2024 Pre-Season Testing - Bahrain International Circuit, Feb 21 - 23

[CouncilorIrissa]

Bear in mind that the gap is 3 tenths with RB running their PUs in idle mode (judging by speed trap data). It's going to be more than that once they turn everything up.

[AR3-GP]

Bear in mind that the gap is 3 tenths with RB running their PUs in idle mode (judging by speed trap data). It's going to be more than that once they turn everything up.

As far as I understand, the 3 tenths estimate includes all corrections (power, tire, fuel). According to Nugnes, Ferrari engineers think the gap is 3 tenths. I doubt they would complete omit power levels from their analysis.

[morefirejules08]

Bear in mind that the gap is 3 tenths with RB running their PUs in idle mode (judging by speed trap data). It's going to be more than that once they turn everything up.

Was Redbull the only team running their PU turned down then?

[chrisc90]

Bear in mind that the gap is 3 tenths with RB running their PUs in idle mode (judging by speed trap data). It's going to be more than that once they turn everything up.

Didnt Honda have some 'reliability' upgrades over winter too?

[CouncilorIrissa]

Bear in mind that the gap is 3 tenths with RB running their PUs in idle mode (judging by speed trap data). It's going to be more than that once they turn everything up.

Was Redbull the only team running their PU turned down then?

Their speedstrap speed was suspiciously low during their long run simulations on day 3, like 7-8 kph lower.

[f1jcw]

I still can't reconcile why everyone thinks RB is the untouchable boogey man if the gap was only 2-3 tenths. With a margin like this, and the additional windtunnel time of those behind, they would be caught up by the end of the season.

Not that this will carry much weight, but from my own estimates where I performed weight and power corrections (0.5 second for 15kg delta and 2.5 tenths difference in engine modes), I arrived at a conclusion that Ferrari was right there on pace with RB at the beginning of the stint. However I couldn't predict RB's tire degradation accurately because I could not determine a suitable degradation correction factor for the lighter fuel load of Verstappen's test stints on Friday.

Even if Merc/Ferrari are winning late in the season there won't be a title fight.

A 2-3 tenths margin is in the window where setup tolerances and execution on each weekend would allow the others to actually fight for the win. There were several weekends last year where RB was far from ideal and had their advantage only been 2-3 tenths on a circuit that suited them, the others would have won multiple races on the many circuits that didn't suit RB, but with so much margin last year didn't actually matter.

The season would be a lot more interesting, and a lot better than the doom and gloom that is being predicted.

I agree with you for once!

A gap of 2-3 tenths is everything you say it as, it would come down to setup, particular driver charateristics, luck, etc.
But... I doubt the gap is as small as that.

[f1isgood]

I still can't reconcile why everyone thinks RB is the untouchable boogey man if the gap was only 2-3 tenths. With a margin like this, and the additional windtunnel time of those behind, they would be caught up by the end of the season.

Not that this will carry much weight, but from my own estimates where I performed weight and power corrections (0.5 second for 15kg delta and 2.5 tenths difference in engine modes), I arrived at a conclusion that Ferrari was right there on pace with RB at the beginning of the stint. However I couldn't predict RB's tire degradation accurately because I could not determine a suitable degradation correction factor for the lighter fuel load of Verstappen's test stints on Friday.

3 tenths over 50 laps is 15 seconds. It is not a gap that is enough for others to compete for a title. And this is not even Red Bull's proper car.

Sure but people are making it seem like this season will be even worse than last. RB's closest competitor was 40 seconds back in Bahrain last year and likely would have been lapped if RB pushed and didn't have to turn down the PUs. So 3 tenths is leagues better than last year and with the change to the DRS regulations for this season, 3 tenths margin won't be enough to clear anyone.

They have upgrades for Imola and Suzuka coming up soon.

So does everyone else, with the benefit of more windtunnel time.

But has the benefit of more wind tunnel time actually shown so far, for cars that have been close to RB at many points? It hasn't made a significant difference so far in my view, although I admit it could change things significantly this year if Red Bull are in "catchable" territory of a couple of tenths.

[AR3-GP]

3 tenths over 50 laps is 15 seconds. It is not a gap that is enough for others to compete for a title. And this is not even Red Bull's proper car.

Sure but people are making it seem like this season will be even worse than last. RB's closest competitor was 40 seconds back in Bahrain last year and likely would have been lapped if RB pushed and didn't have to turn down the PUs. So 3 tenths is leagues better than last year and with the change to the DRS regulations for this season, 3 tenths margin won't be enough to clear anyone.

