Mercedes W15 Speculation Thread

[Sevach]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... /10566859/

Better rear end is the latest rumor.

[organic]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... /10566859/

Better rear end is the latest rumor.

Would make sense. In '23 testing that seemed to be the biggest issue for Merc and probably something they didn't expect at all. Even with their big RW the rear was just sliding around. Was perhaps the biggest issue with the car given it also undermined driver confidence (and a stable rear is something Lewis' style does better with, judging by which cars he's been better with)

Anyhow, Allison says that they believe they have tamed the characteristic, even if it's only simulations at this stage

what we do have some hope for is that some of the more spiteful characteristics of the rear end of our car will be a bit more friendly to us, and the handling of the car a happier thing.

“That's all in simulation, but nevertheless we’ve got reasonable grounds to believe that we've made some gain there.”

[Venturiation]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... /10566859/

Better rear end is the latest rumor.

“On top of that [handling], you've got all the normal housekeeping type stuff of just making it lighter, making it more downforcy and hopefully getting a bit of uplift from the power unit side, with the calibration level tinkering that they're still capable of doing under these current rules,” he said.

“Whether it's enough, time will tell. But it's nevertheless going to be interesting because we saw some things we knew were problems. We have hypothesized what the reason for those problems were, and we fixed those reasons. It will be interesting to find out how accurate we've been with that diagnosis.”

“We hope we've done a good job with the new car, and we hope we've addressed some of the shortcomings that were so publicly on display with it last year,” he said.

“There is also just a little bit that nestles in the back of our heads, which is that the rules themselves have a much more sort of clear upper bound to them in the amount of lap time these cars are capable of producing.

“It’s a much more clear upper bound to them than the older generation of cars, which the more love you gave them and the more labour you put into them, the faster they got, seemingly without end.

“I think if you look at last year you see from the start of the season to the end of the season, although Red Bull's dominance was near complete and they didn't look vulnerable even to the last race of the year, if you look at the bigger picture, this is a grid that is gradually compressing.”

[Matt2725]

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/merc ... /10566859/

Better rear end is the latest rumor.

“On top of that [handling], you've got all the normal housekeeping type stuff of just making it lighter, making it more downforcy and hopefully getting a bit of uplift from the power unit side, with the calibration level tinkering that they're still capable of doing under these current rules,” he said.

“Whether it's enough, time will tell. But it's nevertheless going to be interesting because we saw some things we knew were problems. We have hypothesized what the reason for those problems were, and we fixed those reasons. It will be interesting to find out how accurate we've been with that diagnosis.”

“We hope we've done a good job with the new car, and we hope we've addressed some of the shortcomings that were so publicly on display with it last year,” he said.

“There is also just a little bit that nestles in the back of our heads, which is that the rules themselves have a much more sort of clear upper bound to them in the amount of lap time these cars are capable of producing.

“It’s a much more clear upper bound to them than the older generation of cars, which the more love you gave them and the more labour you put into them, the faster they got, seemingly without end.

“I think if you look at last year you see from the start of the season to the end of the season, although Red Bull's dominance was near complete and they didn't look vulnerable even to the last race of the year, if you look at the bigger picture, this is a grid that is gradually compressing.”

Interesting that he seems to believe that perhaps we are approaching diminishing returns on these cars.
The logical sense would be due to the lower budgets, we wouldn't get anywhere near the true capability of these regulations before 2026. Yet here, he suggests there to be an upper limit which is slowly being approached.

[KimiRai]

Interesting that he seems to believe that perhaps we are approaching diminishing returns on these cars.
The logical sense would be due to the lower budgets, we wouldn't get anywhere near the true capability of these regulations before 2026. Yet here, he suggests there to be an upper limit which is slowly being approached.

This is clearly contrary to what Stella said at the very least, and (less likely) to what Fallows suggested.

Stella: “So far, we don’t see diminishing returns. This obviously will have to be proven once we put the car on the ground, but when it comes to the windtunnel development and the CFD development, we see that the gradient we established last year that led to the Austria development and then the Singapore development. [It] seems like we can maintain it.

“So that's also where I would expect the launch car to be at the start of the season. And in the background, we are already starting to work on the further developments that we hope to bring relatively soon in-season and they also seem to be quite interesting. So I would say in terms of the regulations themselves and in terms of the development we are aiming specifically at McLaren, we see the kind of linear gradient of development can be maintained.”

Can Aston Martin make as big a leap this winter ahead of 2024 as it did last winter?

