2024 Azerbaijan Grand Prix - Baku, Sep 13-15

[Sevach]

Have to say I'm very surprised that so many people are making ferrari being at the very front such a given. Is this just heavy optimism regarding the monza upgrade? Because otherwise it's a bit of a leap for so many to see ferrari as favourite. Idk, maybe I'm misguided.

Saying that I think anybody of 5 or 6 drivers can win depending on safety car and timing of stops etc.

The track is just Monaco with a huge straight, it doesn't play to Mclaren's strengths.

With that said i agree that SCs can majorly influence results here.

In what way does it not play to mclarens strengths? If anything there strengths are the fact they have no weaknesses (other than strategy calls)

Where they have an edge over Ferrari is high speed corners.

[organic]

Have to say I'm very surprised that so many people are making ferrari being at the very front such a given. Is this just heavy optimism regarding the monza upgrade? Because otherwise it's a bit of a leap for so many to see ferrari as favourite. Idk, maybe I'm misguided.

Saying that I think anybody of 5 or 6 drivers can win depending on safety car and timing of stops etc.

The track is just Monaco with a huge straight, it doesn't play to Mclaren's strengths.

With that said i agree that SCs can majorly influence results here.

In what way does it not play to mclarens strengths? If anything there strengths are the fact they have no weaknesses (other than strategy calls)

McLaren haven't been that brilliant on stop-go tracks so far since the Miami upgrade. They were at best equal fastest at them so far (Canada, Austria, Monza). Their advantage has been far larger at tracks with a wide variety of corner types that rewards their excellent balance, and higher downforce circuits.

Baku requires fewer setup compromises that will penalise more limited cars (such as Ferrari) to a lesser extent and the lower drag confirmation seems to suit McLaren less than other teams

[bananapeel23]

In what way does it not play to mclarens strengths? If anything there strengths are the fact they have no weaknesses (other than strategy calls)

Primarily the fact that McLaren doesn't ride kerbs and bumps as well as Ferrari. McLaren and Red Bull will have to raise their respective floors in order to not suffer from bouncing. Ferrari will not have to raise it nearly as much, because their car concept doesn't rely as heavily on running the floor incredibly close to the ground.

The types of corners in Baku aren't the ones where McLaren has a significant advantage over Ferrari, either. They are good in all corner types, but especially good in fast corners. Ferrari isn't great in medium and high speed corners, but at its best in the stop start, 90 degree corners.

[mclaren111]

In what way does it not play to mclarens strengths? If anything there strengths are the fact they have no weaknesses (other than strategy calls)

Primarily the fact that McLaren doesn't ride kerbs and bumps as well as Ferrari. McLaren and Red Bull will have to raise their respective floors in order to not suffer from bouncing. Ferrari will not have to raise it nearly as much, because their car concept doesn't rely as heavily on running the floor incredibly close to the ground.

The types of corners in Baku aren't the ones where McLaren has a significant advantage over Ferrari, either. They are good in all corner types, but especially good in fast corners. Ferrari isn't great in medium and high speed corners, but at its best in the stop start, 90 degree corners.

From what I've read McLaren lost some of the high speed ability and are now better in low & medium speed corners...

[dani5549]

In what way does it not play to mclarens strengths? If anything there strengths are the fact they have no weaknesses (other than strategy calls)

Primarily the fact that McLaren doesn't ride kerbs and bumps as well as Ferrari. McLaren and Red Bull will have to raise their respective floors in order to not suffer from bouncing. Ferrari will not have to raise it nearly as much, because their car concept doesn't rely as heavily on running the floor incredibly close to the ground.

The types of corners in Baku aren't the ones where McLaren has a significant advantage over Ferrari, either. They are good in all corner types, but especially good in fast corners. Ferrari isn't great in medium and high speed corners, but at its best in the stop start, 90 degree corners.

That is no longer the case though, Leclerc was pretty bad in Turn 1-2 at Monza because of the understeer.

[Mcl_G10]

Ok guys thanks for you're inputs on that. I'm certainly interested to see how this pans out during the weekend.

[bananapeel23]

That is no longer the case though, Leclerc was pretty bad in Turn 1-2 at Monza because of the understeer.

And Sainz was purple in sector 1 in quali, if I'm not mistaken. Leclerc being slow in 1-2 was a setup choice from Ferrari/Leclerc that led to much better car balance and tyre wear in the race for Leclerc, at the cost of understeer in quali. The balance was good on high fuel and became more understeery as fuel burned off, which helped reduce front left sliding and meant Leclerc was able to go so incredibly long on his hards, while McLaren had to pit again and Sainz suffered comparatively more deg despite running a shorter hard stint.

That compromise to go for such low front wing loading was made because aero efficiency and front left preservation is so important in Monza. In Baku they can mount a higher downforce front wing, because aero efficiency isn't as important when 2/3 of the lap is slow-medium speed corners and the tyre wear is biased towards the rears due to the stop-start nature of the track. You can afford to beat your fronts to a pulp in Baku, so Ferrari can retain their great acceleration out of slow corners, while also going for a more oversteery balance (at the cost of front tyre wear) so they can get on the throttle earlier.

