling us quacks for suggesting it, I would like for Hamilton to make a public offer/ request to join Red Bull. Then we can have it out in the open.

[AMG.Tzan]

There's no equally dominant car previously, rb19 is by far and away the most dominant car of all time. To suggest there's nothing stopping mercedes when there's a whole budget cap preventing them from fixing their car is laughable. The teams are exhausting their resources trying to catch up to redbull and they still can't get close, redbull bring their first big update of the season to hungary and they leave everyone in the dust with their biggest win of the season, this cycle will contiue until 2026.

The qualifying apart from redbull is close, there's no way Lewis should have got pole on saturday against the mighty rb19, that was down to poor performance from Max he should have qualified at least 3 tenths ahead according to the pundits.

2014-2016 was easily as dominant. Hell, they would've won every race in 2016 by a mile if not for first lap tangles.

And don't pin your hopes on 2026, that's going to be ground effect too.

I've seen so many people talk about Mercedes domination and that "it's Red Bull's time now" and it's all ok...

I'm not gonna talk in detail again about Mercedes always having or producing some kind of competition themselves (Ferrari 2017-2019, Red Bull 2020-2021 and Rosberg 2014-2016)

So on our topic, first of all you can't compare pre-budget cap era domination to now simply because teams were able to spend way too much and just get ahead of everyone with some clever engineers onboard! Ferrari did it (2000-2004), Red Bull did it (2010-2013) and then Mercedes did it (2014-2020)!

The budget cap was put in place mostly to stop these dominations from happening all the time one after the other! There's no other reason to use a budget cap and a sliding scale development if you are not going to stop dominations! That's why a lot of people are complaining now...because back in the day a team could just pour in the money and get competitive (like Ferrari in 2017-2019)!

Right now there's none of that! Not even engine development to at least gain something there! So we've ended up with a team miles ahead (through overspending in 2021 and cleverly gaining ground effect knowledge through the RB17 road car and thus avoiding problems like porpoising) and 9 teams unable to catch simply because they can't overspend their rival

To add to that, because people will say it's Newey doing the magic, because "Newey designed ground effect Indycars back in the 1908s" is wide off the mark! These ground effect floors of today have absolutely nothing to do with the way Indycars' spec ground effect floors worked back then...! Newey is of course the greatest designer around but still don't forget that he too wasn't that great during 2000-2009 and 2014-2021! It's a team effort...not a one-man effort!

[AR3-GP]

To add to that, because people will say it's Newey doing the magic, because "Newey designed ground effect Indycars back in the 1908s" is wide off the mark! These ground effect floors of today have absolutely nothing to do with the way Indycars' spec ground effect floors worked back then...! Newey is of course the greatest designer around but still don't forget that he too wasn't that great during 2000-2009 and 2014-2021! It's a team effort...not a one-man effort!

There are many misconceptions here.

[AMG.Tzan]

To add to that, because people will say it's Newey doing the magic, because "Newey designed ground effect Indycars back in the 1908s" is wide off the mark! These ground effect floors of today have absolutely nothing to do with the way Indycars' spec ground effect floors worked back then...! Newey is of course the greatest designer around but still don't forget that he too wasn't that great during 2000-2009 and 2014-2021! It's a team effort...not a one-man effort!

There are many misconceptions here.

Definitely! You can always elaborate though.

[Hammerfist]

Lewis may continue. I think this year is a big boost for him despite not winning so far.
He is still quick enough to be beating a prodigy like Russel. So rather than say losing to russel 2 years in a row and clearly being outclassed and subsequently considering to leave to prevent reputational damage, Lewis may just continue racing one year at a time like Kimi and stop when he sees the decline.
I don't see him becoming champion again however. As much as I am a fan. And it's not because of abity or skills waning. It's because of these current regs and the cars he will have to drive from mercedes.
He only gets another championship by going to redbull and beating Max in his own team and Horner and Marko wont allow that.

It would be hard to imagine him winning another one now I agree but it is not impossible. Even if winning the 8th is not going to happen all I can hope for is for him and the team to make life more difficult for Max. Make the guy earn it at least. But it's not only the car that needs to improve; operations need to make a step up as well.

[Cs98]

I've seen so many people talk about Mercedes domination and that "it's Red Bull's time now" and it's all ok...

I'm not gonna talk in detail again about Mercedes always having or producing some kind of competition themselves (Ferrari 2017-2019, Red Bull 2020-2021 and Rosberg 2014-2016)

So on our topic, first of all you can't compare pre-budget cap era domination to now simply because teams were able to spend way too much and just get ahead of everyone with some clever engineers onboard! Ferrari did it (2000-2004), Red Bull did it (2010-2013) and then Mercedes did it (2014-2020)!

The budget cap was put in place mostly to stop these dominations from happening all the time one after the other! There's no other reason to use a budget cap and a sliding scale development if you are not going to stop dominations! That's why a lot of people are complaining now...because back in the day a team could just pour in the money and get competitive (like Ferrari in 2017-2019)!

