2024 pecking order predictions

[KimiRai]

This is quite a good prediction for the race.

Really? I do not see it that way it was... meh

[chrisc90]

Interesting reading the first few pages of this topic again after 7 races in.

[PlatinumZealot]

Aston has fallen behind Mercedes. Haas and RB knocking on their doors now.

Race pace my timing
RedBull + 0.0
McLaren + 0.2
Ferrari + 0.3
Mercedes + 0.5
Aston Martin + 0.7
RB + 0.8
Haas + 0.9
Williams + 1.0
Alpine + 1.2
Sauber +1.3

[bananapeel23]

Aston has fallen behind Mercedes. Haas and RB knocking on their doors now.

Race pace my timing
RedBull + 0.0
McLaren + 0.2
Ferrari + 0.3
Mercedes + 0.5
Aston Martin + 0.7
RB + 0.8
Haas + 0.9
Williams + 1.0
Alpine + 1.2
Sauber +1.3

Both of the last two races had the best Ferrari or McLaren driver faster than, or within 1.5 tenths of Red Bull. McLaren is certainly not +0.2 if the last 2 races are anything to go by. Hell, even Ferrari is closer than that. These last two races really seem to suggest that all of the top 3 teams are so close together that they any of them could win if the track suits them even slightly better than the competition or a driver finds really good form at a certain track.

Red Bull + 0.0
McLaren + 0.03
Ferrari + 0.125

Assuming the last 2 races are a fluke you might get something closer to what you're suggesting, but then you would also need Ferrari ahead of McLaren.

[Silent Storm]

Closer than anyone imagined...

[Sieper]

Max already has been very unlucky with an exploding rear brakedrum causing a DNF. Leclerc could at least still finish the race where he had brake issues.

[PlatinumZealot]

Closer than anyone imagined...

There are effectively four formulas that's why. Formula 1 (RedBull during the first six races), Formula 1.5 - McLaren and Ferrari. Formula 2 (Mercedes, Aston, RB, Haas) and Formula 3... the rest. Because of this all of the top points are shared between the same top 3 teams and the rest are more of a volatile finishing order.

[haza]

Early but the seasons finished so let’s go bear in my mind my predictions for last season were spot on (McLaren mid season jump Aston strong out the gate)

2024 F1 predictions (wrote 25th November 2023 after Abu Dhabi quali)

Constructors:

McLaren
Redbull
Mercedes
Ferrari
Alpha tauri
Aston Martin
Williams
Alpine
Haas
Sauber

Drivers (top 10)

Norris
Verstappen
Hamilton
Piastri
Perez
Leclerc
Russel
Sainz
Alonso
Ricciardo


Redbull and McLaren very evenly matched at the start of the season on pace with it come down to driver skill making the difference. McLaren out-develop redbull and build a gap later in the year (more wind tunnel and prize money)

Mercedes bring a whole new concept not as quick as McLaren or redbull at the start of the year but in the right conditions can challenge them. By end of the year they’ve understood their car an they are challenging red bull for second place in the constructors only missing out by a handful of points

Alpha tauri (or whatever they decide to be called) will continue to take as much as they can from redbull this will give them a handy race craft to challenge the likes of Ferrari on the right day

Ferrari has a decent enough race car at the beginning of the season but leclerc and sainz will come to blows on multiple occasions costing the team valuable points in the constructors

Aston Martin will struggle at the beginning of the season only scoring a few points. A mid season upgrade helps them score regular points but not enough to catch alpha tauri

Summer break Is nearly over my predictions aren’t a million miles away so far what does everyone think for the rest of the season

[PlatinumZealot]

How can a team of Redbull's quality and reputation be totally dominant for the first 8 races and then fall close to the midfield in the follwing eight races?

[bananapeel23]

How can a team of Redbull's quality and reputation be totally dominant for the first 8 races and then fall close to the midfield in the follwing eight races?

Close to the midfield is a gross exaggeration. At no point has Red Bull truly been in the mix with the midfield. Monza was the one instance of them being the clear 4th best team, but given the fact that every team in the top 4 has won at least 3 races, with all those teams winning once in the last 3 races.

Red Bull is anywhere from 2nd to 4th best at any given track, at worst about 3 tenths behind the leader, usually much, much less. They can mix with any other team in the top 4 on most weekends. Red Bull is still well above the midfield, just not the best.

Monza was the big outlier, mostly because they didn't bringa true Monza spec wing, but they were still well clear of Albon in 9th and Verstappen was in the fight for a front row start until he bottled Parabolica in Q3.

[continuum16]

Fun looking back at this thread after 20/24 races and seeing how we were all wrong (me included). Right now, with no data just vibes and observation, I’d have to say that on pace alone it looks like:

McLaren/Ferrari
Max

Mercedes

Haas/Checo
RB
Williams/Alpine/Aston

Sauber

We were all fooled (by Haas) into thinking Haas didn’t know what they were doing, and fooled (by Aston’s payroll) into thinking Aston did.

Other than that, most of us were fairly close. Next year will probably be easier to speculate with a lot of the cars being carryovers (I would think).

[Timtim99]

Most of the so called expert here are no expert, so I am not surprised with all the predictions made earlier in the season.they often forget that it’s motor sport where things can change. When Ferrari TP mentioned that his team will make progress throughout the season, I wasn’t surprised. I am looking forward to the final year of the current regulations and I hope Ferrari can provide what we have waited so long for; a winning car for both driver and constructor championship.
Lastly, the biased, Sky sports UK was talking as if Redbull will walk all over every team again.