To add to that prediction I think the BMW's/Toyota's will be in a tangle as they seem to be a magnet for early incidents.
Alonso's start will be key to weather the Brawn's can get their heads down and make the 1 stop work - Alonso is light and has KERS off the line.
It's interesting to see McLaren are saying KERS can't work every lap fully. They can't recharge it enough. So, they can use 80% all the time or 100% then 60 then 100% then 60%...etc etc...if that is the same for all the KERS competitors then KERS could be more of a hinderance in the race, to building a cushion...it will still be a great overtake/defend system.