[dani5549]

That is no longer the case though, Leclerc was pretty bad in Turn 1-2 at Monza because of the understeer.

And Sainz was purple in sector 1 in quali, if I'm not mistaken. Leclerc being slow in 1-2 was a setup choice from Ferrari/Leclerc that led to much better car balance and tyre wear in the race for Leclerc, at the cost of understeer in quali. The balance was good on high fuel and became more understeery as fuel burned off, which helped reduce front left sliding and meant Leclerc was able to go so incredibly long on his hards, while McLaren had to pit again and Sainz suffered comparatively more deg despite running a shorter hard stint.

That compromise to go for such low front wing loading was made because aero efficiency and front left preservation is so important in Monza. In Baku they can mount a higher downforce front wing, because aero efficiency isn't as important when 2/3 of the lap is slow-medium speed corners and the tyre wear is biased towards the rears due to the stop-start nature of the track. You can afford to beat your fronts to a pulp in Baku, so Ferrari can retain their great acceleration out of slow corners, while also going for a more oversteery balance (at the cost of front tyre wear) so they can get on the throttle earlier.

Yes but it is not necesarilly Monza specific, Leclerc complains about understeer ever since the Spain upgrade. Sainz was faster in S1 because of setup compromise and was slower in the other parts and he deals with and understeery car better than Charles

[Xyz22]

That is no longer the case though, Leclerc was pretty bad in Turn 1-2 at Monza because of the understeer.

And Sainz was purple in sector 1 in quali, if I'm not mistaken. Leclerc being slow in 1-2 was a setup choice from Ferrari/Leclerc that led to much better car balance and tyre wear in the race for Leclerc, at the cost of understeer in quali. The balance was good on high fuel and became more understeery as fuel burned off, which helped reduce front left sliding and meant Leclerc was able to go so incredibly long on his hards, while McLaren had to pit again and Sainz suffered comparatively more deg despite running a shorter hard stint.

That compromise to go for such low front wing loading was made because aero efficiency and front left preservation is so important in Monza. In Baku they can mount a higher downforce front wing, because aero efficiency isn't as important when 2/3 of the lap is slow-medium speed corners and the tyre wear is biased towards the rears due to the stop-start nature of the track. You can afford to beat your fronts to a pulp in Baku, so Ferrari can retain their great acceleration out of slow corners, while also going for a more oversteery balance (at the cost of front tyre wear) so they can get on the throttle earlier.

Yes but it is not necesarilly Monza specific, Leclerc complains about understeer ever since the Spain upgrade. Sainz was faster in S1 because of setup compromise and was slower in the other parts and he deals with and understeery car better than Charles

Leclerc has been complaining about understeer in low speed since day 2 of Bahrain test. He has been struggling (compared to Sainz in quali) in these corners since the start of the season with the SF 24. In race trim the difference with Sainz is way smaller, but compared to other teams the SF 24 is not as competitive.

[Sevach]

That is no longer the case though, Leclerc was pretty bad in Turn 1-2 at Monza because of the understeer.

Despite the fact that he wasn't happy with the car in those corners he didn't lose time to Mclaren there(where he lost time was the 2 Lesmos and Ascari), and Sainz was the fastest car there.

Both Ferrari's running less wing than everybody.

[search]

it's a good track for Leclerc, but is there any reason to believe that Ferrari has solved its qualifying issues? I honestly would be surprised to see him on Pole.

[ScuderiaLeo]

it's a good track for Leclerc, but is there any reason to believe that Ferrari has solved its qualifying issues? I honestly would be surprised to see him on Pole.

I think it's just a combination of "Leclerc outdriving expectations" plus the Ferrari being good over bumps that has people anticipating them being competitive. It helps that Red Bull is seemingly nowhere so there's less competition at the front, and who knows about Mercedes.

In reality Norris should still be the favourite, but I can see a Ferrari getting pole if Norris makes a mistake in his final lap.

[organic]

it's a good track for Leclerc, but is there any reason to believe that Ferrari has solved its qualifying issues? I honestly would be surprised to see him on Pole.

They haven't had massive issues in qualifying when it's been hot. They competed at Monza in quali for instance.

In 2023 leclerc was 2 tenths clear on pole in both Q3 and SQ3, gapping Sainz by 8 and 6 tenths in each session respectively. In 2022 he stormed to pole by 3 tenths despite RB looking competitive all weekend until Q3 and gapped Sainz by 5 tenths. Pole in 2021 in 3rd or 4th fastest car.. and had his best drive in F2 at Baku. He's just an expert at this track. I think this finesse will overcome the usual Ferrari issues

[AR3-GP]

At the same time, it would be just like Ferrari to throw in a Canada level weekend when you least expect it. They've been hyped to death for this circuit. Let us hope it actually pans out otherwise it will be a Mclaren walkover.

[PlatinumZealot]

I'm betting on Aston Martin to surprise, but Mercedes to win. George Russell.