Italian GP 2009 - Monza

[Richard]

My take is that this will be a strategic battle of the KERS cars. We have 3 cars on 3 strategies. Lewis hoping for clear air speed, Kovi hoping for a classic one stop leap frog and then Kimi taking the middle road.

Impressive to see McL covering their bases so well, and Kovi on the second row with the heavier fuel, a couple of races ago he'd been back at 10th.

Some mental arithmetic shows assuming Lewis, Kimi, and Kovi get away in grid order:

Lap 17 - Lewis is 0.5s a lap quicker in Q3, but clear air advantage will mean he should keep that going every lap, or possibly more if people behind him are in a dogfight? Say 8 or even 10 sec lead by lap 17?

Lap 21 - Kimi on Q2 lap times compared to Lewis on Q3 times (0.65s) . He'll still have clear track but even at 1 sec a lap, he'll be say 5 sec behind Lewis.

Lap 30 - Meanwhile Kovi has 13 laps to haul in Lewis who was 10 sec ahead. Kovi will be on Q2 times and Lewis on Q3 times, a diff of 0.55 sec. Traffic will start to get in Kovi's way, but I imagine he'll have a realistic chance to get close at say 0.5 sec per lap. Possibly 5 to 10 sec behind Lewis after the first stop, possibly ahead of Kimi?

So we then have Kimi and Lewis on Q2 times trying to build a 5-10 sec lead at lap 30 to a 25 sec lead on by lap 40, with Kovi on Q3 times. Lewis can pull out 0.9sa lap, so that's looking like a 15 to 20 sec lead. Not enough for Lewis, but with so many variables it could go either way. However Kimi's Q2 advantage wasn't as great over Kovi in Q3, so he would drop to third.

On that reading the race will end as Kovi, Lewis, Kimi. However, I suspect that clear air advantage on the first 17 laps (and team priorities) will help Lewis pull out enough lead to stay ahead.

It also means that Kimi has to stay ahead of Kovi at the start. Kovi will have a slow Sutl to get past so I suspect Kimi will keep ahead, with Sutl dropping to 4th.

As for the championship - It's looking very good for Brawn. Although they will have to be content with between 5th and 8th, Red Bull will be lucky to get any points. Button will be pleased to stretch his advantage on Red Bull, Rubens will finish ahead of Jensen ... as long as he gets a good start! Earlier this season it was the other way around with Jensen in front at the start and Rubens struggling to keep up. I want to see if Jensen can stick to Rubens now the tables are turned.

Alonso will be interesting, will his KERS get him between the two Brawns? I hope not.

Of course rain, SC or a repeat of Spa's first lap will cause a lot of problems, likely to benefit Kovi ahead of Lewis and Kimi.

[ESPImperium]

I recon that Renault and Toyota need to get arround 40 extra horsepower from their engine to compete with the Merc and Ferarri blocks.

Altho, Ferarri could be as much as arround 20hp down on the Merc engine as well.

Thet merc engine certainly has it all, superior cooling, power, useable torque band, relyability, and the best KERS on the McLaren.

For the race, i see a saftey car out Lap 1, either a accedent at Retifillo or Roggia chicanes. If we have a dry-wet-dry race, we will have the best race of the year, end of story.

[Scotracer]

I recon that Renault and Toyota need to get arround 40 extra horsepower from their engine to compete with the Merc and Ferarri blocks.

Altho, Ferarri could be as much as arround 20hp down on the Merc engine as well.

Thet merc engine certainly has it all, superior cooling, power, useable torque band, relyability, and the best KERS on the McLaren.

For the race, i see a saftey car out Lap 1, either a accedent at Retifillo or Roggia chicanes. If we have a dry-wet-dry race, we will have the best race of the year, end of story.

It's not that much.

The Ferrari is sitting on ~750BHP (from various sources I calculated it). The Mclaren is around 755-760BHP. The Renault engine is roughly the same as the Ferrari unit but the Toyota engine is definitely down on power - less than 740BHP, that much is known.

[ringo]

What about the BMW unit?
I think their main problem is their Indonesian sponsored petronas syntium oil lubricant. I don't want to bash the brand but its not that well known.
I don't know the quality of the stuff but the lubrication plays the most critical role in the engine.

[ringo]

Oh yeah, LH for the win!
Lighter car means more acceleration from the kers in the first few laps, good enough to put a gap on the field.
Hamilton also seems to have a consistently fast pace over the race weekend so expect his lap times to drop lap after lap.
Kimi will get a good break away also but may have to contend with the other fin, this could cause him to take his focus away from Lewis.

I also want Rubens to win the WDC, Button is not showing that he wants it bad enough. Him winning the WDC riding off the first half of the season would be a real buzz kill for the 09 season. Rubens better start well and get some places!!