Fallows: “It's absolutely possible,” insisted Fallows. “We've seen with what we did at the beginning of the season that there are still opportunities to make a big step forward.

“For us, the most important thing is that we're making that big step forward. We have our internal targets. We have things that we want to achieve, and as long as we achieve that, then we'll be happy.

[Venturiation]

Interesting that he seems to believe that perhaps we are approaching diminishing returns on these cars.
The logical sense would be due to the lower budgets, we wouldn't get anywhere near the true capability of these regulations before 2026. Yet here, he suggests there to be an upper limit which is slowly being approached.

This is clearly contrary to what Stella said at the very least, and (less likely) to what Fallows suggested.

Stella: “So far, we don’t see diminishing returns. This obviously will have to be proven once we put the car on the ground, but when it comes to the windtunnel development and the CFD development, we see that the gradient we established last year that led to the Austria development and then the Singapore development. [It] seems like we can maintain it.

“So that's also where I would expect the launch car to be at the start of the season. And in the background, we are already starting to work on the further developments that we hope to bring relatively soon in-season and they also seem to be quite interesting. So I would say in terms of the regulations themselves and in terms of the development we are aiming specifically at McLaren, we see the kind of linear gradient of development can be maintained.”

Can Aston Martin make as big a leap this winter ahead of 2024 as it did last winter?

Fallows: “It's absolutely possible,” insisted Fallows. “We've seen with what we did at the beginning of the season that there are still opportunities to make a big step forward.

“For us, the most important thing is that we're making that big step forward. We have our internal targets. We have things that we want to achieve, and as long as we achieve that, then we'll be happy.

But James didn't say reached the limit, just that the limit is clear

“There is also just a little bit that nestles in the back of our heads, which is that the rules themselves have a much more sort of clear upper bound to them in the amount of lap time these cars are capable of producing.

“It’s a much more clear upper bound to them than the older generation of cars, which the more love you gave them and the more labour you put into them, the faster they got, seemingly without end.

[AR3-GP]

Interesting that he seems to believe that perhaps we are approaching diminishing returns on these cars.
The logical sense would be due to the lower budgets, we wouldn't get anywhere near the true capability of these regulations before 2026. Yet here, he suggests there to be an upper limit which is slowly being approached.

This is clearly contrary to what Stella said at the very least, and (less likely) to what Fallows suggested.

Stella: “So far, we don’t see diminishing returns. This obviously will have to be proven once we put the car on the ground, but when it comes to the windtunnel development and the CFD development, we see that the gradient we established last year that led to the Austria development and then the Singapore development. [It] seems like we can maintain it.

“So that's also where I would expect the launch car to be at the start of the season. And in the background, we are already starting to work on the further developments that we hope to bring relatively soon in-season and they also seem to be quite interesting. So I would say in terms of the regulations themselves and in terms of the development we are aiming specifically at McLaren, we see the kind of linear gradient of development can be maintained.”

Can Aston Martin make as big a leap this winter ahead of 2024 as it did last winter?

Fallows: “It's absolutely possible,” insisted Fallows. “We've seen with what we did at the beginning of the season that there are still opportunities to make a big step forward.

“For us, the most important thing is that we're making that big step forward. We have our internal targets. We have things that we want to achieve, and as long as we achieve that, then we'll be happy.

But James didn't say reached the limit, just that the limit is clear

“There is also just a little bit that nestles in the back of our heads, which is that the rules themselves have a much more sort of clear upper bound to them in the amount of lap time these cars are capable of producing.

“It’s a much more clear upper bound to them than the older generation of cars, which the more love you gave them and the more labour you put into them, the faster they got, seemingly without end.

Ultimately we have to take anything Merc says with a grain of salt. On the evidence of the last 2 seasons, they are not exactly the authority on ground effect.

[Venturiation]

This is clearly contrary to what Stella said at the very least, and (less likely) to what Fallows suggested.

But James didn't say reached the limit, just that the limit is clear

“There is also just a little bit that nestles in the back of our heads, which is that the rules themselves have a much more sort of clear upper bound to them in the amount of lap time these cars are capable of producing.

“It’s a much more clear upper bound to them than the older generation of cars, which the more love you gave them and the more labour you put into them, the faster they got, seemingly without end.

Ultimately we have to take anything Merc says with a grain of salt. On the evidence of the last 2 seasons, they are not exactly the authority on ground effect.