Right now there's none of that! Not even engine development to at least gain something there! So we've ended up with a team miles ahead (through overspending in 2021 and cleverly gaining ground effect knowledge through the RB17 road car and thus avoiding problems like porpoising) and 9 teams unable to catch simply because they can't overspend their rival

To add to that, because people will say it's Newey doing the magic, because "Newey designed ground effect Indycars back in the 1908s" is wide off the mark! These ground effect floors of today have absolutely nothing to do with the way Indycars' spec ground effect floors worked back then...! Newey is of course the greatest designer around but still don't forget that he too wasn't that great during 2000-2009 and 2014-2021! It's a team effort...not a one-man effort!

The usual tropes.

The budget cap was put in place mostly to stop these dominations from happening all the time one after the other! There's no other reason to use a budget cap and a sliding scale development if you are not going to stop dominations!

There's no provision in the CC that says "domination is forbidden". It's not a guarantee of equal performance. It simply takes one variable, spending, and levels it out. It's then up to the teams to figure out how to spend their resources efficiently. For example, you might want to avoid spending 15 months developing the car in the wrong direction. In fact, one might say it's normal to be significantly behind if you do something like that.

[AR3-GP]

There's no provision in the CC that says "domination is forbidden". It's not a guarantee of equal performance. It simply takes one variable, spending, and levels it out. It's then up to the teams to figure out how to spend their resources efficiently. For example, you might want to avoid spending 15 months developing the car in the wrong direction. In fact, one might say it's normal to be significantly behind if you do something like that.

This is something the budget cap could never prevent. It's worth noting that despite Hamilton and Toto being clearly unhappy with this car, they have been running as 2nd or 3rd best.

Why is that notable? Think about if Mercedes had not gotten sucked down the blind alley that was the zero pod. We might actually be watching a championship battle this year or almost certainly next year. But as you say, they invested far too much time in the wrong ideas. 2nd isn't what is discouraging. It's the gap to RB that they are making no inroads into which is the issue and given Hamilton's finger pointing at the upgrades of other cars, it makes you wonder what they are still doing now.

If the 2 year contract rumors are true, I wonder if that's not Hamilton drawing a line under the team's current form. I expected longer. I'd easily expect him to sign 3 more years.

[denyall]

I've seen so many people talk about Mercedes domination and that "it's Red Bull's time now" and it's all ok...

I'm not gonna talk in detail again about Mercedes always having or producing some kind of competition themselves (Ferrari 2017-2019, Red Bull 2020-2021 and Rosberg 2014-2016)

So on our topic, first of all you can't compare pre-budget cap era domination to now simply because teams were able to spend way too much and just get ahead of everyone with some clever engineers onboard! Ferrari did it (2000-2004), Red Bull did it (2010-2013) and then Mercedes did it (2014-2020)!

The budget cap was put in place mostly to stop these dominations from happening all the time one after the other! There's no other reason to use a budget cap and a sliding scale development if you are not going to stop dominations! That's why a lot of people are complaining now...because back in the day a team could just pour in the money and get competitive (like Ferrari in 2017-2019)!

Right now there's none of that! Not even engine development to at least gain something there! So we've ended up with a team miles ahead (through overspending in 2021 and cleverly gaining ground effect knowledge through the RB17 road car and thus avoiding problems like porpoising) and 9 teams unable to catch simply because they can't overspend their rival

To add to that, because people will say it's Newey doing the magic, because "Newey designed ground effect Indycars back in the 1908s" is wide off the mark! These ground effect floors of today have absolutely nothing to do with the way Indycars' spec ground effect floors worked back then...! Newey is of course the greatest designer around but still don't forget that he too wasn't that great during 2000-2009 and 2014-2021! It's a team effort...not a one-man effort!

The usual tropes.

The budget cap was put in place mostly to stop these dominations from happening all the time one after the other! There's no other reason to use a budget cap and a sliding scale development if you are not going to stop dominations!

There's no provision in the CC that says "domination is forbidden". It's not a guarantee of equal performance. It simply takes one variable, spending, and levels it out. It's then up to the teams to figure out how to spend their resources efficiently. For example, you might want to avoid spending 15 months developing the car in the wrong direction. In fact, one might say it's normal to be significantly behind if you do something like that.

The main brief of CC and 22' regs was closer racing. Pretending that one team dominance meets that brief is asinine.

Sliding scale development works if teams are relatively close in pace. It cannot and will not level a field that one team has a 1 second advantage over. Sliding scale dev is working for F1.5 as we see McLaren and AMR convergence with Merc and Ferrari.

The CC also prevents wild ideas and development. The punishment for getting it wrong is multiple years out of contention.

[dans79]

I Honestly hate the cost cap, I said as much several times before it ever went into effect. Racing has always been a rich person sport, if you don't like it to bad.

[TimW]

The CC does does however not suddenly cancel out the advantage in knowledge and tools that have been built over the years, and that the big teams still benefit from. At the moment there is some rapid redistribution because of personnel moving(because they big teams cannot afford them anymore under the CC), but some of the advantage will take many years to dissipate.