2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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venkyhere
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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mwillems wrote:
04 Sep 2024, 21:07
while this looks mighty impressive on first glance, the real 'data' in this is :

- NOR has scored an average 19/5 = 3.8 points more than VER over last 5 races (WDC fight)
- despite both McLaren drivers scoring equally, the team has scored (170-116)/5 = 10.8 points more than Ferrari over last 5 races (WCC fight).
If we extrapolate this 'trend' for the remainder of the season, mathematically speaking, WDC is difficult to achieve, WCC is in the bag.

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mwillems
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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venkyhere wrote:
05 Sep 2024, 16:22
mwillems wrote:
04 Sep 2024, 21:07
while this looks mighty impressive on first glance, the real 'data' in this is :

- NOR has scored an average 19/5 = 3.8 points more than VER over last 5 races (WDC fight)
- despite both McLaren drivers scoring equally, the team has scored (170-116)/5 = 10.8 points more than Ferrari over last 5 races (WCC fight).
If we extrapolate this 'trend' for the remainder of the season, mathematically speaking, WDC is difficult to achieve, WCC is in the bag.
WDC was always an outside chance. Until the summer break Max was extending his lead over Lando. Looks a bit easier now but it's still a big ask. WCC is still a fight because anyone can develop ahead of us.
Last edited by mwillems on 05 Sep 2024, 16:39, edited 1 time in total.
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mwillems
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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Ben1980
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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If they all do it, does it wipe out the advantage? Or is this just part of it?

CjC
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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mwillems wrote:
05 Sep 2024, 16:36
Yea Lucky posted it earlier today.
I’m not sure how to take it.

Yes, engineer it to high maturity so it works first time- that’s obviously plan A.

BUT, what if they do that and it still doesn’t work as intended? Ferrari lost 4 races solving theirs, Red Bull are still solving their issue and it sounds like Merc are on a 3 race run of not being sure that it’s working totally as planned.
McLaren can’t afford to leave it too late because the season might end with them 3rd in the WCC and a floor which they couldn’t get a grip of.
So do they bring it to the next race? To see how it performs, if they see it’s not working- ‘Ferrari fix’ it for the next 4 races then bring it back to Vagas? For the season end?

It’s a quandary for sure.
Just a fan's point of view

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mwillems
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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They could always test it side by side, I guess. They have the old floor to fall back on. But I can only assume they can see something that gives them doubts and they want to develop something out of it first, or to develop parts around it. There is another article floating around, the floor isn't the only bit they haven't released yet, is how it reads to me.

Andrea Stella: “There’s a reason why we haven’t brought some upgrades.

Because we see that, had we pressed the go button, we might have had some doubts when these parts were tested full-scale on the real car.”

Which explains the comments from Stella before the summer break about some parts being held back.
I'm not taking advice from a cartoon dog

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CjC
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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The thought crossed my mind about running them side by side but who the hell would run what?? Just look at the comments in the media and in this thread alone since Monza!

Imagine if they gave the new floor to Oscar and he destroyed Lando and the rest of them with the new floor… there would be championship up roar.

Or imagine it didn’t work and he struggled to 8th place, the Oscar fans would shout that Oscar isn’t a lab rat for Lando!

Or they gave it to both of them and they struggle to a P7 & 8, you’d have the fans (probably me included) whinging that they have brought to risky of a part and they have blown their best chance for a title for 2 decades.

It’s a real quandary :lol:

I think I read the same other article (on Autosport?) I too got the impression that potentially they might need to develop other parts to guarantee the floors performance… I did wonder if a new front wing would be needed? Dare I say it… a more flexible wing :lol: :lol:
Just a fan's point of view

Emag
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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Emag wrote:
05 Sep 2024, 12:27
They're going to sugarcoat it a bit but I have been suspecting of this for a while now. I am almost certain they had things in the pipeline which didn't go through after a more thorough look when the Miami package delivered perhaps a bit more than they expected. Then the subsequent problems that were faced at Ferrari and later on with Mercedes as well, they must have seen that not every upgrade is a "real" upgrade on-track and chasing pure load is not the way to go.

They were quite bullish about the trajectory and the way forward before the season started and it only materialized into a single significant upgrade package that came in Miami where I am certain more were planned. Still, bringing parts that mess up the balance on-track is a lot worse than spending the time and resources to optimize everything so that when the parts do arrive, they bring improvements instead of headaches.
I'll re-post this comment since it got drowned into Monza discussions (again).

But I don't really see it as a big positive. The development trajectory that they seemed to advertise last year and early this year apparently wasn't as clear as they thought. It mostly concerns me about next season though.

Macklaren
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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I think the hesitancy with the upgrade also reflects what I said earlier in the thread about whether they "need" the upgrade or not if the car is still winning. They won in zandvoort by over 20 sec and likely would have in Monza as well if LEC had pitted, so why risk ruining this with a new floor?

