Ferrari SF-24 speculation

[FDD]

Well, from a now reliable source we know that the 676 will have 95% of the components different from the old SF-23 (which is normal) but Vasseur says that the car will be different but not revolutionised.

He said 95% as way of saying a lot of things will have to change. 23 car had more than 95% new parts compared to 22 car, but it wasn't 95% new the way 24 car will be.

We have to define terms "revolution" and "evolution".
Revolution I understand something like fundamental changes, in this case aero concept, suspension concept etc.
Evolution like improving of something that already exist.
This is in general...
Then, we know that they plan to move SIS in the floor which means more space for undercut for example.
In-wash, down wash or in-wash/down-wash we'll see etc.
However my opinion that we are talking for evolution, cause we already know and have in practice all these elaborations.
Revolution was designing ground effect cars i.e. we have revolution with 2022 cars which was fundamental change in respect to previous ones.
Is it possible for someone to create elaboration/interpretation of current rules which is unseen to present day, I do not know and that would be in some way revolution.
Also, my opinion is that discussions about whether the new Red car will be revolution or evolution is quite useless.
All these are my opinions.
Maybe I am not right, but also I am not wrong

[Vanja #66]

We have to define terms "revolution" and "evolution".
Revolution I understand something like fundamental changes, in this case aero concept, suspension concept etc.
Evolution like improving of something that already exist.
This is in general...
Then, we know that they plan to move SIS in the floor which means more space for undercut for example.
In-wash, down wash or in-wash/down-wash we'll see etc.
However my opinion that we are talking for evolution, cause we already know and have in practice all these elaborations.
Revolution was designing ground effect cars i.e. we have revolution with 2022 cars which was fundamental change in respect to previous ones.
Is it possible for someone to create elaboration/interpretation of current rules which is unseen to present day, I do not know and that would be in some way revolution.
Also, my opinion is that discussions about whether the new Red car will be revolution or evolution is quite useless.
All these are my opinions.
Maybe I am not right, but also I am not wrong

SF-23 Evo was basically a half-step revolution in terms of flow management around and inside bodywork, while Japan floor was likely a very large step away from launch-spec floor. Austria front wing was also a decent change. In a way, I think they already did the "revolution" but they have lots of additional changes to make to fully optimise this direction they are taking. In that sense, it's an evolution compared to the final-spec of SF-23.

What it most definitely will be is a completely different-working car compared to launch-spec SF-23. So not only parts and overall aero philosophy, but also overall set up directions (more towards the race), tyre management, everything.

[FDD]

We have to define terms "revolution" and "evolution".
Revolution I understand something like fundamental changes, in this case aero concept, suspension concept etc.
Evolution like improving of something that already exist.
This is in general...
Then, we know that they plan to move SIS in the floor which means more space for undercut for example.
In-wash, down wash or in-wash/down-wash we'll see etc.
However my opinion that we are talking for evolution, cause we already know and have in practice all these elaborations.
Revolution was designing ground effect cars i.e. we have revolution with 2022 cars which was fundamental change in respect to previous ones.
Is it possible for someone to create elaboration/interpretation of current rules which is unseen to present day, I do not know and that would be in some way revolution.
Also, my opinion is that discussions about whether the new Red car will be revolution or evolution is quite useless.
All these are my opinions.
Maybe I am not right, but also I am not wrong

SF-23 Evo was basically a half-step revolution in terms of flow management around and inside bodywork, while Japan floor was likely a very large step away from launch-spec floor. Austria front wing was also a decent change. In a way, I think they already did the "revolution" but they have lots of additional changes to make to fully optimise this direction they are taking. In that sense, it's an evolution compared to the final-spec of SF-23.

What it most definitely will be is a completely different-working car compared to launch-spec SF-23. So not only parts and overall aero philosophy, but also overall set up directions (more towards the race), tyre management, everything.

Talking about the flow management around and inside, I can agree that certain kind of revolution is posible in the way how the rules are interpreted.
Do they make this revolution I do not know cause I am not an aero guy and I am relaying on your expertise.
Also if you have time and will would be good to make some analysis/explanations on that subject to present here cause it is important for the 2024 car.
I would be very grateful and would be happy to read it.
Thank You.

[jambuka]

Are there any speculative numbers yet on how much will Ferrari gain through winter development ? Toto has mentioned Mercedes expects 2.5 seconds.

[organic]

Are there any speculative numbers yet on how much will Ferrari gain through winter development ? Toto has mentioned Mercedes expects 2.5 seconds.

Toto did not say that and there are no numbers yet from either team. Andrea Stella of McLaren has said that they expect McLaren will need to find half a second to "be competitive" in the context of whether or not mclaren will win a race next year. Half a second seems like the right sort of amount over the winter to me.

It's all such tight margins though. If one team finds 7 tenths and others find 5 that could be enough for them to fight with RB for instance.

Mercedes is so far the team that have been most vocal about how things are going in developing next year's car, but they haven't put numbers to it nor did Toto say they expecting 2.5s. that will be a misinterpretation or a mistranslation. Most concrete thing I've read was from James Allison stating that they've "made a lot of progress" and that they hope it's enough to compete for both championships.

