2024 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[taperoo2k]

I would also say that I can't see red bull allowing Norris fastest lap anymore. Checo may be sacrificed to prevent that at any cost (ie losing a couple of positions to deny it) as WCC is already lost. Most calculations show that if things continue the way they have been, it will be close at the end. Every point is likely to count.

If things continue as they are, the title fight might come down to the final race of the season.
Redbull can try to stop Lando getting the fastest Lap every race, but it doesn't mean they will be successful. All it needs is a yellow or red flag just as Perez goes on softs to have lost points for no reason.

[Sergej]

I would also say that I can't see red bull allowing Norris fastest lap anymore. Checo may be sacrificed to prevent that at any cost (ie losing a couple of positions to deny it) as WCC is already lost. Most calculations show that if things continue the way they have been, it will be close at the end. Every point is likely to count.

If things continue as they are, the title fight might come down to the final race of the season.
Redbull can try to stop Lando getting the fastest Lap every race, but it doesn't mean they will be successful. All it needs is a yellow or red flag just as Perez goes on softs to have lost points for no reason.

Then try with the VCARB

[CjC]

I think Organic has a good point there, Red Bull will do anything to make Max the WDC again at the expense of the WCC, however I’m no disciple of Red Bull so I could be totally wrong

[sour]

here's how to stop Lando from winning

fit Checo with a new engine in Austin, gauge the engine to last only two races, take Austin super easy and then go banzai in Mexico City, super party mode in quali and 70 laps on full beans; then bin the engine and repeat for Interlagos-Vegas. Checo takes two wins, Lando two wins less.

welcome Max, don't thank me for having won you the title

This would be fun for the sheer chaos that would ensue

[AR3-GP]

I think the Austin update will work. Marko said it would return them to their winning ways. They think it's big enough to win again, not just finish 2nd.

[organic]

I think the Austin update will work. Marko said it would return them to their winning ways. So, they think it's big enough to win again, not just finish 2nd.

He also seemed completely shaken after Norris' Singapore stomping

"It's crazy how [Norris] drove away. Our deficit is alarming. We urgently need performance."

"Thank God we now have four weeks to work on it. There is still a lot to be done."

[Sergej]

I think the Austin update will work. Marko said it would return them to their winning ways. They think it's big enough to win again, not just finish 2nd.

you committed the "I want to believe" mode

[chrisc90]

Not even fussed about the WCC. Lower place means more tunnel and CFD allowance - something that will play helpful going into 2026

[Paa]

I think the Austin update will work. Marko said it would return them to their winning ways. They think it's big enough to win again, not just finish 2nd.

I'm sure they bring something substantial, but it still has to be proven on track.
They also believed Hungary package would be a game changer, and it wasn't. I mean it was, but not in a way they thought it would be.

Even if it works and they can match current McLaren, they'll also bring new parts for COTA. It is a moving target.

Don't get me wrong, I'm also optimistic, I' just wouldn't count my chickens to soon.

[TNTHead]

I think the Austin update will work. Marko said it would return them to their winning ways. They think it's big enough to win again, not just finish 2nd.

I'm sure they bring something substantial, but it still has to be proven on track.
They also believed Hungary package would be a game changer, and it wasn't. I mean it was, but not in a way they thought it would be.

Even if it works and they can match current McLaren, they'll also bring new parts for COTA. It is a moving target.

Don't get me wrong, I'm also optimistic, I' just wouldn't count my chickens to soon.

If they have severe correlation issues it is very difficult to judge the effect of models in the wind tunnel, of course. Therefore one would expect a reluctancy on prediction whether an update will deliver. I'll wait and see.

At least we are up to a tense battle towards the end of the season.

[avantman]

At least we are up to a tense battle towards the end of the season.

This is the saddest part - there won't be any battle. Only surviving hoping for rivals f*ck*ps...

[AR3-GP]

"I think the encouraging thing was the car reacted as we hoped it would and what our tools were telling us," he said of Singapore."I think the team are starting to get a direction and an understanding of where some of the limitations are and some of the causes of limitations. That opens up development paths and veins that hopefully will be productive.

