2024 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

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Hamilton has much more inside info about Merc and he just signaled that he doesn't believe they would have a realistic chance winning the WDC in near future.
He wouldn't have left if he saw good vibes for 2026.

Indeed. If max leaves RB for Merc however then that gives us an early indication of the 2026 pecking order perhaps?

[Watto]

Hamilton has much more inside info about Merc and he just signaled that he doesn't believe they would have a realistic chance winning the WDC in near future.
He wouldn't have left if he saw good vibes for 2026.

Indeed. If max leaves RB for Merc however then that gives us an early indication of the 2026 pecking order perhaps?

I think it would no doubt if he was to leave for Mercedes. But think they also have to show they can' develop a decent car to convince him too.


If Honda never withdrew and did their U turn there is not a change RB would have gone down this path.so no doubt there is some risk involved.

[CHT]

Hamilton has much more inside info about Merc and he just signaled that he doesn't believe they would have a realistic chance winning the WDC in near future.
He wouldn't have left if he saw good vibes for 2026.

Indeed. If max leaves RB for Merc however then that gives us an early indication of the 2026 pecking order perhaps?

I think it would no doubt if he was to leave for Mercedes. But think they also have to show they can' develop a decent car to convince him too.


If Honda never withdrew and did their U turn there is not a change RB would have gone down this path.so no doubt there is some risk involved.

F1 drivers doesn't really have team loyalty, they will drive for whichever team that can offer them a winning car.
So Max will only leave when RBR fail to deliver the car.

2026 is a bit like a lottery for everyone and no one know for sure which team is going to get it right. As we have seen in the past 15 to 20 years, whenever there is a major rule change, 1 team will usually dominate for consecutive years.

So for Max he is likely to stay put at RBR until 2026 to have a clearer pictures of the pecking order before deciding on his future. He is the hottest driver on the grid right now, I am sure many top teams will make room for him whenever he is available.

[Vanja #66]

Hamilton has much more inside info about Merc and he just signaled that he doesn't believe they would have a realistic chance winning the WDC in near future.
He wouldn't have left if he saw good vibes for 2026.

That's a valid point. However, Hamilton also needs to reinvigorate himself and switching teams always gives a boost - even when switching to a worse team drivers know they need to make themselves visible again so they push to the limit in the early period. I think this is a big part of him switching, though Mercedes' ongoing struggles with understanding new floors do not inspire confidence for 2026 chassis.

What we do know is Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes have an advantage over RBPT, Audi and Alpine/Renault with current PUs and this advantage will transfer to 2026 PUs. Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes making a huge design error is practically just as (un)likely as RBPT, Audi and Alpine finding some incredible performance advantage by 2026.

[CHT]

Hamilton has much more inside info about Merc and he just signaled that he doesn't believe they would have a realistic chance winning the WDC in near future.
He wouldn't have left if he saw good vibes for 2026.

That's a valid point. However, Hamilton also needs to reinvigorate himself and switching teams always gives a boost - even when switching to a worse team drivers know they need to make themselves visible again so they push to the limit in the early period. I think this is a big part of him switching, though Mercedes' ongoing struggles with understanding new floors do not inspire confidence for 2026 chassis.

What we do know is Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes have an advantage over RBPT, Audi and Alpine/Renault with current PUs and this advantage will transfer to 2026 PUs. Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes making a huge design error is practically just as (un)likely as RBPT, Audi and Alpine finding some incredible performance advantage by 2026.

Honda and Ferrari PU do have slight advantage over Merc under the current regulation.
And I dont think anyone who have expected that to happen back in 2020 or 2021.

The 2026 engine is something that is completely new to Ferrari, Honda and Merc, so its hard to tell for sure which team will get it right. Personally I will not write off any team at this staage because not too long ago Redbull was winning Championship with Renault engine, while Honda was a disaster with Mclaren

[basti313]

Hamilton has much more inside info about Merc and he just signaled that he doesn't believe they would have a realistic chance winning the WDC in near future.
He wouldn't have left if he saw good vibes for 2026.

That's a valid point. However, Hamilton also needs to reinvigorate himself and switching teams always gives a boost - even when switching to a worse team drivers know they need to make themselves visible again so they push to the limit in the early period. I think this is a big part of him switching, though Mercedes' ongoing struggles with understanding new floors do not inspire confidence for 2026 chassis.

What we do know is Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes have an advantage over RBPT, Audi and Alpine/Renault with current PUs and this advantage will transfer to 2026 PUs. Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes making a huge design error is practically just as (un)likely as RBPT, Audi and Alpine finding some incredible performance advantage by 2026.

Honda and Ferrari PU do have slight advantage over Merc under the current regulation.
And I dont think anyone who have expected that to happen back in 2020 or 2021.

The 2026 engine is something that is completely new to Ferrari, Honda and Merc, so its hard to tell for sure which team will get it right. Personally I will not write off any team at this staage because not too long ago Redbull was winning Championship with Renault engine, while Honda was a disaster with Mclaren

I do not think advantages amongst the current manufacturers except Renault are provable or do tell something.
I think the clear advantage comes from structures in manufacturing and the feedback from track on wear and modes.
Of course, the new manufacturers need to build these structures as they are not building an engine a week at the moment. The new manufacturers might be well prepared and brain drained the old ones for the test cylinder at the moment. But as soon as they need to ramp the game to a full engine, they will struggle where the old guys will not struggle.

