Mercedes W15 Speculation Thread

[maygun]

According to a chief editor for Motorsport, the theory of him trying the W15 in the sim had nothing to do with Lewis' decision to go over to Ferrari

I doubt it... Lewis is a winner, and what a winner, one of the best. More importantly, he wants to win again. I don't believe there are no performance reasons. It doesn't necessarily mean that the W15 has to be a bad car, but the conclusion that it's not a good sign for Mercedes' future is inescapable.

At this stage, not sure how LH has been decided based on the performance factor.

I am sure that it is nearly impossible for Ferrari to promise a winning car for 2025. For 2026, it is still early to make a judgment as it would be both chassis + engine regulation change.

IMO, it is mostly a money + long-term commitment-based decision, if the rumors are true that he got close to a 100M contract, at this stage of his career it would be a dumb decision to not accept it.

[Luscion]

According to a chief editor for Motorsport, the theory of him trying the W15 in the sim had nothing to do with Lewis' decision to go over to Ferrari

I doubt it... Lewis is a winner, and what a winner, one of the best. More importantly, he wants to win again. I don't believe there are no performance reasons. It doesn't necessarily mean that the W15 has to be a bad car, but the conclusion that it's not a good sign for Mercedes' future is inescapable.

[stonehenge]

According to a chief editor for Motorsport, the theory of him trying the W15 in the sim had nothing to do with Lewis' decision to go over to Ferrari

I doubt it... Lewis is a winner, and what a winner, one of the best. More importantly, he wants to win again. I don't believe there are no performance reasons. It doesn't necessarily mean that the W15 has to be a bad car, but the conclusion that it's not a good sign for Mercedes' future is inescapable.

I think we should move on from speculating about whether Lewis' move says anything about the W15. Of course, it's possible that he's seen numbers that made him think the car will be bad. But 1. there are strong rumors that this deal has been worked out for weeks, if not months, 2. he wasn't even in the factory until this week, not in the sim until today, 3. teams generally don't know where exactly they are at this stage (see Mercedes in 2022 when they were absolutely gobsmacked by not being quick, and 4. TESTING IS IN 19 DAYS! We will find out in due time

[AR3-GP]

I doubt it... Lewis is a winner, and what a winner, one of the best. More importantly, he wants to win again. I don't believe there are no performance reasons. It doesn't necessarily mean that the W15 has to be a bad car, but the conclusion that it's not a good sign for Mercedes' future is inescapable.

I think we should move on from speculating about whether Lewis' move says anything about the W15. Of course, it's possible that he's seen numbers that made him think the car will be bad. But 1. there are strong rumors that this deal has been worked out for weeks, if not months, 2. he wasn't even in the factory until this week, not in the sim until today, 3. teams generally don't know where exactly they are at this stage (see Mercedes in 2022 when they were absolutely gobsmacked by not being quick, and 4. TESTING IS IN 19 DAYS! We will find out in due time

In 2022, Mercedes felt that their simulator car was miles clear of the competition before anyone hit the track. The teams talk amongst one another over the winter.

It's unlikely that Hamilton has zero idea of the W15s progress given how much input he had towards it's development.

[Cs98]

In 2022, Mercedes felt that their simulator car was miles clear of the competition before anyone hit the track. The teams talk amongst one another over the winter.

It's unlikely that Hamilton has zero idea of the W15s progress given how much input he had towards it's development.

Indeed. Whilst the move is not necessarily a sign that the W15 development has gone wrong, it seems extremely unlikely he would make this move now if the W15 was showing amazing progress. Might be a case of W15 moving along at a normal pace, nothing especially good or bad.

[Matt2725]

In 2022, Mercedes felt that their simulator car was miles clear of the competition before anyone hit the track. The teams talk amongst one another over the winter.

It's unlikely that Hamilton has zero idea of the W15s progress given how much input he had towards it's development.

Indeed. Whilst the move is not necessarily a sign that the W15 development has gone wrong, it seems extremely unlikely he would make this move now if the W15 was showing amazing progress. Might be a case of W15 moving along at a normal pace, nothing especially good or bad.

His move is primarily based on 2026 and beyond. There's a non-zero chance that Mercedes comprehensively beats Ferrari this season.

[f1jcw]

In 2022, Mercedes felt that their simulator car was miles clear of the competition before anyone hit the track. The teams talk amongst one another over the winter.

It's unlikely that Hamilton has zero idea of the W15s progress given how much input he had towards it's development.

Indeed. Whilst the move is not necessarily a sign that the W15 development has gone wrong, it seems extremely unlikely he would make this move now if the W15 was showing amazing progress. Might be a case of W15 moving along at a normal pace, nothing especially good or bad.

His move is primarily based on 2026 and beyond. There's a non-zero chance that Mercedes comprehensively beats Ferrari this season.

Why not, they beat them last season.

[Luscion]

Thought this was interesting from Vowles as they get their rear suspension from Merc, seems like the W15 will have a different rear suspension to that of the W14, also different transmission.

