Emag wrote: ↑24 May 2024, 00:42
LionsHeart wrote: ↑24 May 2024, 00:03
Emag wrote: ↑23 May 2024, 23:39
Because you measure against your weaknesses, not against your strengths and Australia was absolutely horrid. To lose 2 tenths in two corners is quite bad to say the least.
McLaren was good in S2 in Miami at the very awkward chicane and the next corner afterwards leading up to the straight. A very odd sequence of corners. And it was barely a tenth anyway, so not exactly "very fast". And we don't even have a proper read on the 1-lap pace for McLaren there since they couldnt get the softs to work. The <1 tenth advantage in race pace might have been 0 in qualifying pace (which is more important in Monaco).
China should be discarded as a reference for Ferrari. They got something wrong with the setup or the car just hates the cool conditions. It has been the worst race pace Ferrari has had against RedBull by far and should be treated like an outlier instead of the norm.
As for McLaren, they expected a difficult fight against RedBull in China, and in pure numbers, they were actually really bad against RedBull (Max) just like they expected. In terms of race pace, they were further behind to Max than they were in Bahrain.
It looked better for Lando because Perez and the Ferraris underdelivered (+ safety car bunching up the gaps).
You're inclined to think/expect whatever you want. I personally wouldn't be surprised if they were off the podium this weekend.
It’s convenient for you to appeal to yourself where it’s indicative and where it’s not. Ha, this is some kind of joke. Well, Lando's total gap to Max in Bahrain over the entire race distance was 48.5 seconds. In China, at half the race distance the gap was 13.7 seconds. Does this really show that McLaren was weaker in China than in Bahrain. Either we see two different races, or your arguments do not stand up to scrutiny. The fact that Ferrari couldn't make their tires work is a feature of their chassis and that's their problem.
High temperatures are not expected in Monaco; this may affect the heating of the tires. There are no fast corners, yes, maybe the high downforce will help cornering a bit for the Ferrari. But this does not change the fact that Ferrari performs better in the race than on one fast lap in qualifying. You yourself say that qualifications are extremely important here.
Lando has already spoken about slow turns. One big plus in Monaco is that here you don’t have to tune the car for fast turns and long straights. All setup for slow turns. This will help mitigate the shortcomings of the chassis. This worked in Miami. Why can't it work here in Monaco?
The problem is that you only look at the gaps, which is a missleading metric because gaps are influenced by many other factors apart from a driver's pace.
In reality, the pace at China was the worst McLaren has had compared to RedBull and simply because Ferrari and Sergio underdelivered, it made the weekend look better than it was.
China :
https://i.imgur.com/aIgYZYY.png
Bahrain :
https://i.imgur.com/JY8Rstu.png
I don't make any "arguments" for the sake of arguing. The fact is, this is how performance has been like. I don't believe the narrative that somehow McLaren is now the fastest car just because they won Miami from the safety car and because RedBull struggled to get their setup right in Imola and suffered with the Hards (and even then, the pace Max had in the first stint was comfortably fastest by a decent margin).
What you say about setup is not true only for McLaren, but for any other team. I don't understand how you can completely disregard the fact that Ferrari has been comfortably the faster car on slower-medium corners while also compromising somewhat for high-speed sections in other tracks, and now you think that by them setting the car up specifically for those sections, they will get slower?
As I said, China should not be taken as a reference point for the true pace of Ferrari because it is an outlier for them, whereas McLaren has pretty much performed up to expectations there if you judge by their pace in comparison to RedBull.
But anyway, again, you're inclined to believe whatever you want. It could happen that we have a McLaren win here, that doesn't really change the fact that in terms of expectations and based on past results this season, they are not the favorites for the win, and may in fact slip out of the podium if both Ferrari drivers + Max deliver.
I was really looking forward to you posting this photo and my argument is ready: if Lando had gone to the two planned pits like Max, then his pace would have been higher. Much higher, believe me. Max drive with all his money, and Lando took care of the tires. Take for example his analysis, but from Japan. Lando went to two pits, and Leclerc went to one. Look at the tempo in his analysis. And then wonder how Leclerc, who started behind Lando and was driving at a slow pace, beat him on the track.
It’s just that Lando had two pits and could attack at first, and Leclerc initially took the tires in Suzuka and the pace was slower, but he spent one pit and won a couple of positions and was ahead of Lando. Therefore, the average pace is not always correct. It is correct only when the drivers you are directly comparing drive the same number of pits, and also drive the same compound’s tires. The main indicator is the gap at the finish line in seconds.
Or take Imola: The second third of the race, or even a little more, Lando was driving 6.2-6.5 seconds behind Max, still on Medium tires. In fact, the same lag remained on Hard tires. It was only in the last 20 laps that Lando began to close the distance. And he drove at such a high pace that at the finish line they were separated by only 0.7 seconds. The analysis itself showed that Lando was the fastest in the race, but bad luck, Lando was second the entire race, and was 6 seconds behind Max about half the distance.
I perfectly understand your cautious prediction about Ferrari and McLaren, but I didn't say anywhere that McLaren would struggle to win. I said that McLaren will be very competitive. Last year they had a hard time on the Medium tires, but once the rain came, their pace with Lando and Oscar was the fastest. I wonder why? Because they didn't have a fast car back then and didn't have an upgrade package that gave them a second off a lap. It's just that McLaren is good at loading the tires and good at keeping the tire temperature in cool conditions. And Ferrari are having trouble warming up in qualifying this year. The weather doesn't promise hot conditions in Monaco, so I have my reasons why we shouldn't discount McLaren over Ferrari.
By the way, qualifying in the rainy conditions of China also showed how poorly Ferrari warms up its tires. I hope you and I are watching the same races.
And to be extremely correct with you. I'm not arguing with you now. I just said that I don't agree with your cautious view. There are always more factors than the slow turnaround of the third sector in Australia.
Here's food for thought about the average driving pace. Lando started third, Leclerc eighth. At the finish Leclerc is fourth, Lando is fifth. The photo below shows that Lando was faster than Leclerc in average race pace. But as we see, not everything is decided by the average pace; position on the track is more important. One pit turned out to be more profitable.
not for me… wife’s making me go away with in-laws