Explain how they have such bad cars and flawed design but still finished 3rd and 2nd

[Sieper]

Because that is in comparison to finishing first, first, first, first, first, first, first and first in the previous aero formula(s). It is not such a bad car, but they have been very bullish and then 3rd, so completely understand their concept they can’t have been back then.

[AR3-GP]

But James didn't say reached the limit, just that the limit is clear

“There is also just a little bit that nestles in the back of our heads, which is that the rules themselves have a much more sort of clear upper bound to them in the amount of lap time these cars are capable of producing.

“It’s a much more clear upper bound to them than the older generation of cars, which the more love you gave them and the more labour you put into them, the faster they got, seemingly without end.

Ultimately we have to take anything Merc says with a grain of salt. On the evidence of the last 2 seasons, they are not exactly the authority on ground effect.

Explain how they have such bad cars and flawed design but still finished 3rd and 2nd

They finished 3rd and 2nd with 1 GP win. Many of the other teams don't know what to do either.

[Jamiee]

Was just wondering... in 2021 (8th title) did RB make a big leap from the previous years to be that competitive...? And if so, how possible is it for the Mercedes W15 to be very competitive this year...?

[stonehenge]

Interesting that he seems to believe that perhaps we are approaching diminishing returns on these cars.
The logical sense would be due to the lower budgets, we wouldn't get anywhere near the true capability of these regulations before 2026. Yet here, he suggests there to be an upper limit which is slowly being approached.

This is clearly contrary to what Stella said at the very least, and (less likely) to what Fallows suggested.

Stella: “So far, we don’t see diminishing returns. This obviously will have to be proven once we put the car on the ground, but when it comes to the windtunnel development and the CFD development, we see that the gradient we established last year that led to the Austria development and then the Singapore development. [It] seems like we can maintain it.

“So that's also where I would expect the launch car to be at the start of the season. And in the background, we are already starting to work on the further developments that we hope to bring relatively soon in-season and they also seem to be quite interesting. So I would say in terms of the regulations themselves and in terms of the development we are aiming specifically at McLaren, we see the kind of linear gradient of development can be maintained.”

Can Aston Martin make as big a leap this winter ahead of 2024 as it did last winter?

Fallows: “It's absolutely possible,” insisted Fallows. “We've seen with what we did at the beginning of the season that there are still opportunities to make a big step forward.

“For us, the most important thing is that we're making that big step forward. We have our internal targets. We have things that we want to achieve, and as long as we achieve that, then we'll be happy.

But James didn't say reached the limit, just that the limit is clear

“There is also just a little bit that nestles in the back of our heads, which is that the rules themselves have a much more sort of clear upper bound to them in the amount of lap time these cars are capable of producing.

“It’s a much more clear upper bound to them than the older generation of cars, which the more love you gave them and the more labour you put into them, the faster they got, seemingly without end.

I found additional quotes on AMuS (in German, but I can vouch for the accuracy of the translation):

Only the race track will show whether the progress is sufficient. In theory, the field at the front should be closer together, says Allison: "These ground effect cars have a relatively clearly defined limit, unlike the generation before, where every change always resulted in more lap time."

It was already apparent in 2023 that the room for improvement was limited. "Red Bull has only improved to a limited extent compared to the car from the end of 2022. And in Q1, 20 cars were sometimes within a second of each other. These are clear signs of convergence. If you've done a good job with your car, you should benefit from that. Then the drivers, the team's work at the track and reliability become the decisive factors."

[chrisc90]

I cant make any sense of the quote to be honest.

It must mean that they have hit the absolute best that is possible under the era of regulations. I mean Merc havent ran a updated chassis yet to know whether moving things like the SIPs they needed for the mid wing, to know what the cars doing on track.

Either their new car is the best they are ever going to achieve, or they are bluffing, but its still a very strange quote to make when you have 9 months 'on the job' leading your design team.

[AR3-GP]

Comparing any car end of 2022 to end of 2023 doesn't make sense because there was a regulations change that cut downforce which teams had to recover from. In spite of that, some teams were faster than last year.

[Vanja #66]

Ultimately we have to take anything Merc says with a grain of salt. On the evidence of the last 2 seasons, they are not exactly the authority on ground effect.

As much as this stands, I'm sure this was meant to make Merc appear weak on purpose. "When strong, appear weak."

I have absolutely no doubt there is an abundance of floor geometries, within the rules, that allow the floor to generate much more downforce than teams reached in 2023, across wider range of ride heights. The trick is to find the right path and reach this point.