According to Vowles, the Williams FW46 will bear a different signature than its predecessors.If one or two details look familiar because they resemble a Red Bull, it is not because they have been clumsily copied. "If we have come up with a solution here and there that is reminiscent of other cars, it is because our research has shown it to be the best. In the past, we simply copied things and then tried to understand how they work."

A big secret is being kept about the rear of the car. At the front axle, the FW46 remains true to the proven pushrod concept. "We don't want to reveal what we're doing at the rear yet," regrets Vowles. This is not only due to the fact that the transmission and rear axle are sourced from Mercedes and they do not want to pre-empt their technology partner. Apparently there are far-reaching changes at the rear. Our gut feeling would suggest a switch from the pullrod to pushrod concept, as used by Red Bull, McLaren and Alpine. But perhaps Mercedes has also unearthed something completely new, such as a rocker arm solution.

Source - https://www.auto-motor-und-sport.de/for ... nterachse/

[ENGINE TUNER]

In 2022, Mercedes felt that their simulator car was miles clear of the competition before anyone hit the track. The teams talk amongst one another over the winter.

It's unlikely that Hamilton has zero idea of the W15s progress given how much input he had towards it's development.

Simulation does not equal reality.
At this point in the season, without the car touching the track, on the 2024 pirelli rubber, there is only slight correlation between how the simW15 behaves and how the real W15 will behave. Right now the simW15 behaves according to the numbers input into the system by the engineers who get those numbers from the cfd and windtunnel numbers. They could program the simW15 to have more downforce thn the RB19 while weighing 500kg, doesn't make it real. Hamilton has been around long enough to know that thesim, especially at this point of the season means extremely little.

[KimiRai]

Franco Nugnes said Mercedes would maintain pullrod at the rear, but he could be wrong I guess
(5th january)

The new Mercedes, therefore, will have the advantage of redistributing the masses and will offer a more compact rear end, without revolutions, because the suspension will maintain the pull rod scheme without copying the push rod concepts of Red Bull: the shorter gearbox will move further back the engine and, therefore, the passenger compartment, by moving the radiator outlets away from the front wheel.

https://it.motorsport.com/f1/news/f1-me ... /10562819/

[ENGINE TUNER]

Franco Nugnes said Mercedes would maintain pullrod at the rear, but he could be wrong I guess
(5th january)

The new Mercedes, therefore, will have the advantage of redistributing the masses and will offer a more compact rear end, without revolutions, because the suspension will maintain the pull rod scheme without copying the push rod concepts of Red Bull: the shorter gearbox will move further back the engine and, therefore, the passenger compartment, by moving the radiator outlets away from the front wheel.

https://it.motorsport.com/f1/news/f1-me ... /10562819/

Doesn't a shorter gearbox mean less floor area?

[Blackout]

Remember that the Merecedes chassis since 22 had two extreme characteristics:
1-it was designed for the 0-sidepod concept, so it had those huge recesses around the fuel tank area to host 'the whole" radiators'

2022 and 2023 monocoque are very similar


2-its cockpit was very far forward (and even Hamilton complained about this during the 2023 season it seems), the complete opposite of the Red Bull since 2022



* point 1 is probably related to point 2: if you squeeze your fuel tank like that, you probably need to make it longer, pushing the cockpit forward, or the engine rearwards

So since Mercedes dropped the 0-pod concept for ramp-shaped pods, and since Hamilton complained about it, the 2024 Mercedes might sport the biggest chassis design change in the field.

Or not.

[Blackout]

The zeropod needs a specific chassis and layout due to it being such a tight packaging. It also requires that bulky big gearbox.

Bulky big gearbox?

[Stu]

The zeropod needs a specific chassis and layout due to it being such a tight packaging. It also requires that bulky big gearbox.

Bulky big gearbox?

I keep reading that, but have no idea where that particular ‘fact’ originates. I’d love to know who has seen it close up with a tape measure next to every other gearbox.

[Farnborough]

Think I'll be extremely surprised if they don't get much closer to the ability of other chassis with this design.

23 appeared to start with embarrassing iteration that many tried, unsuccessfully, to explain how they'd got there, given the obvious shortcoming of 22 chassis.

I felt it was right to make those changes delivered in Monaco (it was never going to challenge much as it existed 1st half of year anyway) with the cadence of development playing out from there onwards. Quite some races before they more fully understood how to leverage this shift in suspension and aero facility, but with a clear and calmly applied pace advantage as the latter part of season came about.

That was an important development to have under their belt, really running it in race scenarios (not correlation/projection) and feeding in at the right time to make genuine impact on the W15 thought process.

It didn't deal with sidepod air intake position at all, but likely gave more insight. I'd be surprised again if these are not more contemporary in being much closer to the rest this year.

Also think if it's decent in it's performance envelope, then George is going to have a hard time containing Lewis performance