Second issue is the integration, what made Merc so extremely strong...you simply need to have the team and engine workshop close and under the same control. That leaves Ferrari and Merc in the pool as RBPT falls under the first issue.

Third issue is money. Currently I can only see RBPT and Ferrari operating basically on unlimited funds. So this moves up RBPT again...

So generally...Ferrari is the save bet just like Merc was in 2012. But RedBull is surely not far away.

[FW17]

What we do know is Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes have an advantage over RBPT, Audi and Alpine/Renault with current PUs and this advantage will transfer to 2026 PUs. Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes making a huge design error is practically just as (un)likely as RBPT, Audi and Alpine finding some incredible performance advantage by 2026.

RBPT is mostly made up of engineers who worked on the current Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes powertrains, so they cannot be in the boat as Audi

[dia6olo]

What we do know is Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes have an advantage over RBPT, Audi and Alpine/Renault with current PUs and this advantage will transfer to 2026 PUs. Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes making a huge design error is practically just as (un)likely as RBPT, Audi and Alpine finding some incredible performance advantage by 2026.

RBPT is mostly made up of engineers who worked on the current Honda, Ferrari and Mercedes powertrains, so they cannot be in the boat as Audi

But often times it's not about the quality of the individuals but about how well they operate within a group.
Red Bull are arguably the best organised team, at least as far as the car side of things is concerned.
I'm not sure you can assume that, that will also be the case with the PU regardless of the quality of the individuals.
The PU division is a new game for them even if it isn't for the individuals...

[Dunlay]

Second issue is the integration, what made Merc so extremely strong...you simply need to have the team and engine workshop close and under the same control. That leaves Ferrari and Merc in the pool as RBPT falls under the first issue.

Ferrari and RBPT have everything under one roof and under same leadership. Mercedes on the other hand is split between Brackley and Bricksworth. They are also two different organizations with Daimler having full control of Bricksworth and part control in Brackley, which is owned by 3 different entities.

[ringo]

with 50% of the power coming from Electrics, Honda and Ferrari have the advantage. Mercedes seem to be the weaker of the top 3 when it comes to electrical power and energy.

Mattia Binotto is CEO of Texa E-powertrains. I do not think this is a coincidence. He could be working on the electrical half of the Ferrari 2026 power unit.

[Seanspeed]

Second issue is the integration, what made Merc so extremely strong...you simply need to have the team and engine workshop close and under the same control. That leaves Ferrari and Merc in the pool as RBPT falls under the first issue.

Ferrari and RBPT have everything under one roof and under same leadership. Mercedes on the other hand is split between Brackley and Bricksworth. They are also two different organizations with Daimler having full control of Bricksworth and part control in Brackley, which is owned by 3 different entities.

Well Mercedes overall have had the best engines over the past two decades, so I dont think this division has really been any hindrance. I doubt it's gonna come down to umbrella structures, and moreso specific engineering team talents and resources.

[KimiRai]

Piola says that Newey prefers AMR to Ferrari

[basti313]

Second issue is the integration, what made Merc so extremely strong...you simply need to have the team and engine workshop close and under the same control. That leaves Ferrari and Merc in the pool as RBPT falls under the first issue.

Ferrari and RBPT have everything under one roof and under same leadership. Mercedes on the other hand is split between Brackley and Bricksworth. They are also two different organizations with Daimler having full control of Bricksworth and part control in Brackley, which is owned by 3 different entities.

That is not an issue. As most team member do not live at the factory, I even heard that many live in Northampton (also RB), the distance for a meeting is always the same. And the major issue is if your engine manufacturer does not even have the same time zone...
Plus the question is even how you transfer CAD data...I bet this is easy and organized at RB Merc and Fer...while getting data from Honda should be the same fun I have with my suppliers...

[ispano6]

Second issue is the integration, what made Merc so extremely strong...you simply need to have the team and engine workshop close and under the same control. That leaves Ferrari and Merc in the pool as RBPT falls under the first issue.

Ferrari and RBPT have everything under one roof and under same leadership. Mercedes on the other hand is split between Brackley and Bricksworth. They are also two different organizations with Daimler having full control of Bricksworth and part control in Brackley, which is owned by 3 different entities.

That is not an issue. As most team member do not live at the factory, I even heard that many live in Northampton (also RB), the distance for a meeting is always the same. And the major issue is if your engine manufacturer does not even have the same time zone...
Plus the question is even how you transfer CAD data...I bet this is easy and organized at RB Merc and Fer...while getting data from Honda should be the same fun I have with my suppliers...

You infer that Honda and similar suppliers are difficult to get transfers of CAD data because of? And how is that an issue at RBPT currently?

[langedweil]

Piola says that Newey prefers AMR to Ferrari

That's what I'd say as well .. but I'm no Piola