2024 Mercedes-AMG | Petronas F1 Team

[Redragon]

Nobody is going to sign until seeing how this car really is performing. Hamilton leaving when the season haven’t started is not a good sign for others drivers. I believe.

[Sevach]

Also, I was wondering what would be the most probable time of announcing the 2025 seat. I reckon somewhere around summer break, gives time to think and negotiate as they have a lot of options. I would not expect a decision early on.

I think they'll try to wrap it up as soon as possible to maintain stability / reduce media speculation

Mercedes seems truly caught with their pants down, often these announcements are close together, Ferrari announces Vettel, Red Bull announces Kvyat right away.
When Hamilton left Mclaren, Macca was faster to announce Perez than Merc to announce Lewis.

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Also, I was wondering what would be the most probable time of announcing the 2025 seat. I reckon somewhere around summer break, gives time to think and negotiate as they have a lot of options. I would not expect a decision early on.

I think they'll try to wrap it up as soon as possible to maintain stability / reduce media speculation

Mercedes seems truly caught with their pants down, often these announcements are close together, Ferrari announces Vettel, Red Bull announces Kvyat right away.
When Hamilton left Mclaren, Macca was faster to announce Perez than Merc to announce Lewis.

Indeed. Toto was not even in Brackley for the meeting about Lewis leaving. Apparently he attended virtually from spain or italy (I heard Milan). Saw elsewhere that Toto was informed by Lewis only yesterday

So yeah. Seems to have truly been sprung on Merc.

Some reasons to wait before signing a driver

- Driver situations always become clearer later in the year: which pairings aren't working, which drivers are unhappy etc

- Can see how Antonelli does in F2 first: doubt Merc would move him directly to pair Russell for 2025 but whether or not he'd be ready for a Williams seat could make a move for someone like Albon easier if Merc can offer a ready driver to replace them.

- The Merc seat is undeniably desirable. Solid drivers like Gasly, Ocon, maybe even Alonso would all be open to it. So Merc doesn't necessarily need to scramble in order to get someone good enough.

[BMMR61]

This has been bubbling under for may weeks. Why else was Fred stalling on the Sainz extension negotiations? Despite a largely negative British fan base attitude to Carlos, he was actually a fantastic fit with Charles and there was harmony. The 31st of January would be the date of notice by Lewis which will have a contractual significance. He has been obviously unhappy with both the car and his teammate (going back to VB's sacking).

It's a sad day for Mercedes F1 and as a McLaren fan I'm certainly not here to gloat. There are some serious ramifications that go beyond losing their GOAT and a guy who is still really impressive on track even if he polarises opinion hugely off-track. It feels like his opinions on developmental direction have been ignored to some extent which is hard to fathom. The loss of many key staff is hard to replace and takes time. Just the profile that the 7 time champion brings is hard to overestimate and this forum will see a huge defection of fans to the red team. It's never a good time to face a resignation of this magnitude but it's extra difficult because of the state of the driver market. Zak Brown has been playing a blinder over the last 12 months or so and those two guys would both be near the top of any team's shopping list were they to enter the market.

So it's for me an easy three way choice of replacement - two Spaniards and a Thai, they're all willing and able, nobody else comes close.

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Ocon and Gasly would be uninspiring but fine. Ocon was between +0.2s and +0.0s slower than Alo at alpine which is very respectable and so far Gasly has been quicker despite coming into a team built around Ocon.

Russell is more than capable of leading from 2025 even if many fans are not completely sold on him. Of course he's not a 7x wdc but he was at most a tenth slower than Lewis

[selvam_e2002]

So.
Alonso will replace Lewis?

Tbh this is the only correct option for Mercedes, and Toto knows it.

Vettel by any chance?

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So.
Alonso will replace Lewis?

Tbh this is the only correct option for Mercedes, and Toto knows it.

Vettel by any chance?

Vettel was as slow as stroll in his last 2 seasons. The 2017-18 Seb isn't there anymore if we look at the final 3 seasons of 2020-2022

[selvam_e2002]

Ocon and Gasly would be uninspiring but fine. Ocon was between +0.2s and +0.0s slower than Alo at alpine which is very respectable and so far Gasly has been quicker despite coming into a team built around Ocon.

Russell is more than capable of leading from 2025 even if many fans are not completely sold on him. Of course he's not a 7x wdc but he was at most a tenth slower than Lewis

Mercedes need to have WDC driver in their line up to make their Brand Proud. So, I think it will be Alonso or Vettel return.

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Ocon and Gasly would be uninspiring but fine. Ocon was between +0.2s and +0.0s slower than Alo at alpine which is very respectable and so far Gasly has been quicker despite coming into a team built around Ocon.

