2024 Oracle Red Bull Racing F1 Team

[rbirules]

I did not start the calculation and I think it is nonsense.

My point is simply, it is Norris to loose. I am not saying he will or he will not. My feeling is he will screw up, but unfortunately...it is him to loose.

Why does the calculation not make any sense to me:
The only reason why it is just 8 points in some races and not more points is mostly that McLaren and Norris screwed up since Stone with either management, strategy or bad Q...the only races where Max on merit kept it at 8 points or below were Net and Spore. Unfortunately Spore is a different animal...the big luck was that Russel and both Ferrari screwed up their Q.
Calculating Norris winning everything and Max on P2 every time or any point statistics is just nonsense, sorry. With the current trajectory there will be big swings, they just did not happen because of luck.

I don't disagree with any of that. Lots of possibilities still.

I was merely correcting your reply. Organic was correct, Norris needs to outscore Max by over 8 points per race (8.67 to be exact) to catch him. So far he's only done that when Max had a DNF in Australia. In three other races he's outscored Max by exactly 8 points, but on average even that won't be enough. Not that history (2024 season thus far) has to be used to predict future results (remainder of 2024 season).

There are also two remaining sprint races, each worth 8pt-1pts.

Correct, and there have already been sprint weekends in which Norris didn't outscore Max by more than 8 points.

It's of course possible, and only one or two big weekends are needed to get that average down considerably, but so far that has only happened when Max had a DNF.

I believe there are three sprint race remaining (COTA, Brazil, Qatar).

[ispano6]

...
I believe there are three sprint race remaining (COTA, Brazil, Qatar).

So basically there's really 9 races in which either driver can score maximum or nothing.
The question really is how often Piastri, Leclerc, Sainz, Hamilton, Russell, and of course Checo perform enough to be in the way. What we do know is that the McLaren is in a good place the team is afraid to move away from. Even with the RB20 in a subpar state, Max was able to keep Piastri and rest of the field in check. With the RB20's gremlins behind them now, it may be the Max can take the fight to Lando.

https://www.motorsport.com/f1/news/how- ... /10657561/
...
Head scratching in Singapore was followed by a late-night engineering session at the factory and in the Red Bull simulator in Milton Keynes, with Sebastien Buemi to try to improve the set-up and work out what was going wrong.

As team boss Christian Horner said of Buemi's work: “He was consuming plenty of Red Bull to keep him going. He played an important part, as does the whole team, in working hard with long days and long nights.”

Eventually the team found its eureka moment and got to the bottom of what was wrong with its car.
And it all revolved around its bruising encounter from 2023, when it had struggled massively with the track characteristics – opening the door for Ferrari and Carlos Sainz to triumph.

The conclusion was that amid concerns about a repeat of problems over Singapore’s kerbs and bumps this year, Red Bull had taken a too conservative approach with its mechanical set-up to cope with the track characteristics.

However, in focusing so much on improving its ride, in the belief that this was the best route to help Verstappen and Perez, it had ultimately sacrificed too much performance.

There wasn’t enough mechanical grip, and the result was that the tyres were not getting up into the right operating window.

For Saturday, Red Bull elected to sacrifice some of those better ride elements and focus more on pure performance - which suddenly helped the RB20 come alive.
...

It was pretty noticeable that Lando was riding the kerbs with no hesitation where as Max carefully avoided them. It seems that the RB20 is still too nervous to take over the kerbs with confidence or Max didn't want to find out the hard way and played it safe. They will find out in Austin if they can ride the kerbs again. In times like these, they really need Checo to step up and be in the equation. They will need him to provide the tow and be Minister of Defense again.

[Sergej]

I think the Austin correction will be mainly aerodynamical; kerb riding problem lies in the suspension so I think it won't be fully solved before next year.

[Henk_v]

redbull front wing look simply it lacks sophistication compared to mercedes ,how did they miss the flexy wings for which they were the pioneer. The focused more on floor for downforce but made car more difficult to drive .the is were newey leadership direction would have been important.

I was just thinking about this. Red Bull completely ignored the wings during recent years, focusing almost entirely on the floor and to some extent to the sidepods. The saying was that there are much more to be gained from floor, which was probably true for the first 1-2 years. However, I think they got the the point where only marginal gains can be made with the floor or only at the cost of stability/driveability.

And now it seems obvious that their wing game is very basic compared to other teams. All other top teams have more variants suiting different track types and they also have more sophisticated solutions both front and rear.

Maybe Red Bull should look into that. It is possible that they beyond the direct gains of wing development, they could unlock extra potential on top by finding synergies.

I have been pointing that out since the RB18. It is a shame the top view side-by-side comparison pictures dried up. RB was having both the lowest area and the least cranked wing.

They made their life easy regarding to floor development.

Other teams seem to have learned how to get more downforce and/or flow structuring from the front wing without hurting floor performance. More front wing downforce means more options for high df rear wings too without hurting balance too much.

As development progressed RB lost the luxury of a high df floor with the center of downforce forward.

So we now see a front limited RB, and a team that needs to sacrifice balance for df and / or kerbriding

[Jurgen von Diaz]

They should have sacked Horner when the harassment scandal came to light. After that, he made statements that were unflattering towards Newey. Then Horner fired shots at Marko about his text messages being leaked. Great work environment, by the way. Then Newey left, along with a couple of other key staff members. Now, Red Bull is falling apart. Can't figure out who to blame for it other than Horner?

