2023 Mercedes-AMG | Petronas F1 Team

[ValeVida46]

I don't think it's contentious to think Mercedes can only go up from here.

That framing sets up further criticisms if there is any stumbling blocks ahead. And there will be.
Merc have a load of potential, that much is clear. Taking a pretty much cut-and-shut idea to 2nd in the championship typifies that. But it won't be a straight-line linear process. It takes time and the nous to achieve.
After all it took Red Bull many years to stop complaining and taking steps for something as blatantly obvious as the engine. With multiple quite threats in year 1, 2 and 3 of the hybrid era.

[Bill_Kar]

I don't think it's contentious to think Mercedes can only go up from here.

I guess we have to define here what is "current state" to discuss about going up.

This year, there were races where Mercedes was pretty much 2nd ( Spain, Singapore, Texas, Mexico), sometimes they were 4-5th ( Bahrain, Azerbaijan, Austria, Brazil), but mostly 3rd /3rd-ish.

Also, there wasn't any kind of linear progression, either backwards or forwards. Ferrari & McLaren certainly upped their game as season progressed, whereas AM regressed.

But, it's fair to say that there is a good chance that this trends continues, hence Mercedes will have to face Ferrari and McLaren being strong from March. That is my baseline scenario at least, until proven otherwise.

With that in mind, and the fact that there is a concept change for Mercedes, IMO the first target for 2024 is to bring a car that can compete (not necessarily beat) against these two teams, right from the start. Not in Spain or Canada (where the first-second round of upgrades usually come into play), but in Bahrain. Then, Mercedes can aim to claim that 2nd place through assimilating this new concept and prove it through the upgrades.

The next bit is crucial, I think. When the summer break is over, if they have claimed that 2nd spot and reduce the relative gap to RB significantly, then OK. If not, surely there will be voices calling for aiming for 2026.

[Henri]

Hope we can get back to our best in car development.. and challenge redbull next season

[Elite]

I don't think it's contentious to think Mercedes can only go up from here.

I guess we have to define here what is "current state" to discuss about going up.

This year, there were races where Mercedes was pretty much 2nd ( Spain, Singapore, Mexico), sometimes they were 4-5th ( Bahrain, Azerbaijan, Austria, Brazil), but mostly 3rd /3rd-ish.

Also, there wasn't any kind of linear progression, either backwards or forwards. Ferrari & McLaren certainly upped their game as season progressed, whereas AM regressed.

But, it's fair to say that there is a good chance that this trends continues, hence Mercedes will have to face Ferrari and McLaren being strong from March. That is my baseline scenario at least, until proven otherwise.

With that in mind, and the fact that there is a concept change for Mercedes, IMO the first target for 2024 is to bring a car that can compete (not necessarily beat) against these two teams, right from the start. Not in Spain or Canada (where the first-second round of upgrades usually come into play), but in Bahrain. Then, Mercedes can aim to claim that 2nd place through assimilating this new concept and prove it through the upgrades.

The next bit is crucial, I think. When the summer break is over, if they have claimed that 2nd spot and reduce the relative gap to RB significantly, then OK. If not, surely there will be voices calling for aiming for 2026.

I fully agree. In Bahrain they just need to at least be 2-4th fastest before refining their concept and closing the gap to the leader. Best case the concept is golden and closes in on the leader faster. Worst case we start looking at 2026.

[CMC]

The season had plenty of disappointing moments, to be sure. But P2 in the Constructors' without a win - officially the last time was 2007 but only due to McLaren's Spygate exclusion. Prior to that, 2004 when MSC dominated in the F2004. AFAIK, those are the only times this has occurred. It says more about the dominance of Max and the RB19, but it is interesting nonetheless.

[Henri]

Average driver race pace this season.. Lewis did good with the car he had.. we need the w15 to be good

[Luscion]

Two part interview with Allison from a day ago.Talks about how the odds are against them but theyve set an ambitious target and have made a lot of progress with the W15 (19:46 in part 2)

[Sieper]

Average driver race pace this season.. Lewis did good with the car he had.. we need the w15 to be good

Almost 2 tenths faster than George who I consider to be very good too (not as good as he himself thinks )haha, but ok, good to have confidence. That is quite impressive. I could see that Lewis was trying to optimize the results this year. I never really liked that about his driving (patiently waiting behind someone he could also pass) but still, even when doing that he is this much faster than George.

