2024 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[Wouter]

on another note, seems another big name is ready to leave the team
https://i.postimg.cc/dtprNhr5/calum.png

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I don't hope he is leaving. He is a brilliant engineer and a very nice guy! I hope he will get a promotion and still be Max his nr1 engineer.

This video starts a the moment he is talking about Max.

[FittingMechanics]

I think this calculation is too optimistic. The reality in Spore was the same as in Azer:
- Both Ferrari out of position.
- One Merc out of position...Russel qualified behind Ham. Screwed strategy on Ham, with a Med he could have gone for an undercut.
- Piastri stuck behind the Mercs.

Simple point is, that Max showed a perfect execution. Not 100% sure about the stop, but the rest was perfect.
Still P2 is a result of luck, not of pace. With a McLaren pushing through the race and without clumsy execution by Merc and Ferraris, this would have been again behind all others like last year or like Azer.

This is well said. Many fans fall into recency bias. McLaren wins one race by a big margin and now they have a rocketship. Max executes a great qualy and race and gets P2 - and suddenly the car is good again. It's not that simple.

What helps Max a lot is that:
a) his teammate never takes away points from him
b) McLaren had several strategy blunders (Silverstone for example) and Oscar takes away points from Norris more often
c) Other teams are challenging McLaren for wins but are also making mistakes (Ferrari takes the win in Monza ahead of McLaren but doesn't beat Max in Singapore).

[Wouter]

F1 drivers set for private talks over response to Verstappen swearing controversy

Drivers are pondering best response to FIA swearing clampdown after Verstappen sanction

Formula 1 drivers are planning discussions about how best to respond to their unease about the FIA’s hardline response to Max Verstappen swearing in a press conference.

The FIA’s decision to impose a day’s public service punishment on Verstappen for using the F-word ahead of the Singapore Grand Prix has not gone down well with the series’ current stars.

It even prompted the Dutchman himself to stage protests at subsequent official press conference appearances – offering only short answers to fulfil the requirements of the regulations.

On Sunday night, during a privately arranged gathering to speak to media outside the formal FIA setting, Verstappen revealed that what had happened over the weekend was the sort of thing that could help push him towards retirement.

But Verstappen is not alone in being unhappy about the matter, and said he had been backed by other drivers in their private Grand Prix Drivers’ Association (GPDA) WhatsApp group.

Asked if there was support for him, Verstappen said: “Yeah, for sure. Of course, I wrote in the GPDA [chat] the ruling, and everyone was almost laughing like, 'what the hell is that' basically. So, yeah, it is very, very silly.”

Now, it has emerged that the GPDA wants to gather the thoughts of all of its members and work out a response.

Speaking to the YouTube channel of Motorsport.com's sister site Formel1.de, GPDA chairman Alex Wurz said that while not everyone’s style may be to use expletives, the issuing of penalties for swearing was excessive.
“How many lifetime community services would Guenther Steiner have to serve for using the F-word?” said Wurz, who also tweeted about the topic. “He was glorified for using the F-word.

“Netflix broadcast this worldwide, no problem. But then to suddenly change like that?
“I have to say: [the choice of words] is not my personal taste as a driver. As GPDA chairman, I have to officially say that we will, of course, discuss it internally, first reach a full consensus, and then we will consider whether and in what form we will talk to the FIA and the president.”

Wurz said it was not the style of the GPDA to use the media to push its agenda, and expressed his hopes that the issue could be resolved behind closed doors to keep all parties happy.

“Personally, I always believe, and we also do this at the GPDA: we solve it internally,” he said. “We don't go through the media.

“Very rarely does something go from the GPDA to the media because we simply try to solve things internally for the sake of the sport and want to bring the people and the individual key stakeholders on our journey together.

“I think drivers have to be allowed to express themselves authentically to some extent. Of course, it shouldn't be personally offensive, and it shouldn't be discriminatory either. They've all come a long way in that regard. So, for me personally, the penalty is too severe.”

The Verstappen controversy came in the wake of remarks that FIA president Mohammed Ben Sulayem made to Motorsport.com about his desire to see drivers swear less on team radio.

"We have to differentiate between our sport – motorsport – and rap music," Ben Sulayem said.

"We're not rappers, you know. They say the F-word how many times per minute? We are not on that. That's them and we are [us]."

