2024 pecking order predictions

[haza]

Early but the seasons finished so let’s go bear in my mind my predictions for last season were spot on (McLaren mid season jump Aston strong out the gate)

2024 F1 predictions (wrote 25th November 2023 after Abu Dhabi quali)

Constructors:

McLaren
Redbull
Mercedes
Ferrari
Alpha tauri
Aston Martin
Williams
Alpine
Haas
Sauber

Drivers (top 10)

Norris
Verstappen
Hamilton
Piastri
Perez
Leclerc
Russel
Sainz
Alonso
Ricciardo


Redbull and McLaren very evenly matched at the start of the season on pace with it come down to driver skill making the difference. McLaren out-develop redbull and build a gap later in the year (more wind tunnel and prize money)

Mercedes bring a whole new concept not as quick as McLaren or redbull at the start of the year but in the right conditions can challenge them. By end of the year they’ve understood their car an they are challenging red bull for second place in the constructors only missing out by a handful of points

Alpha tauri (or whatever they decide to be called) will continue to take as much as they can from redbull this will give them a handy race craft to challenge the likes of Ferrari on the right day

Ferrari has a decent enough race car at the beginning of the season but leclerc and sainz will come to blows on multiple occasions costing the team valuable points in the constructors

Aston Martin will struggle at the beginning of the season only scoring a few points. A mid season upgrade helps them score regular points but not enough to catch alpha tauri

[mendis]

2024 Bahrain GP

Red Bull
Ferrari (quali + 0.5; race +1.5)
Aston (quali + 0.6; race +1.7)
McLaren (quali + 0.6; race +1.7)
Mercedes (quali + 0.9; race +2.0)

[r85]

I expect Mercedes and Ferrari to bring the race pace gap down to 0.2 -0.3s over the winter break with their concept changes.

[SirBastianVettel]

I expect Mercedes and Ferrari to bring the race pace gap down to 0.2 -0.3s over the winter break with their concept changes.

I don't have much faith in Mercedes closing the gap, to me it seems they still don't have a good grasp of these ground-effect cars. I do think that the new Ferrari will be unprecedented in terms of speed and will be Red Bull's closest rival next season.

[r85]

I expect Mercedes and Ferrari to bring the race pace gap down to 0.2 -0.3s over the winter break with their concept changes.

I don't have much faith in Mercedes closing the gap, to me it seems they still don't have a good grasp of these ground-effect cars. I do think that the new Ferrari will be unprecedented in terms of speed and will be Red Bull's closest rival next season.

W14 was an evolution of the messy W13 concept until it turned into a lab rat for the W15 concept, and they seem happy with the development so far. I won't be surprised if Ferrari actually challenges RB for wins from the start, they're only a few fixes away from that.

[proteus]

I dont think much will change in 2024.

RedBull first, Ferrari and Mercedes fighting for second. For Mclaren, i think it will be again a hit/miss season for them with some tracks on the podium on others being nowhere. Aston is a mystery, they might be much better trough the season with their new facilities up and running - Stroll being their main weakness.

Alpine is next in no mans land, firmly in the middle with average results trough the year. Racing Bulls will get a boost due to RedBull parts. Williams are going to take another step upwards, they are starting to get some sponsors on their car and money into facilities. Sauber will be pretty much where they are today and Haas is kind of a lost cause at this point.

[organic]

It's been a long time since RB were bringing performance to their car and every update has always seemed to work for them. No reason why they wouldn't keep making good progress.

McLaren and AMR developed a lot more than others in '23. Expecting Merc and Ferrari to make larger gains than them

Don't really expect the WCC order to change much. Wdc will have Perez shuffled down with RB having a smaller advantage than this year

[haza]

I’d put McLarens chances as good as any they’ve been developing the 24 car since June July I’m pretty sure the upgrades brought in Singapore Austria were already planned upgrades meant to be on the car from the get go

[Matt2725]

I expect Mercedes and Ferrari to bring the race pace gap down to 0.2 -0.3s over the winter break with their concept changes.

I don't have much faith in Mercedes closing the gap, to me it seems they still don't have a good grasp of these ground-effect cars. I do think that the new Ferrari will be unprecedented in terms of speed and will be Red Bull's closest rival next season.

Funny. I have a lot more faith in Mercedes closing the gap than Ferrari but we'll see.

[selvam_e2002]

AMR would be surprise contender for next year WDC.

[Sevach]

Red Bull and Verstappen will be the combo to beat.
I have some hope that Ferrari will present something of a threat, they showed solid progress, and they still have so much they'll finally be able to change in their car now that the original concept can be "tossed in trash".
Not optimistic about Aston's chances, they made a solid "RB18 inspired" car but failed to improve it.
Mclaren is now in the situation that Aston was in early 23, will they do a better a job, maybe but i can't be sure the final couple of tenths are always the hardest.
I have no clue what Mercedes is up too... Hamilton just said the team is under huge pressure to deliver, and i agree, they had bad cars 2 years in a row, and unlike former championship teams that suddenly found themselves in the backfoot they have very little in terms of excuses (Red Bull after Vettel had Renault to blame, Mclaren had Honda, Ferrari... well Ferrari just gets rid of the team principal), they need to show they know what they are doing and that they won't be empty promises one after the other.

[collindsilva]

AMR would be surprise contender for next year WDC.

Not for WDC, however, maybe 2nd or 3rd.
Seems they used last 4 to 5 races to test the 2024 parts...

[Vanja #66]

RB and Max are the team to beat and will remain favourites all season, until they are mathematically beaten - if that happens.

Mercedes will introduce a whole new car, which will inevitably give them lots of headaches in the first 5-10 races. I was disappointed by their start of the 23 season, I expected a lot better pace from them. Same can be said for the year-end, they didn't seem to be able to hit the ground running in a number of late-season events and this tells me they don't fully understand their car. How well will they understand the 24 car then?

Ferrari have some low-hanging fruit to pick up with chassis and sidepod changes, albeit those are small gains. They will change some important aspects of the car, but not everything like Mercedes is announcing. With late-season charge and Japan floor upgrade working very well, it seems they understand their car a lot more than early in the season, which was abysmal for their standards.

McLaren also have some low-hanging fruit to pick up with drag reduction and slightly better low-speed behaviour. Ferrari have shown drag can be improved between seasons, so this shouldn't be a problem for McLaren. They will most likely be the 2nd best team early in the season, since both Mercedes and Ferrari will have to deal with new-car teething issues. It will be interesting to see if McLaren can make another big step, like they did in 2023. I don't expect this, their car is much better than launch car in 23.

AMR have put a lot of effort to improve in late 23 and they didn't do it. This can only mean they learned a lot of ways that don't really work, so they will be trying different things with 24 car. They might be better in the 2nd half next year, as it looks they will also make fairly big and fundamental changes to their 24 car.

Alpine seem to keep losing their way with everything and they may just lose the P6 to Williams next year.

Williams is on a good path right now and I expect them to improve more in 2024, as I do from Sargeant.

ATR, Sauber and Haas will most likely keep the backmarker positions. ATR is going through big changes and this is always reflected on track. Sauber is getting prepared for big changes, which is always felt on track. Haas may have a shot at P8 next year, if they do a much better job with their 24 car.

[chrisc90]

Red Bull


Mclaren
Ferrari
Mercedes
Alpha Tauri
AMR
Alpine
Williams
Haas
Alfa Romeo

[organic]

Red Bull


Mclaren
Ferrari
Mercedes
Alpha Tauri
AMR
Alpine
Williams
Haas
Alfa Romeo

Hang on, that's just the same order as the end of 2023