Silly season 2024-2025

[Spoutnik]

I'm keen to see how Lewis adapts to the Ferrari given that it's been designed around Charles who we know likes a car with a strong front end whereas Lewis is the polar opposite and prefers a strong rear end. How will he convince the team to change the car to his needs rather than Charles's? I personally think Lewis will find it challenging at Ferrari for this reason as Charles is arguably a stronger driver than George, yet George has been comparable to Lewis in a team that has Lewis's fingerprints all over it and a car Lewis is more familiar with (albeit a pretty poor one). But it's definitely a gutsy move by Lewis, if anything, it shows the confidence he still has in his ability even when compared to some of the very best of the younger generation of drivers.

Russell barely saw the light last season compared to Lewis...

Excluding races where one of the drivers had crash damage or their pace was significantly slowed by being stuck in traffic (eg starting 20th etc) Russell's race and quali pace comes out essentially level with Hamilton

Russell is faster in qualy even if statistically and with the fugazi sprint races they're even.
But on race pace Lewis is way faster. I can't remember a race last season apart from Abu Dhabi (Monza ?), where Russell was faster
Even when Lewis qualifying form was poor, he was finishing races ahead of Russell

EDIT : I know these stats but for example If I look at Singapore statistically I don't have the whole picture. Russell was clearly faster on qualy. But Lewis was clearly faster on the stint which was the most important

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If you're Albon, gasly, Ocon you're clamouring for that Merc seat at this point.

What about Alonso?

[Vanja #66]

Even if Bottas said he'd very much like to welcome Audi in Sauber and be there with them for a long time, I don't think he'd complain coming back to Mercedes. On the other hand, Sainz will most likely go to Sauber a year before Audi gets there, so it could be a good fit for all...

Yesterday's big move basically left everything wide open this year, it won't be surprising to see some contracts broken and bought out too.

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Marca (not great source, but Spanish) report that a sabbatical for 2025 is not on the cards for Sainz and neither is a move to RB possible

https://www.marca.com/motor/formula1/20 ... b458a.html

[stewie325]

I'm keen to see how Lewis adapts to the Ferrari given that it's been designed around Charles who we know likes a car with a strong front end whereas Lewis is the polar opposite and prefers a strong rear end. How will he convince the team to change the car to his needs rather than Charles's? I personally think Lewis will find it challenging at Ferrari for this reason as Charles is arguably a stronger driver than George, yet George has been comparable to Lewis in a team that has Lewis's fingerprints all over it and a car Lewis is more familiar with (albeit a pretty poor one). But it's definitely a gutsy move by Lewis, if anything, it shows the confidence he still has in his ability even when compared to some of the very best of the younger generation of drivers.

Hamilton has been beaten over a season by Jenson Button, Nico Rosberg and George Russell. Without starting driver debates, factually they only have 2 WDCs between them. I think it's entirely likely that Leclerc could beat LH over a season if they drive together for a couple of years, especially as one is significantly older.
The technical adaption isn't the problem, but LH can be more error prone when not driving the best cars and being alongside a competitive teammate - he made a dozen odd errors in 2011 when Button beat him.

[Sidiamal]

I'm keen to see how Lewis adapts to the Ferrari given that it's been designed around Charles who we know likes a car with a strong front end whereas Lewis is the polar opposite and prefers a strong rear end. How will he convince the team to change the car to his needs rather than Charles's? I personally think Lewis will find it challenging at Ferrari for this reason as Charles is arguably a stronger driver than George, yet George has been comparable to Lewis in a team that has Lewis's fingerprints all over it and a car Lewis is more familiar with (albeit a pretty poor one). But it's definitely a gutsy move by Lewis, if anything, it shows the confidence he still has in his ability even when compared to some of the very best of the younger generation of drivers.

Hamilton has been beaten over a season by Jenson Button, Nico Rosberg and George Russell. Without starting driver debates, factually they only have 2 WDCs between them. I think it's entirely likely that Leclerc could beat LH over a season if they drive together for a couple of years, especially as one is significantly older.
The technical adaption isn't the problem, but LH can be more error prone when not driving the best cars and being alongside a competitive teammate - he made a dozen odd errors in 2011 when Button beat him.

This is backwards. Button beat him because he made errors, he didn't make errors because Button beat him. In terms of actual raw performance, Hamilton was superior to Rosberg, Button and Russell in all of the seasons where he lost on points.

[TimW]

I'd expect Mercedes to target Verstappen for 2026, latest 2027. Contracts can be opened. The machine like driver he has become is a better fit with Mercedes than with Red Bull anyway. Throw Antonelli in as a sweetener, younger and by then a better fit with the Red Bull brand.

Albon as a stopgap for 2025, or stay if he beats Russell.
Piastri or Norris as first driver at Red Bull

[stewie325]

I'd find this interesting:

RB - Verstappen, Piastri
Mercedes - Norris, Russell
Ferrari - Leclerc, Hamilton
McLaren - Sainz, Albon
Aston - Occon, Tsunoda
VCARB - Ricciardo, Antonelli

[chrisc90]

I'd expect Mercedes to target Verstappen for 2026, latest 2027. Contracts can be opened. The machine like driver he has become is a better fit with Mercedes than with Red Bull anyway. Throw Antonelli in as a sweetener, younger and by then a better fit with the Red Bull brand.