"I think what Monza really exposed was perhaps some of the root cause, or helped to identify the root cause of the issue. So I'm taking Monza as the low point and we're starting to build out of that."

https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/4141 ... low-horner

[Watto]

"I think the encouraging thing was the car reacted as we hoped it would and what our tools were telling us," he said of Singapore."I think the team are starting to get a direction and an understanding of where some of the limitations are and some of the causes of limitations. That opens up development paths and veins that hopefully will be productive.

"I think what Monza really exposed was perhaps some of the root cause, or helped to identify the root cause of the issue. So I'm taking Monza as the low point and we're starting to build out of that."

https://www.espn.com/f1/story/_/id/4141 ... low-horner

As long as thats true and not just PR, it is hopefully good news. But as always talk is one thing (and I think you've been strong on that front too with RBR_ We will see I guess.

[ispano6]

52 points (to tie max) across 6 race weekends is 8.6 points per weekend, 8 points per weekend is not enough.

Lando has outscored Max by exactly 8 points three times, which you've listed. He's yet to outscore him by 9 points or more (other than Australia) which he will have to do on average to over come a 52/53 point deficit in six race weekends, barring any DNFs.

One or two outcomes where he outscores Max by significantly more than 9 points would make it much easier, but again, he's yet to do that when Max had finished the race.

Max has 8 wins. If Norris wins the remaining 6 races he'll have 9 wins and will only need to tie Max's point total.

I did not start the calculation and I think it is nonsense.

My point is simply, it is Norris to loose. I am not saying he will or he will not. My feeling is he will screw up, but unfortunately...it is him to loose.

Why does the calculation not make any sense to me:
The only reason why it is just 8 points in some races and not more points is mostly that McLaren and Norris screwed up since Stone with either management, strategy or bad Q...the only races where Max on merit kept it at 8 points or below were Net and Spore. Unfortunately Spore is a different animal...the big luck was that Russel and both Ferrari screwed up their Q.
Calculating Norris winning everything and Max on P2 every time or any point statistics is just nonsense, sorry. With the current trajectory there will be big swings, they just did not happen because of luck.

I don't disagree with any of that. Lots of possibilities still.

I was merely correcting your reply. Organic was correct, Norris needs to outscore Max by over 8 points per race (8.67 to be exact) to catch him. So far he's only done that when Max had a DNF in Australia. In three other races he's outscored Max by exactly 8 points, but on average even that won't be enough. Not that history (2024 season thus far) has to be used to predict future results (remainder of 2024 season).

There are also two remaining sprint races, each worth 8pt-1pts.

[rbirules]

I did not start the calculation and I think it is nonsense.

My point is simply, it is Norris to loose. I am not saying he will or he will not. My feeling is he will screw up, but unfortunately...it is him to loose.

Why does the calculation not make any sense to me:
The only reason why it is just 8 points in some races and not more points is mostly that McLaren and Norris screwed up since Stone with either management, strategy or bad Q...the only races where Max on merit kept it at 8 points or below were Net and Spore. Unfortunately Spore is a different animal...the big luck was that Russel and both Ferrari screwed up their Q.
Calculating Norris winning everything and Max on P2 every time or any point statistics is just nonsense, sorry. With the current trajectory there will be big swings, they just did not happen because of luck.

I don't disagree with any of that. Lots of possibilities still.

I was merely correcting your reply. Organic was correct, Norris needs to outscore Max by over 8 points per race (8.67 to be exact) to catch him. So far he's only done that when Max had a DNF in Australia. In three other races he's outscored Max by exactly 8 points, but on average even that won't be enough. Not that history (2024 season thus far) has to be used to predict future results (remainder of 2024 season).

There are also two remaining sprint races, each worth 8pt-1pts.

Correct, and there have already been sprint weekends in which Norris didn't outscore Max by more than 8 points.

It's of course possible, and only one or two big weekends are needed to get that average down considerably, but so far that has only happened when Max had a DNF.

I believe there are three sprint race remaining (COTA, Brazil, Qatar).