f1316 wrote: ↑02 Sep 2024, 19:19
What do we think about the chances in Baku and what drag levels do we think they will run?
My thoughts are:
(1) Leclerc is a demon there
(2) the car is good over bumps
(3) the Spa wing seemed like a good compromise and they performed better than expected
(4) in theory they should be stronger than Spa because the bouncing has been rectified + I would presume no one will be able to run the car quite so low in Baku given the bumps/curbs etc
All of which makes me fairly positive but what do folks think? The tow will probably be somewhat important in quali but not the be all end all like it once was.
On paper, McLaren and Red Bull should be favourites ahead of Ferrari. Baku is a single stop race now, so Ferrari won't be able to exploit their slightly better deg. Maybe they can use Softs in the first stint, but that seems too optimistic for Baku. However, we might see some struggles with RB again, if they can't find the right balance over bumps and kerbs.
Unfortunately, McLaren used their Spa package with slightly smaller beam wing in Monza, while Ferrari used Monza spec, so we can't make direct cornering comparisons with this discrepancy. With that said, it was good to see very small difference in Q in Lesmos (2-3 kmh lower apex speed) and Parabolica (6 kmh lower) since last year Max had +6 in Lesmo 2 and +9 in Parabolica - with a Spa-Monza hybrid package.
If they get close to McLaren in Baku, they will be close in Singapore and most of upcoming races too.