[venkyhere]

Luckily for Red Bull there is nothing past "soon" this season. Thus damage limitation will suffice as long as 1) Norris doesn't win every race and 2) Verstappen doesn't get tangled up in an incident

1) is pretty likely to be the case. Norris simply isn't on the level on Leclerc, Hamilton and Verstappen in terms of race management and will inevitably make mistakes even if the car is the fastest at every single circuit. He nearly crashed out twice in Singapore and failed to get out of Q2 in Baku.

2) Isn't that unlikely. Verstappen could very well end up in some kind of lap 1 incident at no fault of his own unless the car improves enough for him to constantly start on the front row.

If Red Bull doesn't improve at all this season, I'd say the WDC is like 60/40 in favour of Verstappen. If Red Bull makes a good step in Austin, it's more like 80/20.

I think Max will easily win the championship. Let me explain why. Let's assume Norris scores an average of 18 points per weekend for the rest of the season. That’s only 108 points. Even if Max scores just a little more than half of that—57 points—he will still win the championship. So, unless Norris wins every race and faces no competition, Verstappen will win. This was Red Bull’s weakest track on paper, yet Max still finished 2nd on the podium. After the Austin upgrade, Red Bull could become extremely competitive again and potentially outscore Norris. In Baku, Pérez in the Red Bull had identical race pace to McLaren, even though McLaren had the mini DRS trick, which they won’t have anymore.

I was just looking at the gaps and how the math is quite favourable. Lando needs an average of 8.7 pts every weekend, so:

• If Lando finishes 1st (25 pts), Max needs to finish 2nd as the pts differential will only be 7 pts.

• If Lando finishes 2nd (18 pts), Max has a window of finishing 3-5 (15-10 pts) before the average is eaten in to

I agree with all of you, from a mathematical/probability/statistical perspective.
But what makes me think that the
P(max-loses) = probability of Max losing championship
is higher than
P(nor-wins) = probability of Norris winning championship

is because P(max-loses) is not equal to 1 - P(nor-wins) , even though the two events may look complementary to each other. Let me explain a bit.

What the math/stats doesn't show is the 'qualitative difference' :

a) Most tracks from now until season end are medium-to-high DF tracks. The McLaren's pace advantage is massive on high-DF tracks, they have no weakness, are good in low-speed, medium-speed, high-speed and straights. In fact, in Singapore Noriss' advantage over Max was 1+ seconds on M and 0.7+ seconds on H. Realistically, even if that advantage comes down to 0.5+ on M and 0.3+ on H on some medium DF tracks, the kind of development that needs to happen to RB20, will need to be unrealistically stupendous.

b) There are two sprint races in the next 6 race weekends. We now know the trend where Redbull, because of their correlation problems, always have to have Friday track data in entirety, to even come to within a decent setup window in FP3 or some 'adjustments' post FP3. So, realistically we are talking about Redbull having only 'FP3' as their 'somewhere-near-90%optimal-setup' session. Because whatever settings is spitted out by the simulator, is useless. Their golden data is track-collected-friday-data. This massively dwindles their chances to 'get the car right' on normal weekends, which means the sprint weekends run a high probability of ending up with a disaster-setup.

c) The McLaren updates (if at all anymore come) will be bang-accurate. Their correlation is near perfect as shown by the fact that they haven't had to dial back a single component since the middle of 2023 & also by the fact that they are able to simply bolt on so many changes altogether in one shot - thanks to their amazing bang-upto-date windtunnel ; which churns up data very close to real world. For the exact same reason, their simulator-fed FP1 setup is 95% already-in on Friday morning. So by the time they get to FP3, they have 100% nailed the most optimum setup for the race.

