2024 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[AR3-GP]

The one thing that needs a little more talk about is the team's strategy calls. For some reason, overtaking has not been as easy in races and track position seems to matter more. Despite that, the team seems to be consistently getting undercut. I'm not talking about the Max/Leclerc incident (which was nothing) but Sainz undercutting Perez just isn't getting talked about enough.

Something dark happened to this team. Strategy and pitstops have been midfield quality since Hungary. The change is very pronounced in the data. I will post the DHL standings later.

The pitstop time average (moving average) has been increasing with every race. Something is very wrong at this team.

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The one thing that needs a little more talk about is the team's strategy calls. For some reason, overtaking has not been as easy in races and track position seems to matter more. Despite that, the team seems to be consistently getting undercut. I'm not talking about the Max/Leclerc incident (which was nothing) but Sainz undercutting Perez just isn't getting talked about enough.

in hindsight, the Sainz strategy was probably the better one, but he also had to pass a couple of cars. So I wouldn't think it's a given that it would have worked out as good for Perez.

And he made up 4.5s on Colapinto by pitting one lap earlier himself, by the way, so while he lost a position to Sainz, he also gained one by doing an undercut later on.

[MYsee]

I think Max will easily win the championship. Let me explain why. Let's assume Norris scores an average of 18 points per weekend for the rest of the season. That’s only 108 points. Even if Max scores just a little more than half of that—57 points—he will still win the championship. So, unless Norris wins every race and faces no competition, Verstappen will win. This was Red Bull’s weakest track on paper, yet Max still finished 2nd on the podium. After the Austin upgrade, Red Bull could become extremely competitive again and potentially outscore Norris. In Baku, Pérez in the Red Bull had identical race pace to McLaren, even though McLaren had the mini DRS trick, which they won’t have anymore.

This is exactly how I see it. In Singapore of all places, they managed a comfortable P2. Just remember last year Singapore for Red Bull...
Not long ago, Piasti would have easily got Verstappen, but he was actually losing time in last stint. This is all quite encouraging.

I was just looking at the gaps and how the math is quite favourable. Lando needs an average of 8.7 pts every weekend, so:

• If Lando finishes 1st (25 pts), Max needs to finish 2nd as the pts differential will only be 7 pts.

• If Lando finishes 2nd (18 pts), Max has a window of finishing 3-5 (15-10 pts) before the average is eaten in to

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I think Max will easily win the championship. Let me explain why. Let's assume Norris scores an average of 18 points per weekend for the rest of the season. That’s only 108 points. Even if Max scores just a little more than half of that—57 points—he will still win the championship. So, unless Norris wins every race and faces no competition, Verstappen will win. This was Red Bull’s weakest track on paper, yet Max still finished 2nd on the podium. After the Austin upgrade, Red Bull could become extremely competitive again and potentially outscore Norris. In Baku, Pérez in the Red Bull had identical race pace to McLaren, even though McLaren had the mini DRS trick, which they won’t have anymore.

This is exactly how I see it. In Singapore of all places, they managed a comfortable P2. Just remember last year Singapore for Red Bull...
Not long ago, Piasti would have easily got Verstappen, but he was actually losing time in last stint. This is all quite encouraging.

I was just looking at the gaps and how the math is quite favourable. Lando needs an average of 8.7 pts every weekend, so:

• If Lando finishes 1st (25 pts), Max needs to finish 2nd as the pts differential will only be 7 pts.

• If Lando finishes 2nd (18 pts), Max has a window of finishing 3-5 (15-10 pts) before the average is eaten in to

There are some sprints too

[MYsee]

This is exactly how I see it. In Singapore of all places, they managed a comfortable P2. Just remember last year Singapore for Red Bull...
Not long ago, Piasti would have easily got Verstappen, but he was actually losing time in last stint. This is all quite encouraging.

I was just looking at the gaps and how the math is quite favourable. Lando needs an average of 8.7 pts every weekend, so:

• If Lando finishes 1st (25 pts), Max needs to finish 2nd as the pts differential will only be 7 pts.