[Cassius]

They should have sacked Horner when the harassment scandal came to light. After that, he made statements that were unflattering towards Newey. Then Horner fired shots at Marko about his text messages being leaked. Great work environment, by the way. Then Newey left, along with a couple of other key staff members. Now, Red Bull is falling apart. Can't figure out who to blame for it other than Horner?

Marshall, Wheatley, Courtenay left because they weren't being promoted. The only way in that case is to move to another team in this budget cap era.

The ones they want to keep have been offered promotions or pay rises (GP, Wache, etc).

So RB falling apart is a bit of a hyperbole. Plenty of remaining talent. You just see the effect of the budget cap.

[Sergej]

[Jurgen von Diaz]

They should have sacked Horner when the harassment scandal came to light. After that, he made statements that were unflattering towards Newey. Then Horner fired shots at Marko about his text messages being leaked. Great work environment, by the way. Then Newey left, along with a couple of other key staff members. Now, Red Bull is falling apart. Can't figure out who to blame for it other than Horner?

Marshall, Wheatley, Courtenay left because they weren't being promoted. The only way in that case is to move to another team in this budget cap era.

The ones they want to keep have been offered promotions or pay rises (GP, Wache, etc).

So RB falling apart is a bit of a hyperbole. Plenty of remaining talent. You just see the effect of the budget cap.

Red Bull is losing key personnel at the same time that it is losing the WCC and, in the worst-case scenario, the WDC. If this is not meaning of falling apart, I don't know what is. The next big thing might be Max if he is leaving.

[Emag]

It happens with every team at some point. You can't keep a well-oiled machine running for too long, things will start to slip up at some point, people lose motivation, people lose their edge. Wit that being said, I didn't expect RedBull's second reign to take such a hit on the third year. After late 2022 & 2023, I just expected them to run with titles and victories until the new rules in 2026 at least, but what happened with Horner can't be ignored and I do think it was the catalyst for many things going wrong, starting with the departure of Adrian Newey.

[Cassius]

They should have sacked Horner when the harassment scandal came to light. After that, he made statements that were unflattering towards Newey. Then Horner fired shots at Marko about his text messages being leaked. Great work environment, by the way. Then Newey left, along with a couple of other key staff members. Now, Red Bull is falling apart. Can't figure out who to blame for it other than Horner?

Marshall, Wheatley, Courtenay left because they weren't being promoted. The only way in that case is to move to another team in this budget cap era.

The ones they want to keep have been offered promotions or pay rises (GP, Wache, etc).

So RB falling apart is a bit of a hyperbole. Plenty of remaining talent. You just see the effect of the budget cap.

Red Bull is losing key personnel at the same time that it is losing the WCC and, in the worst-case scenario, the WDC. If this is not meaning of falling apart, I don't know what is. The next big thing might be Max if he is leaving.

That is just correlation and I am not sure it can all be contributed to personnel. It is just natural and the effect of being outdeveloped with limited options to correct in a wind tunnel / cfd constraint team.

They still lead the WDC, they went into a wrong development direction and are correcting it as good as the budget cap allows. If they don't close the gap to McL next year and start as 3rd or 4rd team, then I would agree with you.

[AR3-GP]

That is just correlation and I am not sure it can all be contributed to personnel. It is just natural and the effect of being outdeveloped with limited options to correct in a wind tunnel / cfd constraint team.

They still lead the WDC, they went into a wrong development direction and are correcting it as good as the budget cap allows. If they don't close the gap to McL next year and start as 3rd or 4rd team, then I would agree with you.

It doesn't matter what the reason is or whether a single person or regulation is to blame. That is just noise. The simple fact is that the "dream team" at RBR is no more. Newey, Marshall, Courtenay, Wheatley, and many more. This is Red Bull's Mt. Rushmore. This can be compared with the departure of key figures during the Schumacher-Ferrari era and the Mercedes era from 2014-2021. Trying to find someone to blame doesn't matter. What matters (for Max, for example), is that when these kinds of paradigm shifts take place within a team, nothing good comes from it. History has shown this many times in Formula. Red Bull is not immune. The figures that remain will have to prove themselves all over again.

[Paa]

There's this video by Driver61


It is mostly about Merc's struggles in the ground effect era. But at one point it mentions that wind tunnel needs runs from time to time just to calibrate and make sure correlation is good. I did not realize so far that these correlation runs are also eating up ATR allocation. I thought that the wind-tunnel allocation is only limiting performance runs.

Anyway, it is very possible that Red Bull also neglected the correlation runs, especially last year when they were extra short on wind tunnel time and wanted to focus all their runs on performance. It is a very good example on how ATR can hurt the leading teams.

[Vanja #66]

Red Bull is losing key personnel at the same time that it is losing the WCC and, in the worst-case scenario, the WDC. If this is not meaning of falling apart, I don't know what is. The next big thing might be Max if he is leaving.

In that case every other team is falling apart at the moment

[Jurgen von Diaz]

Red Bull is losing key personnel at the same time that it is losing the WCC and, in the worst-case scenario, the WDC. If this is not meaning of falling apart, I don't know what is. The next big thing might be Max if he is leaving.

In that case every other team is falling apart at the moment

When Jos Verstappen said the team will fall apart if Horner stays, at that point Red Bull was dominant. Look where Red Bull is now. Crazy Jos is prophet!

[Vanja #66]

When Jos Verstappen said the team will fall apart if Horner stays, at that point Red Bull was dominant. Look where Red Bull is now. Crazy Jos is prophet!

The person making false acusations public with "anonymous" leak? Some prophet