2024 pecking order predictions

[dialtone]

Updated for race pace!!! Lots of number crunching on my own.

Red Bull
Mercedes (+0.6)
Aston (+0.8 )
Ferrari (+1.1)
McLaren (+1.6)

- Degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.
- Either McLaren is running last year's car or carried some severe problem in testing or totally screwed. Some of their long stints are really promising, but some are horrible. Piastri's race simulation really puts them in difficult position.

You have to sanity check the numbers though… even with numbers being crunched these don’t reflect much of anything, not even Aston or Mercedes think this is true. And what would be the race pace of the winners if Ferrari, who ran a 2s per lap faster race sim than last year, is 1.1s behind redbull? Are they going to lap in 1:31s at the end of the race? C’mon now.

[LM10]

Updated for race pace!!! Lots of number crunching on my own.

Red Bull
Mercedes (+0.6)
Aston (+0.8 )
Ferrari (+1.1)
McLaren (+1.6)

- Degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.
- Either McLaren is running last year's car or carried some severe problem in testing or totally screwed. Some of their long stints are really promising, but some are horrible. Piastri's race simulation really puts them in difficult position.

I'd love to see the numbers backing up your prediction of Ferrari being 1.1 seconds behind. Please also add the data showing that degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.

[organic]

Updated for race pace!!! Lots of number crunching on my own.

Red Bull
Mercedes (+0.6)
Aston (+0.8 )
Ferrari (+1.1)
McLaren (+1.6)

- Degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.
- Either McLaren is running last year's car or carried some severe problem in testing or totally screwed. Some of their long stints are really promising, but some are horrible. Piastri's race simulation really puts them in difficult position.

I'd love to see the numbers backing up your prediction of Ferrari being 1.1 seconds behind. Please also add the data showing that degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.

I mean the stints of Leclerc in his race sim did show considerable degradation, but they were also very fast so that's to be expected. They were trying to induce it by having Leclerc push. Piastri ended his C3 and C1 stints lapping faster than he began the stint. So did Verstappen on all 3 tyres of his long runs. Leclerc ended his stints >1s slower than he began them. But that's because the programs were not the same

Ultimately we don't know what everyone else's degradation will actually be yet. This year testing is different to last year in the sense that we had far more comparable running in 2023 testing

I don't think everyone should be expected to justify their pecking order predictions with data here. It's a light-hearted thread, or at least has been in the past

[dialtone]

Updated for race pace!!! Lots of number crunching on my own.

Red Bull
Mercedes (+0.6)
Aston (+0.8 )
Ferrari (+1.1)
McLaren (+1.6)

- Degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.
- Either McLaren is running last year's car or carried some severe problem in testing or totally screwed. Some of their long stints are really promising, but some are horrible. Piastri's race simulation really puts them in difficult position.

I'd love to see the numbers backing up your prediction of Ferrari being 1.1 seconds behind. Please also add the data showing that degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.

I mean the stints of Leclerc in his race sim did show considerable degradation, but they were also very fast so that's to be expected. They were trying to induce it by having Leclerc push. Piastri ended his C3 and C1 stints lapping faster than he began the stint. So did Verstappen on all 3 tyres of his long runs. Leclerc ended his stints >1s slower than he began them. But that's because the programs were not the same

Ultimately we don't know what everyone else's degradation will actually be yet. This year testing is different to last year in the sense that we had far more comparable running in 2023 testing

I don't think everyone should be expected to justify their pecking order predictions with data here. It's a light-hearted thread, or at least has been in the past

Those laps on stint 1 for LEC were 0.5 faster than last year’s Max race and similar degradation going for 18 laps instead of 13.

That’s not similar degradation to last year, that’s really good.

[stonehenge]

One thing to keep in mind: 2023 was an awful year in terms of a development race. Mercedes and Ferrari started with a flawed concept that fundamentally restricted their ability to bring upgrades to the car. AMR brought upgrades that they thought would help them challenge for wins, but they completely backfired, and Red Bull didn't bring many upgrades because they didn't need to. It was really only toward the end of the season that McLaren started catching up with their upgrades and made it a little interesting, but by then it was too late for any more significant upgrades. That is to say, last season was uniquely boring not just because Red Bull was better than everyone, but because they had to do very little to remain in front.

This year should be very different. Mercedes and Ferrari both feel like they have a good platform that they can build on, and will probably bring a number of significant upgrades, fairly early as well. Not sure where McLaren stands right now, but they seem excited for what they have in the pipeline. As for Aston Martin, I guess we'll see. All that means that Red Bull will also need to develop aggressively to stay in front, which should make for a much more entertaining season, *even if Red Bull still wins the championships*.

[ali623]

RBR

Ferrari/Mercedes (+0.3)

Aston Martin (+0.6)

McLaren/RB (+1)

Williams (+1.2)

Alpine/Sauber/Haas (+1.5)

[mendis]

Updated for race pace!!! Lots of number crunching on my own.

Red Bull
Mercedes (+0.6)
Aston (+0.8 )
Ferrari (+1.1)
McLaren (+1.6)

- Degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.
- Either McLaren is running last year's car or carried some severe problem in testing or totally screwed. Some of their long stints are really promising, but some are horrible. Piastri's race simulation really puts them in difficult position.