These three reasons a,b,c are all mutually reinforcing each other => hence my heuristic guess in bold-text above

[avantman]

Of course being Mclaren fan you pretend your drivers have very marginal advantage in terms of machinery. And of course you will always try to make rivals car look faster than they really are. It's very typical behavior for a fanbase of any team. Very understandble, I've seen that all.
I don't extrapolate Lando dominant performance in Singapore on all calendar. I've been saying since Barcelona Mclaren had a car to win every race to come till the end of the year. Such was their advantage, conclusion I came to when I analysed the laptime data and the telemetry. Barcelona was supposed to be typical perfect Red bull track. Mclaren were faster, simply faster both over single lap (Max Q3 lap was flatter by slipstream from Perez worth 1-1,5 tenths) and even more so race pace and tire deg.
This car has been wasted by extremely poorly managed race team, underperforming drivers, that are very good, Lando in particularly, who's been consistently 2nd or 3rd best performing driver on the grid in my ranks since 2021. I rate him 2nd overall fastest driver on the grid, after Verstappen, but not quite Max Verstappen in terms of consistency and ability to deliver week in week out and extract the most out of race weekends, points scoring wise.
Max, even having some flaws (temper, which he can't always keep under control, being one of the most noticeable ones) is a full package. Lando (let alone Oscar), is not.
and of course operationally Mclaren race team is the weakest of the top 4, I think this is pretty obvious. Their missed calls in Canada, strategy they put Lando on in Barcelona, these kind of things are really inexcusable. Those missed fairly easy opportunities to win were not on Lando.
I dare to say, the technical advantage Mclaren have had since Miami is very similar, if not bigger than RBR had last year.
I dare to say, Max and RBR would've won all races with that Mclaren car since Miami. Certainly they had a car to do it, even if on some occasions their advantage was smaller, particularly over single quali lap, but their tire deg and race pace advantage was always there, ever since Miami, without single exception, their car was the fastest race car, in the hands of Lando of course, because Piastri has clearly not been on the same level. Very similar to 2023 and seconds part of 2022, where Red bull didn't necessarily have the fastest car over single lap, but near always the fastest race car. Max and the team just delivered.

I still believe Max will find the way to hang on to his lead and grab the championship in the end, but mostly not because he will get a car to fight with against Lando for wins, but rather because Lando and Mclaren race team will make more mistakes and miss more opportunities than Max and Red bull. It's really surreal to think that championship points wise, we are back to April level and China, 52-52 point was the gap. So, it's not all that gloomy for me as a fan.

[Juzh]

Juzh, any comment on today’s performance?

I missed the race and still havent watched it yet, but looking at results and comments around here it sure looks depressing

[avantman]

.
I don't hope he is leaving. He is a brilliant engineer and a very nice guy! I hope he will get a promotion and still be Max his nr1 engineer.

He might be brilliant, but he is a mechanic, not engineer.

[Macklaren]

Of course being Mclaren fan you pretend your drivers have very marginal advantage in terms of machinery. And of course you will always try to make rivals car look faster than they really are. It's very typical behavior for a fanbase of any team. Very understandble, I've seen that all.

Any chance that this applies to Max fans as well?

How would you rate Lando's driving this season to Max's in the first season that he really had a championship capable car (2021)

[avantman]

Of course being Mclaren fan you pretend your drivers have very marginal advantage in terms of machinery. And of course you will always try to make rivals car look faster than they really are. It's very typical behavior for a fanbase of any team. Very understandable, I've seen that all.

Any chance that this applies to Max fans as well?

How would you rate Lando's driving this season to Max's in the first season that he really had a championship capable car (2021)

Max 2021 was the best, I'd even say the greatest season I've ever seen from anyone, including the few following seasons of Max(including 2023). I guess that answers you question. I rated Lando 2nd best (and best performing) driver on 2021 by the way.
This year, i feel like Lando doesn't get enough credit and support from his own team, and that will always compromise performances of any driver. Any top driver, be it Michael Schumacher, Alonso, Vettel, Hamilton or Verstappen can deliver his best and perform at their highest level when they feel full support of their team, when they feel the calm confidence the whole team are on their side and work in the same direction . When they aren't forced to prove something within that team, rather when they know the team wants him to win. Lando hasn't had that at Mclaren. I of course have my ideas why, ever since they signed Piastri. So yes, we haven't seen the best of Lando yet, his ceiling is certainly higher than what we see now. Will we ever see his best at Mclaren though, led by Stella and Brown...I'm not sure.

[FittingMechanics]

Of course being Mclaren fan you pretend your drivers have very marginal advantage in terms of machinery. And of course you will always try to make rivals car look faster than they really are. It's very typical behavior for a fanbase of any team. Very understandble, I've seen that all.

