2024 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[Quantum]

The problem is that Norris is gaining clarity. He is actually capable of winning all of the last 6 races with his speed. With every race that passes, he sharpens his craft. It's inevitable. All of the remaining tracks are high deg and easy overtaking circuits. As long as they have their speed and tire deg, and Red Bull have neither, the odds are not good.

I don't think Norris wins all 6 of remaining 6. He's only won 3 of 18 after all.
Key to the title is Ferrari. Do they take points of Max by finishing ahead of him or do they take it off of Lando by winning a couple of the races left? In either scenario its independent of Norris post nut clarity.

[djones]

I really cannot see Max losing the championship.

McLaren have been fools by allowing their drivers to race, even though it was clearly obvious they needed to stand behind one of them. Add Ferrari into the mix to take points away and I really think the points gap is just too much to catch back up.

To be fair to McLaren the fastest lap point in the last race was 100% out of their control.

[rbirules]

Norris has to gain more than 8 points per race between now and the end of the season

Despite having the fastest car since Miami, he hasn't managed that in a single GP apart from Australia where max DNF'd

???
Hun, Net, Ita....all with 8 points +

52 points (to tie max) across 6 race weekends is 8.6 points per weekend, 8 points per weekend is not enough.

Lando has outscored Max by exactly 8 points three times, which you've listed. He's yet to outscore him by 9 points or more (other than Australia) which he will have to do on average to over come a 52/53 point deficit in six race weekends, barring any DNFs.

One or two outcomes where he outscores Max by significantly more than 9 points would make it much easier, but again, he's yet to do that when Max had finished the race.

Max has 8 wins. If Norris wins the remaining 6 races he'll have 9 wins and will only need to tie Max's point total.

[Bill]

I really cannot see Max losing the championship.

McLaren have been fools by allowing their drivers to race, even though it was clearly obvious they needed to stand behind one of them. Add Ferrari into the mix to take points away and I really think the points gap is just too much to catch back up.

To be fair to McLaren the fastest lap point in the last race was 100% out of their control.

fools are leading the world constructor champion and are probably going to win it .they know how to motivate their drivers. The genius are going to lose

[Paa]

I think these predictions get way too specific knowing that all team will bring significant updates for Austin.
Probably we should wait and see how that race develops, then draw a line from there. I see 3 possible scenarios.

1. Max/RedBull is somehow at least around par with McLaren, then Verstappen should be able to bring it home. (~15%-20%)

2. Red Bull is clearly behind McLaren, but comfortably able to fight for podiums. Most likely outcome, and in this case it will be tight until the end. Possibly decided by some big point swings due to random events. Basically a coin toss. (50%+)

3. Red Bull is clearly behind McLaren and also Fer/Merc to some extent, having to fight around P5 in most races. In this case Lando will get there, even if not maximizing perfectly. (~30%).

Whichever of the above 3 happens in COTA, will give us a good indication on what to expect as probably that will be the last major upgrade package for the teams.

[DGP123]

https://x.com/ErikvHaren/status/1838578132812439726

Another important pawn is leaving Red Bull after many years. Chief strategist Will Courtenay is going to the big competitor McLaren and will become Sporting Director there. Red Bull will keep him on contract until mid-2026

RB slowly being dissected. Won’t be the last, as Mercedes found out. Max should secure this year, but you imagine his departure announcement for 26’ will suddenly hit at some point.

[Sergej]

so Will Courtenay in gardening leave till mid-2026 ? that's huuuuge

I would also assume that:
1 he won't be anymore on the pitwall, working for the "enemy"
2 Hannah will get a promotion

I also think Max will be out of this team in a couple of years.

[AR3-GP]

so Will Courtenay in gardening leave till mid-2026 ? that's huuuuge

I would also assume that:
1 he won't be anymore on the pitwall, working for the "enemy"
2 Hannah will get a promotion

I also think Max will be out of this team in a couple of years.

"Couple"? Max is gone after next year. It's what anyone capable of rational thought would do.

[basti313]

Norris has to gain more than 8 points per race between now and the end of the season

Despite having the fastest car since Miami, he hasn't managed that in a single GP apart from Australia where max DNF'd

???
Hun, Net, Ita....all with 8 points +

52 points (to tie max) across 6 race weekends is 8.6 points per weekend, 8 points per weekend is not enough.

Lando has outscored Max by exactly 8 points three times, which you've listed. He's yet to outscore him by 9 points or more (other than Australia) which he will have to do on average to over come a 52/53 point deficit in six race weekends, barring any DNFs.

One or two outcomes where he outscores Max by significantly more than 9 points would make it much easier, but again, he's yet to do that when Max had finished the race.

Max has 8 wins. If Norris wins the remaining 6 races he'll have 9 wins and will only need to tie Max's point total.

I did not start the calculation and I think it is nonsense.

My point is simply, it is Norris to loose. I am not saying he will or he will not. My feeling is he will screw up, but unfortunately...it is him to loose.