Albon as a stopgap for 2025, or stay if he beats Russell.
Piastri or Norris as first driver at Red Bull

Max will never jump ship. When he leaves F1, he will go run the Porsche team he was always dreaming of. I do believe plans for that are already in the pipeline

[UlleGulle]

Red Bull - Nope - to much history
Mercedes - Nope - would not trade their thought lineup
McLaren - Nope - Has their talent locked up.
Aston Stroll - not likely - Spain is to small of a market to support two drivers in the same team.
Alpine - perhaps - He's a better driver than they are a team. But that's a step back.
Williams - surely - But would he walk for a seat in a Williams?
Minardi - nope - it's about raising talent for RB.
Stakes - surely - But would he walk for a seat at the far end of the grid?
Haas - surely - But Sainz is not mad.

Several of these I disagree with. Stake would be a one year thing before Audi enters. AMR could certainly be an option, the whole "market size" is not nearly as relevant as you think, quality of driver is much more importnt. I wouldn't rule out RBR completely. Wiliams is on the rise. Alpine, Merc (though this wasn't an option in the hypothetical).

Your take is based on the idea that Sainz wouldn't take a step down from Ferrari, but I believe he would if it meant getting a higher status in a team with some potential upside. AMR, Williams, Audi, several teams fit that description.

I think we might have a misunderstanding here, and I might have been unclear. I'm not talking about good or bad options for Sainz, I'm talking about options good enough to put a gun to Vasseurs head and say "Sign before the 1st of February or else". Also, having such a hurry to force the issue before knowing how the car does in tests and if Ferrari can sort out their track operations.

And there simple isn't any.

AMR - if Fernando is still there, he will have to fight for a top dog position with the most vicious creature in the pen.
Williams - they have a upwards trajectory, true, but that's still a long way down.
Alpine - to much insecurity.
Stake - Perhaps greatness later, but one year of truddling around at the back.

I only see three explanations for this.

1. Sainz was not the only competitor for that seat, perhaps Alonso was the other bid.
2. Sainz got a top earner offer from Audi, and Ferrari really wanted him or Hamilton.
3. Sainz got insulted over Leclerc getting a multi-year extension, and overplayed his hand.

[taperoo2k]

If you're Albon, gasly, Ocon you're clamouring for that Merc seat at this point.

What about Alonso?

I think with Alonso, it depends if he thinks Mercedes are more likely to produce a car
capable of winning the drivers title than Aston Martin. Alonso hasn't got a lot to lose at
this point, so he might gamble on Mercedes.

Depends on what Toto and co want to do. I do think they were caught by surprise by Lewis
leaving for Ferrari.

[Bill_Kar]

I'm keen to see how Lewis adapts to the Ferrari given that it's been designed around Charles who we know likes a car with a strong front end whereas Lewis is the polar opposite and prefers a strong rear end. How will he convince the team to change the car to his needs rather than Charles's? I personally think Lewis will find it challenging at Ferrari for this reason as Charles is arguably a stronger driver than George, yet George has been comparable to Lewis in a team that has Lewis's fingerprints all over it and a car Lewis is more familiar with (albeit a pretty poor one). But it's definitely a gutsy move by Lewis, if anything, it shows the confidence he still has in his ability even when compared to some of the very best of the younger generation of drivers.

Hamilton has been beaten over a season by Jenson Button, Nico Rosberg and George Russell. Without starting driver debates, factually they only have 2 WDCs between them. I think it's entirely likely that Leclerc could beat LH over a season if they drive together for a couple of years, especially as one is significantly older.
The technical adaption isn't the problem, but LH can be more error prone when not driving the best cars and being alongside a competitive teammate - he made a dozen odd errors in 2011 when Button beat him.

This is backwards. Button beat him because he made errors, he didn't make errors because Button beat him. In terms of actual raw performance, Hamilton was superior to Rosberg, Button and Russell in all of the seasons where he lost on points.

That and also 2011 is like 12 years ago? Surely Hamilton was more error-prone when younger, just like Max and most of the bunch. It does somewhat correlates to car performance (having a less competitive car will push you more frequently to the edge) but drivers mature as well in the process. He barely did any mistake in the past 2 years, and you wouldn't call Mercedes a rocket.

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Barely made any mistake in the past 2 years

Surely you can't be serious..? The number of Q1/Q2 exits and crashes in the race is to my mind uncountable

Over that period he's also been indisputably a top 3 driver on the grid but near-faultless no

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Peter Windsor (someone with good connections @ Williams)

"As I understand it, [Albon] has been offered a 3-year contract to start in 2025 [at Red Bull]. So I think you're gonna see him at Red Bull alongside Max Verstappen" [...] "equally, that's as I understand it. it's not 100%; it's probably 90% I think."


From his livestream (about 40seconds in):

[AR3-GP]

Peter Windsor (someone with good connections @ Williams)

"As I understand it, [Albon] has been offered a 3-year contract to start in 2025 [at Red Bull]. So I think you're gonna see him at Red Bull alongside Max Verstappen" [...] "equally, that's as I understand it. it's not 100%; it's probably 90% I think."


From his livestream (about 40seconds in):

Wow.