Honestly this is very far from the truth. I truly don't care about drivers (I usually have a soft spot for ex McLaren drivers but am completely team fan). I would love if McLaren had a super dominant car until the end of the season. But the facts are not like that. McLaren had a dominant car in 3 high downforce tracks. On all others it was challenged by at least one team. If the team had a dominant car I'd say so, but it wasn't true. I am not against criticizing the team for their bad calls and they've made plenty of them but with a dominant car that wouldn't matter (like in Hungary for example).

I don't extrapolate Lando dominant performance in Singapore on all calendar.

Maybe not you specifically but a lot of others are guilty of such recency bias.

I completely agree that a mix of strategy mistakes and smaller mistakes have cost Lando a lot. It is also quite possible that Verstappen in that McLaren would have much more points, he is definitely as clinical as it gets at this stage of his career. But I still wouldn't think that car is dominant. That car is fast overall, on most tracks it is up there but it is not "Singapore dominant" in every race like RB19 used to be.

I sure hope that it becomes that dominant from Austin forward. Let's see what would happen if Lando can get 20+ seconds each race.

[avantman]

Mexico is probably a bad choice of a race to think McLaren is beatable. It is a high downforce track (though the air is less dense) so it should suit the McLaren just like Singapore, Zaandvoort and Hungaroring did.

Mexico by the way is low downforce and low grip track in general . Cars have less downforce there than in Monza, even if everyone put highest downforce package available on their cars. Also, in Mexico engine cooling can often be a limitation and from what I've seen in the past, it's less of an issue for Honda, more of an issue for Mercedes and their clients. Major performance limiting factor. Lastly, Max has been ridiculously good on that track, individually as a driver, as none of his teammate achieved comparable results and could maintain similar pace throughout race distance. It is also reasonably low deg track, very tough to overtake on. One stop race, provides very limited opportunities to play with strategy. and starting third doesn't put you in hopeless position at the start. I think he grabbed the lead in T1 twice when he started third. ('21,23) and when he started on the first row he was always in the lead on lap 1 as well (17, 18, 22). All those factors make me think Mexico will be the only race till the end of the year, where Max would have a chance to win if he takes the lead on lap 1, not relying on Mclaren/Lando DNF or big mistakes. on all other circuits without single exception, it will be impossible to defend the lead even if somehow get into the lead. It will be no different than Zandvoort.

[Juzh]

What to say of the race.. total destruction. Just looking at final gap makes it look better than it was. Without various adventures Norris is easily 35s or more ahead. If he were to actually push on hard tyre stint it could be 40-50s. I think Lec also had the legs on Max, but couldn't show it. In reality RB20 was the 3rd fastest car (again). Austin upgrade better deliver or it's gonna get messy - even more so than it already is.
WDC is hanging in the balance.

This is what domination truly looks like, those RB19 wins from last year don't come close.

[Macklaren]

Max 2021 was the best, I'd even say the greatest season I've ever seen from anyone, including the few following seasons of Max(including 2023). I guess that answers you question.

2021 Max's best even though he had a 40 point lead at one point and Lewis came within one lap of winning the championship?

(Don't reply because we don't want to relitigate 2021. Just pointing out that everyone has selective memories about their favorite drivers)

[Dunlay]

Max 2021 was the best, I'd even say the greatest season I've ever seen from anyone, including the few following seasons of Max(including 2023). I guess that answers you question.

2021 Max's best even though he had a 40 point lead at one point and Lewis came within one lap of winning the championship?

(Don't reply because we don't want to relitigate 2021. Just pointing out that everyone has selective memories about their favorite drivers)

It's undoubtedly one of the best seasons and close to perfect driving by a driver in F1 (not the GOAT s*** et al stuff debate, just one season). Max was faultless against the most experienced and a relentless championship campaigner. Arguing it without any data, evidence and bias free manner would be utterly disrespectful for such a great campaign. I am no driver fan, but that campaign was a masterclass in controlled driving at the edge, except for a brain fade in Monza and a bit in Brazil.

Personally for me the standout was his driving in Zandvoort. In front of packed home crowd for the first time with deafening noise and the pressure of championship, he delivered a stellar weekend.

[Juzh]

You are wasting your time dear Juzh...you surely don't think that guy has never seen all that before.

yeah, agreed tbh