[vasia]

If the FIA was actually serious about equalizing the engines on the grid, they would have allowed Toyota to make the same "reliability" enhancements to their engine as they allowed Renault, Ferrari, and Mercedes to do last year.

[djos]

Well Im praying for rain in the Race as then the RedBull's will rise to the top - otherwise I reckon Webbo & Vettel will prolly grab Positions 5-6 with their longer fuel strategies. [-o<

[djos]

If the FIA was actually serious about equalizing the engines on the grid, they would have allowed Toyota to make the same "reliability" enhancements to their engine as they allowed Renault, Ferrari, and Mercedes to do last year.

I hate the current engine rules! I mean seriously, if every driver was allowed 1 engine per weekend with the current technical rules they'd all be able to run flat out for the whole weekend without having to baby their engines and surely that would make for a better show!

The cost difference would prolly be maybe $5 Million extra per year so every one would still be only shelling out $10 Million bucks a year for engines which is nothing for an F1 team and the show would be better for it.

If you did change your engine at any point in the weekend then the 10 spot grid penalty should still apply.

[PlatinumZealot]

I think BMW turned up the power for this race considering the high speed nature of the track (and they payed for it dearly!). The BMW Power is there though.. Since I'm a BMW fan.. i'm gonna say it's the second most powerful engine

[megz]

Pity that opinion isn't fact eh?

[ESPImperium]

I recon that Renault and Toyota need to get arround 40 extra horsepower from their engine to compete with the Merc and Ferarri blocks.

Altho, Ferarri could be as much as arround 20hp down on the Merc engine as well.

Thet merc engine certainly has it all, superior cooling, power, useable torque band, relyability, and the best KERS on the McLaren.

For the race, i see a saftey car out Lap 1, either a accedent at Retifillo or Roggia chicanes. If we have a dry-wet-dry race, we will have the best race of the year, end of story.

It's not that much.

The Ferrari is sitting on ~750BHP (from various sources I calculated it). The Mclaren is around 755-760BHP. The Renault engine is roughly the same as the Ferrari unit but the Toyota engine is definitely down on power - less than 740BHP, that much is known.

I see now. Id allow Toyota and Renault to catch up a little more. The Ferarri will get the extra over time. But one thing thats became clear to me is that the rest, including Ferarri need to do some work on the useable torque band and power transfer, as this is where i think the Mercedes F108W has the advantage.

I wouldnt say that the BMW problem is to do with lubricants, id say it could be more to do with the fact that its something more mechanical. Kubica used 10 engines last year, Heidfeld used 9. Only 5 of the engines between the 2 drivers covered less than 1400Km, The BMW engine was the second most relyable last year and used less blocks than the most relyable of 08 that was the Toyota RVX-8. But i think that the 8 engines per season rule is definatly streching the P86/9 more than it sould be streached.

[Shaddock]

The Merc is also supposed to be the most fuel efficent on the grid. Fisi at Spa matched Kimi's number of laps starting with less fuel. This could be an important point next year when they will have to carry a whole race worth of fuel at the start.

[mstar]

wasn't the fuel effiecency idea disregarded (talked down by norbert) as he said they don't know how much fuel kimi had in the tank/if he was using different fuel saving modes etc. But one reason is that the merc has the ability to turn of some cylinders(or somthing) when at low speeds (i.e pitlane/behind SC etc) which aids fuel economoy and i am sure there are some other wonderful stuff it does to!!

[axle]

Fuel corrected grid - who did the best with the fuel they had on board in Q3...

1 Kovalainen (lap 28)
2 Rubens Barrichello +0.016secs (lap 30)
3 Lewis Hamilton +0.047secs (lap 16)
4 Jenson Button +0.073 (lap 29)
5 Adrian Sutil +0.200 (lap 17)
6 Kimi Raikkonen +0.266 (lap 19)
7 Vitantonio Liuzzi +0.296 (lap 27)
8 Sebastian Vettel +0.363 (lap 27)
9 Fernando Alonso +0.381 (lap 26)
10 Mark Webber +0.469 (lap 28)

I can see both Brawn's on the podium for this one. IF RB's gearbox isn't changed and does hang together...there is a risk it's knackered from the fire last time out.

[ESPImperium]

The Mercedes engine can seemingly run on what is effectivly a V2 basis, where the rest can seemingly run to what is effectivly a V4 basis for fuel saving. Something says to me that this is against the rules somewhere, where they have to run at full V8 for the entire race. May have to check them again.

Its dry today, so im gonna say, if the GP2 race is anything to go by, theres gonna be a saftey car after lap 1, after a accedent either at the Roggia chicane or going into the Lesmos.