They have upgrades for Imola and Suzuka coming up soon.

So does everyone else, with the benefit of more windtunnel time.

But has the benefit of more wind tunnel time actually shown so far, for cars that have been close to RB at many points? It hasn't made a significant difference so far in my view, although I admit it could change things significantly this year if Red Bull are in "catchable" territory of a couple of tenths.

Would it be better for RB to have the extra windtunnel?

-that's how you know it's benefitting the others.

[f1isgood]

Sure but people are making it seem like this season will be even worse than last. RB's closest competitor was 40 seconds back in Bahrain last year and likely would have been lapped if RB pushed and didn't have to turn down the PUs. So 3 tenths is leagues better than last year and with the change to the DRS regulations for this season, 3 tenths margin won't be enough to clear anyone.




So does everyone else, with the benefit of more windtunnel time.

But has the benefit of more wind tunnel time actually shown so far, for cars that have been close to RB at many points? It hasn't made a significant difference so far in my view, although I admit it could change things significantly this year if Red Bull are in "catchable" territory of a couple of tenths.

Would it be better for RB to have the extra windtunnel time?

-that's how you know it's benefitting the others.

Well played, I think it would at best help them marginally -- maybe a tenth or so. Nothing more. But then yes, the gap becomes a tenth closer to half a second and provides RB a tenth worth of tolerance cushion and the cycle continues lol.

[Vanja #66]

These traces reveal a few very interesting things about RB20 relative to the field. There's a misconception that Max was running highly detuned PU in his quasi-race-sims, but this is not the case. There's also an interesting thing happening in T12, but only in these high-fuel runs. I've compared early laps of C3 stints of these 5 drivers, since this is the best we got. Max and Alonso were always running to a delta and always started on same fuel, though Max had lower degradation and was overall faster. It does seem these runs did not start at 100kg of fuel. If Max did, he's got at least 7-8 tenths a lap over Ferrari and others in the race.



Max started C3 stint with top speed at 295kmh, ending usually around 297-298kmh. His C1/2 stints started at 297 and sometimes went up to 299kmh. No detuning there. Leclerc had a similar pattern, but started with 298-299kmh and ended stints up to 305kmh. Alonso and Piastri started a bit slower than Max, around 293kmh and also followed this same pattern. Albon beat them all and reached typically well above 300kmh all the time. All of these patterns were quite typical in races in 2023, RB was usually just a bit slower on top speed than Ferrari (no DRS), while Aston and McLaren were slower than RB. Williams was a rocket all the time.

As for T12, the interesting thing there is that not one of other 4 drivers lost time in T12 on their fast/low-fuel C3 runs. Leclerc and Piastri were a tiny bit quicker there in fact. However, in the race Max and Albon (!) were quite a bit quicker than others there. Leclerc lost 3-4 tenths to Max every lap, Piastri and Alonso about the same. It's quite possible this is a setup for low-deg they ran and/or, since there's a local elevation around T12 apex and RB and Williams did not worry too much about plank wear so they did not slow down there.

For what it's worth, Max was now a bit quicker there than 2023 Race, while Leclerc was a lot slower now in testing than he was in the race with a very tough SF-23 to handle. So it's a very curious thing going on there.

[organic]

These traces reveal a few very interesting things about RB20 relative to the field. There's a misconception that Max was running highly detuned PU in his quasi-race-sims, but this is not the case. There's also an interesting thing happening in T12, but only in these high-fuel runs. I've compared early laps of C3 stints of these 5 drivers, since this is the best we got. Max and Alonso were always running to a delta and always started on same fuel, though Max had lower degradation and was overall faster. It does seem these runs did not start at 100kg of fuel. If Max did, he's got at least 7-8 tenths a lap over Ferrari and others in the race.

https://i.ibb.co/wWG11QC/2024-bahrain-day3.jpg

Max started C3 stint with top speed at 295kmh, ending usually around 297-298kmh. His C1/2 stints started at 297 and sometimes went up to 299kmh. No detuning there. Leclerc had a similar pattern, but started with 298-299kmh and ended stints up to 305kmh. Alonso and Piastri started a bit slower than Max, around 293kmh and also followed this same pattern. Albon beat them all and reached typically well above 300kmh all the time. All of these patterns were quite typical in races in 2023, RB was usually just a bit slower on top speed than Ferrari (no DRS), while Aston and McLaren were slower than RB. Williams was a rocket all the time.

