Curbstone wrote: ↑21 Aug 2024, 13:06
Can you elaborate a bit more on the missing or ignored details?
At least this analysis goed a lot further than 'Since Miami Red Bull was slow, now there is regulation change and Scarbbs showed the 'principle' of the system, so Red Bull must have been cheating..."
- RB's dramatic drop of pace compared to Ferrari in Miami was completely ignored:
---* in Bahrain, Jeddah and Japan, Ferrari was about 20s away from Max regardless of who was leading Ferrari driver
---* Australia and China were outliers for RB and Ferrari, so we can ignore those results
---* in Miami Leclerc was slowed down by Piastri a bit in the 1st stint and matched Max' pace in second stint (once out of dirty air)
---* in Miami there were still no updates for Ferrarim while RB already had a small package in Japan
---* Max damaging his car was reported by Horner as 0.25s in first corner alone, but he was actaully faster in the first corner on his following laps and was wildly metronomic on Hards after the SC, his pace was considerably more stable than Norris' or Leclerc's - so there is no tangible evidence to support the tiny diffuser damage had any impact on his pace
---* bottom line - in a weekend where RB was not compromised by poor starting position, degradation or other aspects,
Ferrari cut the gap by 3-4 tenths, without any upgrades
- McLaren results before Miami are missing a few key aspects:
---* comparing their previous races to RB is relevant only in China's final stint (the gap was 0.55s a lap and fairly linear over 25 laps) since the first stint was massively affected by Alonso starting P2 and Norris subsequently getting stuck behind Perez
---* Bahrain was a complete outlier for McLaren, Jeddah saw Piastri (at the time slower driver) as leading driver due to a gamble with Norris and missing the stop under SC and Japan was also a bit of an outlier since McLaren suffered with deg more than any race before or after (they were setup for cold Q session obviously)
---* bottom line -
McLaren's gap to RB was arguably 5-6 tenths a lap in the race
- McLaren results in Miami are missing a few key aspects:
---* Norris had the sole fully-updated car and his Sprint ended in T1 so Sprint pace comparison is irrelevant
---* McLaren misjudged the setup both in SQ and Q in Miami, compromising Norris' start of the race
---* since he was so far behind in 1st stint and had completely fresh tyres for 2nd stint, we can't directly compare Norris' pace to Max' but he was obviously
quicker by 1-2 tenths
---* bottom line - in a weekend where RB was not compromised by poor starting position, degradation or other aspects,
McLaren cut the gap by 6-8 tenths, while their upgrade was reported as worth 4 tenths a lap
There's also a few details regarding Mercedes' pace improvement over RB, but not over Ferrari and McLaren, but their pace was almost always compromised by traffic and starting position at some point (early in the season) so it's not as valid argument to be taken into account like McLaren and Ferrari pace before Miami.