Post here all non technical related topics about Formula One. This includes race results, discussions, testing analysis etc. TV coverage and other personal questions should be in Off topic chat.
Mclaren
Ferrari
Mercedes
Alpha Tauri
AMR
Alpine
Williams
Haas
Alfa Romeo
Hang on, that's just the same order as the end of 2023
Likely to continue really. I dont think Merc will be as competitive as they/some are making out. Its a bold task to 'full remake' their car and expect to be on the same performance page as others.
I think McLaren will be the ones to watch, IF they can sort out some of their race pace and deg problems.
Verstappen/RB are still going to be the ones to comfortably beat. I dare bet RB could just continue to use the RB19 and still have plenty left if the others had moved closer. The race pace on that car is just sublime. We've all heard the radio messages between GP/Max that its just a case of managing the tyre without worrying about pushing. Any niggles/issues they can dial out on track to help the balance with cornering etc. Their 'tools' seem very very good.
One lap pace - I still think they will be beaten at a good handful of tracks. But its a marathon, not a sprint and your points are scored on Sundays.
If Ferrari manage to solve their tyre wear issues, they are going to challenge for wins. Leclerc had better deg than Verstappen in Vegas on the mediums and almost matching him in Abu Dhabi. I do not see Merc challenging RB next year. McLaren seem to be in a better position than them. I think the order will be RB, Ferrari/McLaren (really close), Merc, Aston, AT, Alpine, Williams, Alfa, Haas.
If Ferrari manage to solve their tyre wear issues, they are going to challenge for wins. Leclerc had better deg than Verstappen in Vegas on the mediums and almost matching him in Abu Dhabi. I do not see Merc challenging RB next year. McLaren seem to be in a better position than them. I think the order will be RB, Ferrari/McLaren (really close), Merc, Aston, AT, Alpine, Williams, Alfa, Haas.
Ferrari have no tyre wear "issue". They experience comparable wear to others who run the same downforce levels. Ferrari supposedly having poor tyre wear across 2023 is just a myth created by clueless pundits who do not look at any data; after Barcelona no excessive tyre wear was seen. At Silverstone for instance, they ruined their own race by pitting cautiously, expecting to experience bad tyre wear but it just didn't happen. Their main problem with tyres specifically currently is different tyre performance (so pace included - not just degradation) across different compounds within a weekend. I can't think of a single weekend in 2023 where Ferrari has performed well on all 3 compounds - usually with the hard tyre pace suffering the most.
Small differences in wear from Ferrari compared to other teams can also easily be addressed: for much of the season Ferrari ran smaller wings / lower downforce to tame balance issues which naturally looks after the tyres less in most situations thanks to more sliding, higher surface temps etc
Ferrari's main overall issue in 2023 and one that needs to be adressed the most for their 2024 chances is an inconsistent aero platform which seemed to be firstly slightly improved at Barcelona and then greatly improved by Suzuka upgrades after which car characteristics weren't changing from corner to corner as much leading to greater driver confidence and greater setup freedom
If Ferrari manage to solve their tyre wear issues, they are going to challenge for wins. Leclerc had better deg than Verstappen in Vegas on the mediums and almost matching him in Abu Dhabi. I do not see Merc challenging RB next year. McLaren seem to be in a better position than them. I think the order will be RB, Ferrari/McLaren (really close), Merc, Aston, AT, Alpine, Williams, Alfa, Haas.
Ferrari have no tyre wear "issue". They experience comparable wear to others who run the same downforce levels. Ferrari supposedly having poor tyre wear across 2023 is just a myth created by clueless pundits who do not look at any data; after Barcelona no excessive tyre wear was seen. At Silverstone for instance, they ruined their own race by pitting cautiously, expecting to experience bad tyre wear but it just didn't happen. Their main problem with tyres specifically currently is different tyre performance (so pace included - not just degradation) across different compounds within a weekend. I can't think of a single weekend in 2023 where Ferrari has performed well on all 3 compounds - usually with the hard tyre pace suffering the most.