You have to sanity check the numbers though… even with numbers being crunched these don’t reflect much of anything, not even Aston or Mercedes think this is true. And what would be the race pace of the winners if Ferrari, who ran a 2s per lap faster race sim than last year, is 1.1s behind redbull? Are they going to lap in 1:31s at the end of the race? C’mon now.

I understand that I may go completely wrong in some of the assumptions I made while looking at the data and the results in a few days might surprise me. I will be happy if the teams are closer and competing.

[Sevach]

One thing to keep in mind: 2023 was an awful year in terms of a development race. Mercedes and Ferrari started with a flawed concept that fundamentally restricted their ability to bring upgrades to the car. AMR brought upgrades that they thought would help them challenge for wins, but they completely backfired, and Red Bull didn't bring many upgrades because they didn't need to. It was really only toward the end of the season that McLaren started catching up with their upgrades and made it a little interesting, but by then it was too late for any more significant upgrades. That is to say, last season was uniquely boring not just because Red Bull was better than everyone, but because they had to do very little to remain in front.

This year should be very different. Mercedes and Ferrari both feel like they have a good platform that they can build on, and will probably bring a number of significant upgrades, fairly early as well. Not sure where McLaren stands right now, but they seem excited for what they have in the pipeline. As for Aston Martin, I guess we'll see. All that means that Red Bull will also need to develop aggressively to stay in front, which should make for a much more entertaining season, *even if Red Bull still wins the championships*.

I agree with this view, i don't think the Abu Dhabi RB19 was much faster than the car at Miami.

[deadhead]

[mendis]

Updated for race pace!!! Lots of number crunching on my own.

Red Bull
Mercedes (+0.6)
Aston (+0.8 )
Ferrari (+1.1)
McLaren (+1.6)

- Degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.
- Either McLaren is running last year's car or carried some severe problem in testing or totally screwed. Some of their long stints are really promising, but some are horrible. Piastri's race simulation really puts them in difficult position.

I'd love to see the numbers backing up your prediction of Ferrari being 1.1 seconds behind. Please also add the data showing that degradation is still a problem for Ferrari.

OK here we go. I have made some assumptions based on lap times and speed trap for the approximate fuel level. If that is wrong, get your own idea. Otherwise also, just a helpful view.

This is for Mercedes and I am working on Ferrari, Red Bull and AM.

*Red - outlier and eliminated from consideration.
Morning Session is 0:00:01.000 to 04:00:00.00
Afternoon Session is from 04:00:01.000 to 09:00:00.000



Here is one for Red Bull.

[nico5]

Piastri ended his C3 and C1 stints lapping faster than he began the stint. So did Verstappen on all 3 tyres of his long runs. Leclerc ended his stints >1s slower than he began them.

I mean, of course if you run to a target time which is massively off your potential you're gonna be able to maintain it. That doesn't mean you wouldn't be degrading if you were going for it. Thermal deg in Bahrain is always gonna be a thing when you're going for it. It was so with 600kg cars, let alone 800kg+full tank ones.

[organic]

Piastri ended his C3 and C1 stints lapping faster than he began the stint. So did Verstappen on all 3 tyres of his long runs. Leclerc ended his stints >1s slower than he began them.

I mean, of course if you run to a target time which is massively off your potential you're gonna be able to maintain it. That doesn't mean you wouldn't be degrading if you were going for it. Thermal deg in Bahrain is always gonna be a thing when you're going for it. It was so with 600kg cars, let alone 800kg+full tank ones.

Yes so we don't really know who has good and who has bad tyre deg after this preseason. You can look at 2023 testing and see things clearly: Ferrari worst, then Merc, then amr then RB and that trend played out in the grand prix as well

[KimiRai]

RB
-
Ferrari
McLaren
Merc/Aston
-
Alpine/Toro Rosso
Williams
Sauber
-
Haas

After seeing testing , I would change it to:

Bahrain Qualy
RBR (+0.0)
Ferrari (+0.25)
Mercedes (+0.4)
McLaren (+0.45)
Aston (+0.65)
Toro Rosso (+0.75)

Bahrain Race
RBR (+0.0)
Ferrari (+0.4)
Mercedes (+0.45)
McLaren (+0.55)
Aston (+0.6)
Toro Rosso (+0.8 )

[PlatinumZealot]

RedBull is more like 8 tenths ahead in the hands of Max. I really can't ever see him being troubled or even pressured mid-race...

We have seen it only twice!! Last year. If not three times.

[f1isgood]

RB
-
Ferrari
McLaren
Merc/Aston
-
Alpine/Toro Rosso
Williams
Sauber
-
Haas

After seeing testing , I would change it to:

Bahrain Qualy
RBR (+0.0)
Ferrari (+0.25)
Mercedes (+0.4)
McLaren (+0.45)
Aston (+0.65)
Toro Rosso (+0.75)

Bahrain Race
RBR (+0.0)
Ferrari (+0.4)
Mercedes (+0.45)
McLaren (+0.55)
Aston (+0.6)
Toro Rosso (+0.8 )

This is quite a good prediction for the race.