Emag
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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Macklaren wrote:
05 Sep 2024, 20:51
I think the hesitancy with the upgrade also reflects what I said earlier in the thread about whether they "need" the upgrade or not if the car is still winning. They won in zandvoort by over 20 sec and likely would have in Monza as well if LEC had pitted, so why risk ruining this with a new floor?
Being scared that your upgrades will ruin a good car is not exactly confidence-inspiring.

FittingMechanics
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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I think they are just thorough. Why rush things? You spend money making them and then if it doesn't work you lost that money. The upgrade path with bigger packages insteaf of trickling it in is obviously working.

Don't worry about journalists taking things out of context and pushing narratives. If anything it says the team has more aces in their sleeve.

Emag
Emag
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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FittingMechanics wrote:
05 Sep 2024, 21:50
I think they are just thorough. Why rush things? You spend money making them and then if it doesn't work you lost that money. The upgrade path with bigger packages insteaf of trickling it in is obviously working.

Don't worry about journalists taking things out of context and pushing narratives. If anything it says the team has more aces in their sleeve.
It is Andrea Stella who says they were worried they would hit the same road-block Mercedes & Ferrari hit though. I do not concern myself with clickbait titles.
I read the articles that are interesting to me and draw my own conclusions.

The fact of the matter is that they actually had a very promising forecast for development potential internally. With Andrea being quoted to say the following before the season started :
"The gradient we established last year that led to the Austria and Singapore development, it seems like we can maintain it," Stella said.

"In the background, we are already starting to work on further developments which we hope to bring relatively soon in the season and they also seem to be quite interesting.

"In terms of the regulations themselves and the development at McLaren, we seem like a linear gradient of development can be maintained."
What they expected after 2023, was a continuation of the gradient they saw after the large upgrades introduced in Austria and Singapore respectively, and the first big one arrived in Miami this year, where Andrea Stella was also quoted to say the following :

Despite the impressive start, Stella said there is still lots of work to do in its pursuit of addressing more low-speed concerns.

“Not to the entirety that we would have wished,” Stella said. “There is still some more specific work and upgrades that we need to deliver to address low speed in particular.”
It's the wording that was interesting here. He says specific work and upgrades that they needed to deliver. Basically, from what they initially were thinking on how to follow-through with this "gradient of development" that Stella mentioned, they certainly had planned subsequent upgrades after Miami, but of course we all know that is not what happened.

Instead we have had circuit-specific parts being brought and a new front-wing in Austria which I am not even sure they've been using every round since.

I speculated that they might have hit some trouble with development a while back, and my comment expressing those concerns should be buried on earlier pages, but I was a little bit too lazy to look for it.

But yeah, what Stella has said now about them having doubts that the developments would not bring the desired results in the real world, shows that the initial plan for in-season developments has, at the very least suffered a setback and at the very worst has made them re-think the potential of the package and what the limit may be.

And again, these aren't my words, quote by Stella :
“But there's a reason why we haven't brought some upgrades – because we see that, had we pressed the go button, we might have had some doubts when these parts were tested full-scale on the real car.
It's slightly worrying.

PapayaFan481
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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bauc wrote:
05 Sep 2024, 16:11
What are your expectations about BAKU? Such a weird track that one.....
The tight sections require confidence in the car and good stop-go performace with a strong front end - I think we tick all those boxes. The final sector requires good top-speed and we can tick that box too. Riding the bumps, yep we're good there.

I expect we'll be in the fight along with whichever other team is having a good weekend - my guess is Ferrari again. I don't see the RB20 liking the bumpy surface even though it's not as bad as Monaco.
If I come across as blunt, I apologise, it's my ASD. Sometimes, like an F1 car aqua-planing, it gets out of my control.

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mwillems
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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I'm not concerned that the floor is anything to worry about, yet. For some time the developments have been in the main focussed on getting the car closer to the ground, increasing the flow under the car and using the geometry to extract the most downforce with the right balance across the floor.

Likely at this point the teams are getting so close to the limit that they are within the margin of error of going too far and reviving the porpoising or other unwanted effects. There is only so much you can do with CFD and the tunnel. That said, I'd imagine they still have enough data to recognise things aren't quite right, but these things take time.
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mwillems
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Re: 2024 Mclaren Formula 1 Team

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bauc wrote:
05 Sep 2024, 16:11
What are your expectations about BAKU? Such a weird track that one.....
I reckon we'll be at least top 4! :D

It's the drivers that make the difference. Don't think either of our chaps have covered themselves in glory at Baku but this is a different car now and we know that it will be comfortable at this track so perhaps this will help.

Ferrari will be OK there, at least, and Charles likes Baku himself. Merc might well continue their post summer break slump but like Red Bull, you can't rule them out.

As always, margins will be tight here, in the context of Baku gaps.
I'm not taking advice from a cartoon dog

-Bandit