As for T12, the interesting thing there is that not one of other 4 drivers lost time in T12 on their fast/low-fuel C3 runs. Leclerc and Piastri were a tiny bit quicker there in fact. However, in the race Max and Albon (!) were quite a bit quicker than others there. Leclerc lost 3-4 tenths to Max every lap, Piastri and Alonso about the same. It's quite possible this is a setup for low-deg they ran and/or, since there's a local elevation around T12 apex and RB and Williams did not worry too much about plank wear so they did not slow down there.

For what it's worth, Max was now a bit quicker there than 2023 Race, while Leclerc was a lot slower now in testing than he was in the race with a very tough SF-23 to handle. So it's a very curious thing going on there.

Can't agree as I don't believe your numbers to be accurate

Heres some direct comparisons with data from multiple laps. Rather than general statements

Max c3 run


Leclerc c3 run (more fuel, so should have less top speed)



This goes far beyond what the general DRS closed trend of RB Vs Ferrari was last year. That's an average of +10-15kph advantage to Leclerc which is not reality. Formu1a Uno also reported that Verstappen ran very low on his engine mode on the high fuel runs. Additionally RB with DRS closed have a rather efficient car this year on the medium df: the DRS flap is less cranked than the RB19 and is backed off at the edges.

Lec 2nd stint Vs ver 2nd stint (c1)

Ver C1



Lec C1



Overall indications point to Lec using the 2nd highest engine mode for this long run whereas Max was on the 3rd highest mode.

It wasn't a full -> empty tank race simulation for Max as is obvious from the laptimes on each stint. They refuelled him at the end of each stint

[Xyz22]

These traces reveal a few very interesting things about RB20 relative to the field. There's a misconception that Max was running highly detuned PU in his quasi-race-sims, but this is not the case. There's also an interesting thing happening in T12, but only in these high-fuel runs. I've compared early laps of C3 stints of these 5 drivers, since this is the best we got. Max and Alonso were always running to a delta and always started on same fuel, though Max had lower degradation and was overall faster. It does seem these runs did not start at 100kg of fuel. If Max did, he's got at least 7-8 tenths a lap over Ferrari and others in the race.

https://i.ibb.co/wWG11QC/2024-bahrain-day3.jpg

Max started C3 stint with top speed at 295kmh, ending usually around 297-298kmh. His C1/2 stints started at 297 and sometimes went up to 299kmh. No detuning there. Leclerc had a similar pattern, but started with 298-299kmh and ended stints up to 305kmh. Alonso and Piastri started a bit slower than Max, around 293kmh and also followed this same pattern. Albon beat them all and reached typically well above 300kmh all the time. All of these patterns were quite typical in races in 2023, RB was usually just a bit slower on top speed than Ferrari (no DRS), while Aston and McLaren were slower than RB. Williams was a rocket all the time.

As for T12, the interesting thing there is that not one of other 4 drivers lost time in T12 on their fast/low-fuel C3 runs. Leclerc and Piastri were a tiny bit quicker there in fact. However, in the race Max and Albon (!) were quite a bit quicker than others there. Leclerc lost 3-4 tenths to Max every lap, Piastri and Alonso about the same. It's quite possible this is a setup for low-deg they ran and/or, since there's a local elevation around T12 apex and RB and Williams did not worry too much about plank wear so they did not slow down there.

For what it's worth, Max was now a bit quicker there than 2023 Race, while Leclerc was a lot slower now in testing than he was in the race with a very tough SF-23 to handle. So it's a very curious thing going on there.

Max stints were not on 100kg. The only info we have comes from Formu1a.uno which reported 85kg, but i wouldn't take it for granted.

[Vanja #66]

Can't agree as I don't believe your numbers to be accurate

Reaching Speed Trap line at different rate and reaching actual Top Speed are two different things. ST line is most often conservative and cars always keep accelerating beyond it, so it's not a reliable reference

[morefirejules08]

Bear in mind that the gap is 3 tenths with RB running their PUs in idle mode (judging by speed trap data). It's going to be more than that once they turn everything up.

Was Redbull the only team running their PU turned down then?

Their speedstrap speed was suspiciously low during their long run simulations on day 3, like 7-8 kph lower.

That’s not what I asked

[organic]

Reaching Speed Trap line at different rate and reaching actual Top Speed are two different things. ST line is most often conservative and cars always keep accelerating beyond it, so it's not a reliable reference

I cant find any instances where the speedtrap values don't correlate with topspeed