Small differences in wear from Ferrari compared to other teams can also easily be addressed: for much of the season Ferrari ran smaller wings / lower downforce to tame balance issues which naturally looks after the tyres less in most situations thanks to more sliding, higher surface temps etc
Ferrari's main overall issue in 2023 and one that needs to be adressed the most for their 2024 chances is an inconsistent aero platform which seemed to be firstly slightly improved at Barcelona and then greatly improved by Suzuka upgrades after which car characteristics weren't changing from corner to corner as much leading to greater driver confidence and greater setup freedom
Well put. I think one point needs to be added though, Ferrari have consistently had problems with the hardest available compound since last year, they never seem to be able to bring it up to temperature in the race and often misjudge how bad the degradation will be. They basically always overestimate the deg and end up with slower pace.
1. Red Bull (15+ wins)
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2. Mercedes (2-5 wins)
3. Ferrari (2-5 wins)
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4. McLaren (0-3 wins)
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5. Alpha Tauri (1 win)
6. Aston Martin
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7. Alpine
8. Williams (faster than Alpine in theory, let down by Sargeant in practice)
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9. Haas
10. Sauber
Well put. I think one point needs to be added though, Ferrari have consistently had problems with the hardest available compound since last year, they never seem to be able to bring it up to temperature in the race and often misjudge how bad the degradation will be. They basically always overestimate the deg and end up with slower pace.
Perhaps they'd have worse deg if they pushed the tires harder for more pace?
Perhaps they'd have worse deg if they pushed the tires harder for more pace?
Towards the end of the season Leclerc usually stayed longer on the first stint (almost always Mediums this season) than Max and was the closest on pace he'd be during the race. So this suggests they were kinder on those tyres. Harder tyres operate on slightly higher temperatures afaik, so I'd say Ferrari chose (wrongly) to keep the harder tyres cooler than optimal. And for some reason this has been the case for a while, so points to a fundamental suspension feature. Mercedes also works the harder tyres slightly better than Ferrari most of the time, as does McLaren, so it's not like RB have a secret suspension trick.
I didn’t see anything from any team this year that causes me to think RB will be any less dominant next year. I’m just not seeing it. So same song, fourth verse next year I’m afraid.
I think Williams of all teams will make the biggest step forward next year as far as percentage gained. I think they may find enough to challenge Alpine, but maybe that’s just me being more hopeful than objective. Albon is fantastic. I’m not sure Sergeant is the best choice. James Vowles is outstanding. I think the budget limitations have really helped Williams while they have harmed Merc and Ferrari. In my dreams I see Fred going to Williams to finish his career helping develop them back to the sharp end, but I digress...
Speaking of Fred, I just finished watching the 2023 season again and one thing that stuck out to me was how long AMR was challenging the rest of the top teams. Fred finished second in the Netherlands. There’s only 9 or so races left at that point and they knew they would suck in Italy. That said, when they started the updates the car fell apart, so that leaves little confidence their choices will be any better than what Merc or Haas choose for 2024. Do they know what to do, or they not? It’s the same conundrum as at Merc, ironically. AMR certainly, like Merc, know what does not work. But do they know what does....? AMR new facilities won’t take actual effect till late 2024 and more likely, 2025...so likely they won’t be jumping out of the gates like they did in 2023. Stroll is terrible. Just terrible. Smh. He’s a tantrum throwing daddy’s boy, and nothing is going to change that. It’s unbelievable there are actually people at F1 tech that thought Stroll would beat Fred. WITHF.
Merc will have to pull their head out with strategy if they hope to continue their first loser form. They barely, and I mean barely, won p2...over an inconsistent and race pace abysmal Ferrari. Is that something to be proud of? Maybe. But if I was a Macca employee, I’d be far more proud of 2023 despite the lower finishing position.