Do you also have these numbers from last year? Would be really interesting to see.

[organic]

https://twitter.com/fiagirly/status/1731745296168669194
Average driver race pace this season.. Lewis did good with the car he had.. we need the w15 to be good

Almost 2 tenths faster than George who I consider to be very good too (not as good as he himself thinks )haha, but ok, good to have confidence. That is quite impressive. I could see that Lewis was trying to optimize the results this year. I never really liked that about his driving (patiently waiting behind someone he could also pass) but still, even when doing that he is this much faster than George.

Do you also have these numbers from last year? Would be really interesting to see.

This is the sort of gap I expected between Lewis and George before he came to Merc.. Lewis is an all-time top driver whereas George is a very talented but still undoubtedly raw. In 2022, with a car that George seemed fairly content with and one that Lewis didn't like it was still obvious that Lewis was faster (and in qualifying across the season the two of them were equal). With a car that Lewis was a bit happier with - the W14 - and one that Russell didn't love (though neither did Ham) the gap between them grew. With a car with a strong rear end that Lewis can trust which is sort of essential for his style I expect the gap between them to maybe be even more than 2 tenths

Here's 2022 - this analysis takes out any results wherein one driver was compromised by something like a failed DRS mechanism but includes any deficit induced by a driver error (for instance track limits) and takes the delta from the last quali session in which both drivers recorded a laptime





They haven't shown their 2023 season analysis yet

[Sieper]

Thanks, yes, that seems like the most fair way to compare data. They will surely have the 23 data up over the next month then. For George imho it is quite “good luck” that Mercedes is not fighting for the world title in his first seasons there. Now the scrutiny he is under is much less and that will allow him the years needed to polish the talent he undoubtedly has. But for now, Lewis increased the average pace gap over this year.

[Henri]

https://twitter.com/fiagirly/status/1731745296168669194
Average driver race pace this season.. Lewis did good with the car he had.. we need the w15 to be good

Almost 2 tenths faster than George who I consider to be very good too (not as good as he himself thinks )haha, but ok, good to have confidence. That is quite impressive. I could see that Lewis was trying to optimize the results this year. I never really liked that about his driving (patiently waiting behind someone he could also pass) but still, even when doing that he is this much faster than George.

Do you also have these numbers from last year? Would be really interesting to see.

This is the sort of gap I expected between Lewis and George before he came to Merc.. Lewis is an all-time top driver whereas George is a very talented but still undoubtedly raw. In 2022, with a car that George seemed fairly content with and one that Lewis didn't like it was still obvious that Lewis was faster (and in qualifying across the season the two of them were equal). With a car that Lewis was a bit happier with - the W14 - and one that Russell didn't love (though neither did Ham) the gap between them grew. With a car with a strong rear end that Lewis can trust which is sort of essential for his style I expect the gap between them to maybe be even more than 2 tenths

Here's 2022 - this analysis takes out any results wherein one driver was compromised by something like a failed DRS mechanism but includes any deficit induced by a driver error (for instance track limits) and takes the delta from the last quali session in which both drivers recorded a laptime

https://preview.redd.it/43raed0cv9ca1.p ... e35af8a74d

https://preview.redd.it/0tnishfcv9ca1.p ... bd2fbf2e1c

They haven't shown their 2023 season analysis yet

George really had a good season with the w13.. he was close to matching a near 40 year old Lewis

[Henri]

Thanks, yes, that seems like the most fair way to compare data. They will surely have the 23 data up over the next month then. For George imho it is quite “good luck” that Mercedes is not fighting for the world title in his first seasons there. Now the scrutiny he is under is much less and that will allow him the years needed to polish the talent he undoubtedly has. But for now, Lewis increased the average pace gap over this year.

George did have good luck but still performed well against Lewis.. george is fast but not rosberg level.. rosberg was a beast in qualifying

[RonMexico]

Call it now, will Russell be retained post 2025?

[skoop]

Call it now, will Russell be retained post 2025?

Yes, they'll support Lewis in pursuing title number 8 and when he retires, George will become team leader.

[djones]

Helping Lewis do that is what they should do (back the best driver). It is what Redbull do every weekend for example.

But it's Mercedes. They will likely try and make it 'fair' and in doing so will not win against a team that is doing the above.

I agree with Redbull by the way - I'm not saying it as a negative thing towards them. If you want to win then that is what you do.