[KimiRai]

Are there any speculative numbers yet on how much will Ferrari gain through winter development ? Toto has mentioned Mercedes expects 2.5 seconds.

2.5 O_o where did you read that? not even Toto's wet dreams show that amount...

[organic]

Are there any speculative numbers yet on how much will Ferrari gain through winter development ? Toto has mentioned Mercedes expects 2.5 seconds.

2.5 O_o where did you read that? apart from a Toto wet dream...

“It shows that if you unlock potential, then you can have a big step forward. Not just bolting on a tenth of downforce, and this is just what we need to find. So we’re gonna make a two-and-a-half-second step like [Aston Martin] did,” declared Wolff.

He was being facetious and the typical low quality news reposting sources (gpblog etc) took it at face value. It was a quote from the F1 Nation podcast and he said it in a jokey manner. Pedro de la Rosa (AMR employee) was on the panel of the F1 Nation podcast asking Toto about next year, so that's presumably why he made that comment about AMR

[KimiRai]

“It shows that if you unlock potential, then you can have a big step forward. Not just bolting on a tenth of downforce, and this is just what we need to find. So we’re gonna make a two-and-a-half-second step like [Aston Martin] did,” declared Wolff.

He was being facetious and the typical low quality news reposting sources (gpblog etc) took it at face value. It was a quote from the F1 Nation podcast and he said it in a jokey manner. Pedro de la Rosa (AMR employee) was on the panel of the F1 Nation podcast asking Toto about next year, so that's presumably why he made that comment about AMR

okay, makes sense.

What is the source?

I'd like to know as well.

Another thing: please, in general, don't use ScuderiaFans as a source, as they have a history of making things up through translations from italian articles.

It was from one of the spanish journalists present at the private Christmas lunch, sorry for not being able to reply sooner. I dont think there should be any issue.

[KimiRai]

It was from one of the spanish journalists present at the private Christmas lunch, sorry for not being able to reply sooner. I dont think there should be any issue.

I can also add that those words came from Cardile and others who he spoke with. Full quote (mind you it's a translation)

Talking to the men who have created it, I was able to talk to Enrico Cardile and he was telling me that the car has little to do with this year's car, it's a different concept, (I guess it's going to be quite Red Bullish), and the data in the simulator says that the 2024 Ferrari is quicker in the faster corners than the current one, not difficult as it was their weak point: fast corners and wide radius corners. And that compared to a Ferrari that was good in fast cornering like the 2022 one, depending on where and what circuit, [the data says] it's even faster, and they think it might be easier to drive.

[AR3-GP]

It was from one of the spanish journalists present at the private Christmas lunch, sorry for not being able to reply sooner. I dont think there should be any issue.

I can also add that those words came from Cardile and others who he spoke with. Full quote (mind you it's a translation)

Talking to the men who have created it, I was able to talk to Enrico Cardile and he was telling me that the car has little to do with this year's car, it's a different concept, (I guess it's going to be quite Red Bullish), and the data in the simulator says that the 2024 Ferrari is quicker in the faster corners than the current one, not difficult as it was their weak point: fast corners and wide radius corners. And that compared to a Ferrari that was good in fast cornering like the 2022 one, depending on where and what circuit, [the data says] it's even faster, and they think it might be easier to drive.

A car 2 years advanced in design (2024 car) should be faster than a 2022 spec car in every kind of corner no matter the circuit, especially an early 2022 spec car. It's a strange comment.

[KimiRai]

It was from one of the spanish journalists present at the private Christmas lunch, sorry for not being able to reply sooner. I dont think there should be any issue.

I can also add that those words came from Cardile and others who he spoke with. Full quote (mind you it's a translation)

Talking to the men who have created it, I was able to talk to Enrico Cardile and he was telling me that the car has little to do with this year's car, it's a different concept, (I guess it's going to be quite Red Bullish), and the data in the simulator says that the 2024 Ferrari is quicker in the faster corners than the current one, not difficult as it was their weak point: fast corners and wide radius corners. And that compared to a Ferrari that was good in fast cornering like the 2022 one, depending on where and what circuit, [the data says] it's even faster, and they think it might be easier to drive.

A car 2 years advanced in design (2024 car) should be faster than a 2022 spec car in every kind of corner no matter the circuit, especially an early 2022 spec car. It's a strange comment.

Well strange or not I cant tell, im not as aware of Ferraris recent car history, those were the words. The 2024 car is also at the stage of passing the crash test, should be relatively soon.

[Vanja #66]

Talking about the flow management around and inside, I can agree that certain kind of revolution is posible in the way how the rules are interpreted.
Do they make this revolution I do not know cause I am not an aero guy and I am relaying on your expertise.
Also if you have time and will would be good to make some analysis/explanations on that subject to present here cause it is important for the 2024 car.
I would be very grateful and would be happy to read it.
Thank You.