Merc are my biggest unknown of all the teams for next year. They could bomb it...and yes I mean it both ways. Their deplorable aero choices for years now don’t offer much confidence walking into a revolutionary over evolutionary design for 2024. Toto is preaching a lot of returning to fundamentals and that’s a good call when you’ve no idea what you’re doing and want to stop playing pin the tail on the donkey. The luster of their unreal 8 season beat down has fully tarnished atp, and it’s time to deliver. Will they? I’ve honestly no idea.
I find king George’s obsession to beat Lewis at all costs quite amusing. It will be his undoing. The irony is, he can be faster than Lewis, but he is so obsessed to beat him, he can’t be relaxed and objective enough to do so, and so comes up short ultimately. Lol. I grin watching every race unfold with Merc because it’s like a miniature sit-com with that guy. Anyway, I think this next year will really render how good a leader Toto is, and if he has the leadership capability and prowess to bring the team back. If they find themselves behind Macca and Ferrari, there may be big changes coming for Merc in 2026. Furthermore, Lewis is not about to stick around to try and ameliorate Merc’s incompetence. This all reminds me of the John Candy/Steve Martin scene in Plains Trains and Automobiles when Candy is driving the wrong way on the highway. This is how I see Toto for the last two years...
Ferrari will keep being Ferrari. Why would anything change? They seem determined to fire their way to the top. I lost all confidence in them when they canned Binotto and they will pay for that bonehead decision, for years. They fired the guy the team members would have fought to win for, for a Frenchman nobody knows or has any passion for. Just a terrible terrible call from Ferrari. I have less confidence in their current principal, Vasseur, than Wolff. And that’s saying something. Shal deserves a better car. I see the relationship between Shal and Carlos like the one that was shared between Vettel and Webber. They won’t, IMO, get on so well as time goes on—especially if Ferrari find a nut and deliver a competitive car. That likely won’t happen tho because RB is going to mow the field next year. Carlos and Shal won’t take off the gloves for p2. I expect Ferrari, like always, to have moments of OMG! mixed with moments of omg.
Macca is who I’m most excited about for next year. They have the right drivers, a seasoned leadership, good strategists, and the right aero trajectory for the car. They know their car and how to make it work. Their updates were successful and this means they have some kind of good correlation / grasp in the wind tunnel. I expect them to take the first losing position next year, and open with a 0.1-0.2 advantage over p3 in 2024. The Norris and Piastri pair are second to no team on the grid and will add to the Macca advantage. I am actually expecting a lot from them (and of course Williams) come next year.
I expect RB to hold about a second advantage at the start of next year and they will hold that advantage equaling all other teams updates with competitive counterparts of their own as the year progresses. Really don’t expect much to change. Like Merc in 2014 and 15, RB will manage their advantage. Yes, they are that good. When a Tesla level genius is at the aero helm, and a Tom Landry type is directing traffic, I’m sorry, but at some point you must bow to your sensei. There’s just no replacing the Newey-Horner-Max trifecta (they always come in three’s) anymore than there’s a way to replace Michelangelo, or Mozart, or Monet. Get ready for another walked championship, folks. We all should be used to this by now.
I think RB held onto Checo because he’s very easy to control, he’s not as fast as Max, and he clearly is the crone at the dance. In fact, their retention of him only renders the advantage they expect in 2024. If Horner was not confident in their next car, he would be seeking a more competitive second driver. Horner is not missing anything. He’s not blind to what we see. He’s calculating a hard to replace position that requires a certain passive disposition, and a championship winning driver is never passive. Vettel’s multi-21 move should be the eternal lesson that championship winning drivers are killers at the core. It’s why they win. There’s no crying in baseball and there’s no such thing as loyalty on track—for the winners at least. Checo will submit to the team and obey because he doesn’t have a championship burning inside him. Heck he went to RB because his career was coming to a close and they saved him. He knows this. We know this. Horner knows this. It is what it is, and Horner sees it all. It’s why he’s a great principal. Expect big from RB next year, and expect Checo to be, well, Checo.