Russell is more than capable of leading from 2025 even if many fans are not completely sold on him. Of course he's not a 7x wdc but he was at most a tenth slower than Lewis

Mercedes need to have WDC driver in their line up to make their Brand Proud. So, I think it will be Alonso or Vettel return.

Meh. It's a bit of a unique situation at the minute with only 3 world champions on the entire grid. Very unusual due to retirements and how dominant a handful of drivers have been for so long

[Hammerfist]

With Wolff being there I just don't see a way in for Alonso. He really despises Fernando and has made his feelings known on multiple occasions. Vettel has been out of the sport and was past his prime anyway, so I doubt he is even on the radar. The ideal driver for them just signed a multi year at Mclaren. I wonder if Lando is kicking himself right about now.

[Fer.Fan]

The ideal driver for them just signed a multi year at Mclaren. I wonder if Lando is kicking himself right about now.

Poor Lando, if he knew about LH move to Ferrari, he would never have signed new deal for Mclaren. Mcklaren must have known about LH deal in advance, thats why they locked Norris.

[AR3-GP]

Ocon and Gasly would be uninspiring but fine. Ocon was between +0.2s and +0.0s slower than Alo at alpine which is very respectable and so far Gasly has been quicker despite coming into a team built around Ocon.

Russell is more than capable of leading from 2025 even if many fans are not completely sold on him. Of course he's not a 7x wdc but he was at most a tenth slower than Lewis

Mercedes need to have WDC driver in their line up to make their Brand Proud. So, I think it will be Alonso or Vettel return.

Meh. It's a bit of a unique situation at the minute with only 3 world champions on the entire grid. Very unusual due to retirements and how dominant a handful of drivers have been for so long

There is zero chance that Merc is going to have a lesser known lineup of Russell and Albon or Russell and Ocon for example. That’s a Williams lineup, not a Mercedes lineup. Merc has always had a big name in their team. It’s essential for the branding.

If they did, I would worry that Merc will fall hard back into the midfield. That’s what happens with team building around drivers who lack championship pedigree. Russell is still a loose cannon.

[Chuckjr]

Vettel should be completely removed from the discussion. You may as well hire Massa.

Now, the seemingly hasty action of Lewis leaving Merc to me points to a contract date of Jan 31 being a deadline. It’s clear this has been in discussion with Ferrari for some time. A decision like this takes months to come to and finalize. Toto seems to have had no idea and it’s announced over a 10 min meeting? There’s more here than meets the eye.

For Lewis this points to lack of confidence in the new chassis and team direction. He clearly feels he has as much of a chance at risking Ferrari as he does staying at Merc. But I dont think this is about championship hopes. Honestly. I think he knows nobody is beating RB before 2026. This likely is the last contract for Lewis so likely not as much confidence in Ferrari or Merc being able to deliver a faster car than RB, but more along the lines of living a childhood dream, and closing out with a Ferrari and Merc base of fans to draw on for years after retirement. It’s a business move, not a championship move.

Its about marketing and branding options, fan base depth, and trying to take home a few red trophies to finish the trophy wall. Not a championship. It crosses a lot of “t”’s and dots a lot of “i”’s for Lewis and this seems to outweigh the damage it’s going to foster this season. Lewis is sacrificing 2024 leaving like this. Merc will go full tilt King George. Full tilt and no apologies or F’s given.

Finally, isn’t it interesting when Rosberg left, Toto found out from a drop out of nowhere phone call? Same now with Lewis leaving. Why? Why are such accomplished drivers in such a prestigious team not taking the time to at least look Toto in the eye when announcing departure? Where’s the loyalty and respect? To me it points to some kind of disconnection between these drivers and the team leadership. After ten years Lewis leaves leaves Merc like this? I dunno. Seems abrupt and maybe a bit bitter? Maybe not.

[KimiRai]

With Wolff being there I just don't see a way in for Alonso. He really despises Fernando and has made his feelings known on multiple occasions.

That's not really an argument, wounds can be healed like Alonso himself proved with Dennis. But I don't think he's going to Merc.

[Sevach]

With Wolff being there I just don't see a way in for Alonso. He really despises Fernando and has made his feelings known on multiple occasions. Vettel has been out of the sport and was past his prime anyway, so I doubt he is even on the radar. The ideal driver for them just signed a multi year at Mclaren. I wonder if Lando is kicking himself right about now.

I wouldn't count Fernando out, after he went back to work under Dennis anything is possible.

Specially now that he may feel "betrayed" by the guy he trusted.