Why does the calculation not make any sense to me:
The only reason why it is just 8 points in some races and not more points is mostly that McLaren and Norris screwed up since Stone with either management, strategy or bad Q...the only races where Max on merit kept it at 8 points or below were Net and Spore. Unfortunately Spore is a different animal...the big luck was that Russel and both Ferrari screwed up their Q.
Calculating Norris winning everything and Max on P2 every time or any point statistics is just nonsense, sorry. With the current trajectory there will be big swings, they just did not happen because of luck.

[rbirules]

???
Hun, Net, Ita....all with 8 points +

52 points (to tie max) across 6 race weekends is 8.6 points per weekend, 8 points per weekend is not enough.

Lando has outscored Max by exactly 8 points three times, which you've listed. He's yet to outscore him by 9 points or more (other than Australia) which he will have to do on average to over come a 52/53 point deficit in six race weekends, barring any DNFs.

One or two outcomes where he outscores Max by significantly more than 9 points would make it much easier, but again, he's yet to do that when Max had finished the race.

Max has 8 wins. If Norris wins the remaining 6 races he'll have 9 wins and will only need to tie Max's point total.

I did not start the calculation and I think it is nonsense.

My point is simply, it is Norris to loose. I am not saying he will or he will not. My feeling is he will screw up, but unfortunately...it is him to loose.

Why does the calculation not make any sense to me:
The only reason why it is just 8 points in some races and not more points is mostly that McLaren and Norris screwed up since Stone with either management, strategy or bad Q...the only races where Max on merit kept it at 8 points or below were Net and Spore. Unfortunately Spore is a different animal...the big luck was that Russel and both Ferrari screwed up their Q.
Calculating Norris winning everything and Max on P2 every time or any point statistics is just nonsense, sorry. With the current trajectory there will be big swings, they just did not happen because of luck.

I don't disagree with any of that. Lots of possibilities still.

I was merely correcting your reply. Organic was correct, Norris needs to outscore Max by over 8 points per race (8.67 to be exact) to catch him. So far he's only done that when Max had a DNF in Australia. In three other races he's outscored Max by exactly 8 points, but on average even that won't be enough. Not that history (2024 season thus far) has to be used to predict future results (remainder of 2024 season).

[Mcl_G10]

For the record as a mclaren and lando fan I don't think he will overturn it but it is possible. I think he will just fall short and hungaroring will be the difference.

However, COTA is almost make or break for redbull is it? If they can't sort that car and get back to having a good baseline setup out of the box then things could potentially (albeit unlikely) slip away fast. We have to factor in sprint weekends and the very short amount of time to get the car right. Ferrari will be quick at all remaining races even if the are behind mclaren.

COTA
Sprint. Norris 8 (P1) Max 5 (P4)
Race. Norris 26 (P1, fl) Max 15 (P3)

Total, Norris 34, Max 20

14 point swing right there and I'd say that's quite possible to happen in COTA.

[organic]

For the record as a mclaren and lando fan I don't think he will overturn it but it is possible. I think he will just fall short and hungaroring will be the difference.

However, COTA is almost make of break for redbull is it? If they can't sort that car and get back to having a good baseline setup out of the box then things could potentially (albeit unlikely) slip away fast. We have to factor in sprint weekends and the very short amount of time to get the car right. Ferrari will be quick at all remaining races even if the are behind mclaren.

COTA
Sprint. Norris 8 (P1) Max 4 (P4)
Race. Norris 26 (P1, fl) Max 15 (P3)

Total, Norris 34, Max 19

15 point swing right there and I'd say that's quite possible to happen in COTA.

Correct. Horner said the scope of the upgrade for COTA is not set in stone. Perhaps they can't get everything they want on the car by then, in which case perhaps subsequent rounds can still deliver more improvement. But what's absolutely clear is that the rb20 must improve considerably with the cota adjustments (likely to at least contain the new floor designed to improve stability) or the run-in will be extremely difficult putting it mildly

[chrisc90]

For the record as a mclaren and lando fan I don't think he will overturn it but it is possible. I think he will just fall short and hungaroring will be the difference.

However, COTA is almost make or break for redbull is it? If they can't sort that car and get back to having a good baseline setup out of the box then things could potentially (albeit unlikely) slip away fast. We have to factor in sprint weekends and the very short amount of time to get the car right. Ferrari will be quick at all remaining races even if the are behind mclaren.

COTA
Sprint. Norris 8 (P1) Max 4 (P4)
Race. Norris 26 (P1, fl) Max 15 (P3)

Total, Norris 34, Max 19

15 point swing right there and I'd say that's quite possible to happen in COTA.

P4 in the sprint would attract 5 points not 4.

[organic]

I would also say that I can't see red bull allowing Norris fastest lap anymore. Checo may be sacrificed to prevent that at any cost (ie losing a couple of positions to deny it) as WCC is already lost. Most calculations show that if things continue the way they have been, it will be close at the end. Every point is likely to count.

[FittingMechanics]

I would also say that I can't see red bull allowing Norris fastest lap anymore. Checo may be sacrificed to prevent that at any cost (ie losing a couple of positions to deny it) as WCC is already lost. Most calculations show that if things continue the way they have been, it will be close at the end. Every point is likely to count.

This is very likely, especially if Perez is not in top 5.