1. RB
2. MACCA
3. FERRARI
4. MERC
5. AMR
6. WILLIAMS <—-dare to dream!
7. ALPINE
8. AT
9. HAAS
10. SAUBER
Come on Andretti Racing!
Ferrari will keep being Ferrari. Why would anything change? They seem determined to fire their way to the top. I lost all confidence in them when they canned Binotto and they will pay for that bonehead decision, for years. They fired the guy the team members would have fought to win for, for a Frenchman nobody knows or has any passion for. Just a terrible terrible call from Ferrari. I have less confidence in their current principal, Vasseur, than Wolff. And that’s saying something.
I very much disagree with this. Firing Binotto was 100% something that needed to happen, frankly he should never been promoted to TP in the first place. It felt like the team were in a constant blackhole during his tenure. Strategy and team operations were at an all time low in 2022 (even by Ferrari's recent terrible standards), his driver management of Vettel and Leclerc in 2019 was shambolic, then again with Leclerc in 2022. If they stuck with him, I don't think Leclerc would be signing a new contract.
I personally feel more confident in Ferrari than I have in a while under Vasseur. Despite the complete dud of a car Binotto left him with at the start of 2023, they actually progressed with reasonable promise this season. Strategy/pitstops were far better, especially in the second half of the season. They actually improved the car for once during a season despite bringing few upgrades. The drivers, particularly Leclerc, are clearly much happier working under Vasseur than they were with Binotto (rumours of a multi-year contract renewal).
Ferrari will keep being Ferrari. Why would anything change? They seem determined to fire their way to the top. I lost all confidence in them when they canned Binotto and they will pay for that bonehead decision, for years. They fired the guy the team members would have fought to win for, for a Frenchman nobody knows or has any passion for. Just a terrible terrible call from Ferrari. I have less confidence in their current principal, Vasseur, than Wolff. And that’s saying something.
I very much disagree with this. Firing Binotto was 100% something that needed to happen, frankly he should never been promoted to TP in the first place. It felt like the team were in a constant blackhole during his tenure. Strategy and team operations were at an all time low in 2022 (even by Ferrari's recent terrible standards), his driver management of Vettel and Leclerc in 2019 was shambolic, then again with Leclerc in 2022. If they stuck with him, I don't think Leclerc would be signing a new contract.
I personally feel more confident in Ferrari than I have in a while under Vasseur. Despite the complete dud of a car Binotto left him with at the start of 2023, they actually progressed with reasonable promise this season. Strategy/pitstops were far better, especially in the second half of the season. They actually improved the car for once during a season despite bringing few upgrades. The drivers, particularly Leclerc, are clearly much happier working under Vasseur than they were with Binotto (rumours of a multi-year contract renewal).
2nd constructors and drivers too 3rd in the constructors and 5th place in the drivers? i dont see how they have progressed, to me, it looks like they have gone backwards, not forwards, so surely they regressed?
Albon is fantastic. I’m not sure Sergeant is the best choice. James Vowles is outstanding. I think the budget limitations have really helped Williams while they have harmed Merc and Ferrari. In my dreams I see Fred going to Williams to finish his career helping develop them back to the sharp end, but I digress...
AMR new facilities won’t take actual effect till late 2024 and more likely, 2025...so likely they won’t be jumping out of the gates like they did in 2023. Stroll is terrible. Just terrible. Smh. He’s a tantrum throwing daddy’s boy, and nothing is going to change that. It’s unbelievable there are actually people at F1 tech that thought Stroll would beat Fred. WITHF. 
Anyway, I think this next year will really render how good a leader Toto is, and if he has the leadership capability and prowess to bring the team back. If they find themselves behind Macca and Ferrari, there may be big changes coming for Merc in 2026. Furthermore, Lewis is not about to stick around to try and ameliorate Merc’s incompetence. This all reminds me of the John Candy/Steve Martin scene in Plains Trains and Automobiles when Candy is driving the wrong way on the highway. This is how I see Toto for the last two years...