• If Lando finishes 2nd (18 pts), Max has a window of finishing 3-5 (15-10 pts) before the average is eaten in to

There are some sprints too

And fastest lap. But it just trying to demonstrate how if Lando is not perfect, the window for where Max can finish in any given race gets bigger.

[Jurgen von Diaz]

What is this Minecraft thing with Verstappen? Is he gaming that?

[chrisc90]

Lando would need to finish P1 and Max P2 in all remaining races AND 2 fastest lap points to beat Max by 1 point

[Sergej]

it's quite pointless to do this math now, still too many races to go and everything (incidents, engine blow up, engine penalty) can happen, screwing the calculations

if anything, what we can draw is that Lando doesn't seem able to score that 9 points more than Max on average, he was not able to do that so far, no matter what streak of races you pick from Miami to Singapore

but surely we will need that Austin correction to deliver.

[Sergej]

on another note, seems another big name is ready to leave the team

[Paa]

it's quite pointless to do this math now, still too many races to go and everything (incidents, engine blow up, engine penalty) can happen, screwing the calculations

if anything, what we can draw is that Lando doesn't seem able to score that 9 points more than Max on average, he was not able to do that so far, no matter what streak of races you pick from Miami to Singapore

but surely we will need that Austin correction to deliver.

That's true, although Norris seems to have bigger and bigger car advantage as season goes by. Mclaren is certainly further ahead now than they were at summer. So now it is easier for Lando to have a winning streak (+Oscar support confirmed), than it was 3-5-8 races ago.

[KimiRai]

The pitstop time average (moving average) has been increasing with every race. Something is very wrong at this team.

https://i.postimg.cc/nr1X4kxk/image.png

Andor Hegedus left to join Aston Martin in late 2023. It's not a one-man show of course but it could be one of the reasons.

[Sergej]

it's quite pointless to do this math now, still too many races to go and everything (incidents, engine blow up, engine penalty) can happen, screwing the calculations

if anything, what we can draw is that Lando doesn't seem able to score that 9 points more than Max on average, he was not able to do that so far, no matter what streak of races you pick from Miami to Singapore

but surely we will need that Austin correction to deliver.

That's true, although Norris seems to have bigger and bigger car advantage as season goes by. Mclaren is certainly further ahead now than they were at summer. So now it is easier for Lando to have a winning streak (+Oscar support confirmed), than it was 3-5-8 races ago.

yeah that's true, and that's why the Austin correction MUST come into play, if Max can outscore Lando only 1 or 2 times out of 6 left weekends, it will get super hard for Lando to win the title.

[AR3-GP]

The pitstop time average (moving average) has been increasing with every race. Something is very wrong at this team.

https://i.postimg.cc/nr1X4kxk/image.png

Andor Hegedus left to join Aston Martin in late 2023. It's not a one-man show of course but it could be one of the reasons.

Lawrence Stroll has been playing the long game. What a team they will have from 2026. Hegedus probably got an offer he couldn't refuse.

[KimiRai]

The pitstop time average (moving average) has been increasing with every race. Something is very wrong at this team.

https://i.postimg.cc/nr1X4kxk/image.png

Andor Hegedus left to join Aston Martin in late 2023. It's not a one-man show of course but it could be one of the reasons.

Lawrence Stroll has been playing the long game. What a team they will have from 2026. Hegedus probably got an offer he couldn't refuse.

It's not like he had a hugely noticeable effect in his new team though, so far at least. Red Bull's pit stops are still better.

[AR3-GP]

Andor Hegedus left to join Aston Martin in late 2023. It's not a one-man show of course but it could be one of the reasons.

Lawrence Stroll has been playing the long game. What a team they will have from 2026. Hegedus probably got an offer he couldn't refuse.

It's not like he had a hugely noticeable effect in his new team though, so far at least. Red Bull's pit stops are still better.

IIRC, the back of the Aston Martin (suspension, hubs) is from the Mercedes so this is not something that can be re-engineered until they make their own components in 2026.

Toto Wolf discussed how resource intensive this development is and that's why Mercedes took forever to address it. I expect that he will make his impact on the 2026 car. It's the more logical time to intervene.