Unfortunately, there is not a lot that we know for certain, neither about sidepod-diffuser rear corner interference nor the floor flow structures in these complex RB-like floors. As for rear corner and diffuser flow management, what Ferrari had in 2022 was working very well obviously, but in 23 the floor edge got higher and they made their launch sidepods without a big side wall surface and much more tapered, which left a lot more of the floor exposed. In my view, downwash sidepods are working better with 23 rules because they somehow prevent the dirty air (and crosswinds) from entering diffuser better than 23 launch inwash design from Ferrari. The area in question is circled in green here



I believe the mechanism at play there is literally having a wall that generates slight pressurisation in yaw in that area which is forcing the dirty air probably up and towards rear tyre. The thing about this is that very small changes in pressure in this area can have big consequences for the path the low-energy dirty air will take. If you only look at flow-vis, you might get a wrong impression that all the air in this space is always going towards diffuser mouse hole, but in reality we don't know what is happening 20mm from the bodywork surface, much less 50 or 100mm which is very important for understanding what is really going on.



So how all this will translate to Ferrari 24 car, I have no clue I really wouldn't be surprised if they go full-width downwash ramp. Nor if they keep their hybrid solution slightly changed... The front will be very RB-like for sure, that much is certain, I think they should skip right to the final RB19 inlet and undercut design, no need to go step-by-step with the new car.

A car 2 years advanced in design (2024 car) should be faster than a 2022 spec car in every kind of corner no matter the circuit, especially an early 2022 spec car. It's a strange comment.

Considering how bad SF-23 was in some corners compared to F1-75 even in the final spec and especially early in the season, it's valid for Ferrari staff to point this out. It's not a big statement, I think they just pointed it out to quantify they see a definitive progress with the new car in an area that was a weak point.

[DoctorRadio]

It was from one of the spanish journalists present at the private Christmas lunch, sorry for not being able to reply sooner. I dont think there should be any issue.

I can also add that those words came from Cardile and others who he spoke with. Full quote (mind you it's a translation)

Talking to the men who have created it, I was able to talk to Enrico Cardile and he was telling me that the car has little to do with this year's car, it's a different concept, (I guess it's going to be quite Red Bullish), and the data in the simulator says that the 2024 Ferrari is quicker in the faster corners than the current one, not difficult as it was their weak point: fast corners and wide radius corners. And that compared to a Ferrari that was good in fast cornering like the 2022 one, depending on where and what circuit, [the data says] it's even faster, and they think it might be easier to drive.

Thanks.
I don’t understand what they are aiming for, I think they should compare to the track data of the RB19 that was already faster than the Ferrari 2022 car pretty much everywhere, what’s the point in comparing themselves to the F1-75?
They can tell this BS to Elkann and Vigna, certainly Vasseur is not that naive.

[AmateurDriver]

It was from one of the spanish journalists present at the private Christmas lunch, sorry for not being able to reply sooner. I dont think there should be any issue.

I can also add that those words came from Cardile and others who he spoke with. Full quote (mind you it's a translation)

Talking to the men who have created it, I was able to talk to Enrico Cardile and he was telling me that the car has little to do with this year's car, it's a different concept, (I guess it's going to be quite Red Bullish), and the data in the simulator says that the 2024 Ferrari is quicker in the faster corners than the current one, not difficult as it was their weak point: fast corners and wide radius corners. And that compared to a Ferrari that was good in fast cornering like the 2022 one, depending on where and what circuit, [the data says] it's even faster, and they think it might be easier to drive.

Thanks.
I don’t understand what they are aiming for, I think they should compare to the track data of the RB19 that was already faster than the Ferrari 2022 car pretty much everywhere, what’s the point in comparing themselves to the F1-75?
They can tell this BS to Elkann and Vigna, certainly Vasseur is not that naive.

Not true. 2023 cars had been constrained to an higher ride height. They were often (not always) cornering faster thanks to new tyres. Not to a much bigger downforce.

[Xyz22]

It was from one of the spanish journalists present at the private Christmas lunch, sorry for not being able to reply sooner. I dont think there should be any issue.

I can also add that those words came from Cardile and others who he spoke with. Full quote (mind you it's a translation)

Talking to the men who have created it, I was able to talk to Enrico Cardile and he was telling me that the car has little to do with this year's car, it's a different concept, (I guess it's going to be quite Red Bullish), and the data in the simulator says that the 2024 Ferrari is quicker in the faster corners than the current one, not difficult as it was their weak point: fast corners and wide radius corners. And that compared to a Ferrari that was good in fast cornering like the 2022 one, depending on where and what circuit, [the data says] it's even faster, and they think it might be easier to drive.

Thanks.
I don’t understand what they are aiming for, I think they should compare to the track data of the RB19 that was already faster than the Ferrari 2022 car pretty much everywhere, what’s the point in comparing themselves to the F1-75?
They can tell this BS to Elkann and Vigna, certainly Vasseur is not that naive.

Very strange that Motorsport Italy didn't report on that statement from Cardile as they also had the chance to speak with him.
In any event, we shouldn't take these statements too seriously. Vasseur said multiple times they don't want to create high expectations, knowing what happened last year and the advantage RB had in the 2023 season.

We'll immediately see in Bahrain during test what progress Ferrari made.